Iowa State vs Arizona State Predictions – Big 12 Championship Preview and Picks 12/7/24

The Arizona State Sun Devils and Iowa State Cyclones head to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX on Saturday December 7, 2024 to battle for the Big 12 Championship!

Can Arizona State win a Big 12 Championship in their first year in the conference? Get free picks for the Big 12 Championship from The GoldSheet below!

Iowa State vs Arizona State Trends and Angles

The favorite has won each of the last 12 neutral-site editions of the Big XII Championship Game.

Arizona State finished the regular season with the second-best record against the spread this season at 10-2 (behind Marshall).

The Sun Devils have won-and-covered each of their last five games. The last seven times that a team has entered its conference championship on a 5+ game win streak, they have gone 2-5 straight-up, 0-6-1 against the spread.

Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has typically been great as an underdog, going 36-23-3 against the spread. The under is 40-21-1 in those games.

This will likely be Iowa State’s second game as an underdog this season after the Cyclones pulled the small upset over Iowa for the CyHawk in September.

Iowa State vs Arizona State Analysis

This is Arizona State’s first year in the Big 12, so welcome to the party! This is Iowa State’s second trip to the conference title game, losing to Oklahoma in 2020.

The big news in this one is the injury to Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who injured his collarbone against Arizona last week. Tyson finished the regular season with 75 catches for 1,101 yards and ten receiving touchdowns.

His absence will certainly be felt, but we’re still looking toward the over in this contest. Four of Arizona State’s last five games have gone over the total.

When you take a team like Iowa State, who has been playing in cold temperatures for the last six weeks, and put them on the fast turf at AT&T Stadium: They look a lot faster. Since the beginning of November, Iowa State’s games have been played in Iowa (3x), Kansas and Utah.

Three of those games were played at night. The gametime temperature in Iowa State’s win over Kansas State was 24-degrees last week.

Watch what happens when you put a group like that on the fast turf in a dome. Since the Big 12 began playing the conference championship game at AT&T Stadium in 2017, these games have seen an average of 55.9 points per game. 

Iowa State vs Arizona State Prediction

Five of the seven contests would have gone over this number in the low-50s. Arizona State’s offense is top-20 in EPA per play, EPA per pass attempt, EPA per rush attempt, success rate, rushing success rate, early-down success rate and third down success rate.

In a controlled dome environment, look for Iowa State QB Rocco Becht to look like the player from the beginning of the season, and not one that was playing in 18 mile per hour winds in November.

Iowa State vs Arizona State Prediction: Over 51

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