Indiana vs Notre Dame Predictions and Preview | Top College Football Playoff Picks

Expert college football analyst Ron Marmalefsky looks at the College Football Playoff matchup of Indiana vs Notre Dame before kickoff!

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College Football Playoff Overview

Expanding the playoffs from four to twelve is a blessing and a curse.  12 is too much, and we’ve already seen how it can cheapen some title games (SEC and Big Ten). 

On the other hand, it creates excitement for more teams, as Penn State, Tennessee, and others can now enter the postseason. 

It also means more teams will NOT lose players to the portal, enabling games to be played with known starters. 

The best news: It creates a game like this one.  I implored the Committee to make this matchup happen back in late October. 

Handicapping aside, this is my favorite bowl game of the season.

Indiana Football Preview

I have never understood why Indiana football was so irrelevant. 

Enter Curt Cignetti. This was the “James Madison experiment”.  Could a roster of (good) Sun Belt starters produce, not just in a Power Five conference, but in one of the top two NCAA conferences. Google Curt (his famous line). He wins! 

His rush ratio was 5.1+-3.05, and they allowed a mere 88 yards per game, corrected for sacks.  Maryland’s 30-145 was the best effort against them. 

Ohio State ran 29-116. That game got away from Indiana, partly due to special team miscues and untimely turnovers.  Notre Dame will test their run defense, but I don’t think this is how the Irish will win the game. 

The bigger issue is this: Can Indiana’s run game take the pressure off QB Rourke?  Their two RB’s (used in equal amounts) ran about 5.5 per carry.  The team ran 30-224 vs. Nebraska, 50-194 vs. Washington, 27-72 vs. Michigan, and 40-118 vs. Ohio State. 

Like it or not, this run game MUST produce or else there could be offensive trouble.  Rourke had a great season, but in his two toughest games he went 25-46 in total. 

Given Notre Dame’s pass defense (see below), I see a ceiling of 55%, which could be lower if the run game has issues. 

The good news is that Indiana spreads the ball around, with several capable targets.  Unlike Notre Dame, Indiana’s pass defense is the “weaker link” on this side of the ball. 

Maryland went 26-39.  Ohio State went 22-28.  Those are the closest to the dual threat option Indiana will face here.  To win this battle the Hoosiers must win on early downs. 

Indiana has the kicking edge.  They produced 34 defensive sacks, and may need to win in that area as well. 

One additional concern: Their kickoff specialist produced just a 27% touchback figure.  Past Notre Dame teams have exploited this part of the game.

Notre Dame Football Preview

Last year at this time half of Notre Dame’s roster was missing.  Luckily for them, the defense was mainly intact, and they were playing an Oregon State team in complete free fall (no starters, no coaches).  I think Marcus Freeman is a top-notch Head Coach, especially defensively. 

They didn’t play many great teams, but still, averaging 40+ points per game is impressive.  Notable games include the 23-13 opening day win at A&M, a 31-24 win vs. Louisville, and the closing 49-35 victory at USC. 

Riley Leonard is a more than solid two-way threat.  While he played only two teams comparable to Indiana, his combined stat sheet in those games was 34-45 passing and 25-102 rushing. 

For the season he ran 5.8 per carry, with 14 rushing TD’s.  Maybe Indiana can slow him down a bit, but he still produced 80 points in these games. 

The offense has two elite RB’s (both over seven yards per carry) and a variety of capable, although not spectacular WR’s and TE’s.  As a reminder, all 1^st round playoff games are home games. 

Notre Dame was sacked just 15 times, as Leonard is elusive.  I have Leonard hitting in excess of 60% here, and running for 50-60 yards. 

No team scored more than 16 points on the Irish until USC hung 35 on them in the finale.  Even in that game, USC’s QB was just 27-49, and was intercepted twice.  The 48.7% pass D was quite impressive. 

They face a strong QB, but have proven to limit most, if not all QB’s this season.  The run defense was projected by me at 4.0 per carry, and finished at 4.05. 

This is the area that Indiana must exploit, or otherwise the Irish will dictate defensively.  As long as Indiana’s game plan is varied, I think Notre Dame will be average vs. Indiana’s rush. 

I have seen times where Indiana passed a bit too much.  If that is the case, Notre Dame and its +12 interception margin becomes an asset. 

Kicking was an adventure this season.  8-17 for a major college program is unacceptable.  The touchback rate is a bit low (44%).

Indiana vs Notre Dame: Keys To The Game

For Indiana, they must contain Leonard and the RB’s, because their pass defense is just average, and could be exploited. 

Conversely, they must make their own run game work, as Notre Dame’s pass defense is special.  They can NOT let down in the return game, offensively or defensively, like what happened vs. Ohio State. 

Notre Dame must contain QB Rourke, and not get into the same defensive rut that they did vs. USC, another team with run-pass balance. 

As for special teams, it would help if Notre Dame’s PK was not a liability.  That first attempted kick will be one he needs to make.

Indiana vs Notre Dame Predictions: Indiana +8.5 / Ke’Shawn Williams OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards

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