Iowa State vs Texas Big XII Football Predictions: Nov 6

Iowa State vs Texas Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Kevin Dolan offers his Iowa State vs Texas Big XII football betting preview for Saturday, November 6 at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. At the time of posting, the Cyclones are a -6.5 home favorite over the Longhorns with the total sitting at 60.5 points.

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Iowa State vs Texas Predictions

Iowa State Cyclones -6.5 vs Texas Longhorns
Total: 60.5 Points
The last six meetings between Texas and Iowa State have stayed under the total.
Iowa State is 1-3 against the spread at home this season.

The Texas Longhorns travel to Iowa State this Saturday off the back of a three game losing streak but face an uphill battle as they look to get their first win in over a month against one of the nations best defensive teams in the Cyclones this weekend.

After starting the season 4-1 and averaging 46.8 points per game over their first four starts, Texas have faltered of late, seeing a decline of over 14 points per game over their last three starts from that opening season average and have also put up 82.5 yards less on average over that same stretch as well.

However, that’s come as no real surprise as Texas’ strength of schedule has ticked up considerably over recent weeks in overall defensive proficiency.

Both Baylor, and especially Oklahoma State, were huge improvements defensively from Texas’ four game streak previously against Rice, Texas Tech, TCU and Oklahoma respectively. In fact, those four teams had an average defensive ranking of 112th nationally, so it’s come as little surprise to see the Longhorns struggle as much as they have offensively over the last few weeks.

Iowa State meanwhile came off a surprise 38-31 loss to West Virginia last week. The Cyclones put up just 16 first downs in that game against the Mountaineers in a game where they gave up a rare 14 4th Q points in.

However, Iowa State’s defense has been outstanding this season for the most part. The Cyclones rank 15th in the nation on total defense this year giving up just 291.5 yards per game on average. They are also 11th on total first downs allowed at 129, 11th on fewest rushing touchdowns allowed at just 6, 14th on rushing defense at 101.9 yards per game and 13th on total yards per rush allowed this season at 3.1 yards per carry.

Those numbers don’t bode well here for a Texas team that has stagnated offensively of late, and potentially looking a little out of steam as well approaching the back end of the season. Their late game collapse last week against Baylor after holding a double digit lead mid-way through the 3rd quarter was telling and they’ll need to play right until the end here on Saturday if they’re to have any chance of winning this game against a much more dynamic defensive team in Iowa State.

Overall, -6.5, despite all of Texas’ issues against solid defensive teams this year, is just a little too much to lay on Iowa State in this spot. A better way in here in my opinion is to take the Under 60.5 points in a game I personally have pegged to be lower scoring this weekend. Only Baylor and West Virginia have broken the 30 point barrier against Iowa State this season and Baylor were extremely fortunate in that game also, losing nearly every metric in that matchup, bar the final score.

I see Texas being severely limited offensively in this game and by the same token, I don’t expect a ton of points from an Iowa State team averaging just 29.3 points per game over their last three starts either.

Overall, I see this being a lower scoring game on Saturday and recommend a play on the Under 60.5 points in the game between Texas and Iowa State for this weekend.

6-1 now to start the NBA season after cashing last night again on the Rockets 🚀

— Kevin ‘The Irishman’ Dolan (@TheSportsWolf83) November 3, 2021

Iowa State vs Texas Analysis from The GoldSheet

Only the Texas Rangers’ bullpen seems to have blown more leads than the Longhorns, whose latest kick-away came last week at Baylor when the Bears came back on Steve Sarkisian’s crew. On the heels of blowing double-digit leads vs. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, it’s got more than a few Texas-exes wondering if Sark is really an upgrade from the deposed Tom Herman (we’re hardly sure anymore, either). It’s also not lost upon some Big XII observers that league foes might be digging in a bit more than usual against the ‘Horns, soon off to the SEC. Complicating any anti-Texas sentiment, however, is the disappointing Iowa State, which has far undershot expectations to the point HC Matt Campbell has suddenly fallen behind hot names like Luke Fickell and Mel Tucker for big job openings like LSU and USC. Texas still has had a real look at its last three losses, and competitive recent series history (last two decided by five points total) suggests that taking the points might be the best course of action.

Iowa State vs Texas Video Preview

Each of the last six meetings between Texas and Iowa State have stayed under the total. Are we in for another defensive struggle on Saturday? WagerTalk college football handicappers Kevin Dolan, Bryan Leonard and Drew Martin offer their Iowa State vs Texas Big XII football preview.

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