Las Vegas Bowl Picks and Odds | Wisconsin vs Arizona State

Las Vegas Bowl Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Las Vegas Cris, with the assistance of Ron W, offers his Wisconsin vs Arizona State Las Vegas Bowl betting preview for Thursday, December 30. At the time of posting, the Badgers from the Big Ten are holding steady as a 6-point favorite over the Sun Devils from the Pac-12, with the total sitting at 41 points.

Stay on top of the latest College Football updates direct from Las Vegas!

Las Vegas Bowl	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	Wisconsin Badgers -6 vs Arizona State Sun Devils
Total:	41 Points
Game Time:	10:30pm ET / 7:30pm PT on Thursday, December 30
Stadium:	Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas
TV:	ESPN

Las Vegas Bowl Analysis

ASU was projected as a nine-win team, with plenty of returning talent on both sides of the ball. Even at 8-4 I feel they underachieved. Wisky also went 8-4, losing a shot at the Big Ten title game when they lost 23-13 hosting Minnesota. Which team, if any is really pumped up to play in a non-New Year’s Day bowl game?

Arizona State Sun Devils

Amazingly, only one game for ASU was decided by under ten points. They were 6-3 in the PAC 12. The rush ratio was a stout 5.6-4.05, their accurate QB hit 66+% and their pass D was at 59.45, which was right on my projected total. QB Daniels has talent and running prowess, but the staff preferred to run the ball. Their top two RB’s were unstoppable, but will be stopped in this game, as both have opted out. Next up is a lightly used freshman who did not play in games 11-12.

Wisky allowed 123 or fewer yards to all but Army, who still fell well below its 340 yard average when they went 50-187. ASU ran 171 or greater in 10-12 but won’t come close to that number unless QB Daniels lights it up running the ball.

Broken plays on scrambling could lead to success through the air for ASU. Despite holding ND and Michigan down in the run game, Wisky allowed those teams to score a combined 79 points. The hidden factor was turnovers however, as they were a combined -6 vs. those teams. ASU’s sack ratio was 25-21. Their kicker was lightly used, going 6-11.

Wisconsin Badgers

Wisky is not a high scoring team, playing old school football. In this day and age where college point totals are on the board at about 55-57 per game, Wisky’s over-under for points in their games never crossed 43 in BIG Ten games! Bowl teams held them to an average of 20.5 points per game. The overall point ratio was 26-16.5. RB Allen assumed command during the season and will be a load to stop. I project him to go 23-130+ here.

QB Mertz is Wisky’s typical game manager. He was pedestrian in 2021, at 58.7% with just a 9-10 ratio. Obvious 3rd down pass plays are not in Wisky’s wheelhouse. It’s strange, as they have a trio of senior WR/TE types who have talent. TE Ferguson is the most consistent of the trio and could be a late round NFL draft pick.

It appears that ASU will be without both starting CB’s for this game. That could mean a big play or two from one of the seniors, even with an erratic QB at the helm. Wisky had a 33-15 sack ratio. Kicking came in at 15-20

Keys to the Las Vegas Bowl

It’s perhaps all up to elusive QB Daniels for ASU. I’ve seen him make bonehead plays, but he’s also going to be more athletic than much of what Wisky has in their front seven. TE Hodges has to deliver. Defensively, if ASU stops RB Allen and forces Mertz to pass that could be a real good thing, even with some players missing. If they can’t stop Allen then the play action pass could hurt. In games 1-6 the Badgers had a -7 turnover ratio. That flipped in the 2nd half of the year. If they are careful with the football, then they are the much-deserved favorite.

Las Vegas Bowl Prediction

At -7 or less Wisky is the rush pick if all hands were on deck, but without ASU’s top two backs it’s a certain advantage. They are 57-38 ATS in that role (4-2 in 2021). Under herm Edwards, ASU is 2-5 ASU when not the pick.

In recent news, a real solid LB may miss the game for ASU, and three DL were not practicing earlier this week (I write this on 12/23). I gave 6.5. The line is down to 6 now. I’m thinking it might rise come game time. I’ve left room to middle if it goes up. ASU has the fiery Herm Edwards as coach, and he’ll try his best to motivate them.

My ONLY worry with Wisky other than their QB, if put in obvious pass situations is their own motivation. This bowl is about two steps down for them. On paper, this might be a mismatch. Let’s see how it plays out. Be motivated, and stop QB Daniels and this should be a solid win.

Interested in placing a bet on Thursday’s Las Vegas Bowl? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

👀🤑 @thegoldsheet is feeling the Holiday Spirit! From today until January 2nd, you can have FREE ACCESS to the Gold Sheet.
1⃣ Head over to https://t.co/AXasP2W2lw.
2⃣ Sign in with Username: Free@GoldSheet.com
Password: FREE
3⃣Enjoy NFL, CFB, NBA, and CBB! pic.twitter.com/V3irjZNsEl

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) December 24, 2021

Las Vegas Bowl Preview from GoldSheet

Wisconsin’s theme all season was that the defense played well, but the offense was a one-armed fighter with a limited air game due to the QB talent level. Arizona State took some body blows personnel-wise since the end of the regular season, with star RB Rachaad White (1006 YR, 15 TDs plus 43 catches for 456 yds. and 1 TD) opting to withdraw from the bowl game, accept a Senior Bowl bid and prepare for the NFL draft. The Sun Devil defense also took a double hit in the 2ndary, as CBs Chase Lucas and Jack Jones likewise decided their NFL future was more important than helping the Sun Devils win the Las Vegas Bowl. That leaves dynamic QB Jayden Daniels as the main offensive weapon for HC Herm Edwards’ ASU side, and thankfully for Sun Devil fans, he said he’s returning to play another season despite being draft-eligible.

Daniels has been inconsistent since his 2019 season but is a dual threat this year with 6 rush TDs. Still, even with White producing, the offense was only 68th in the country, and the loss of both corners takes away the best part of the defense, which ranked 15th in pass efficiency D. Another concern is that the program is still operating with an elephant in the room of potential NCAA sanctions, a situation which hasn’t been resolved yet, and Herm Edwards remains on thin ice.

Paul Chryst is taking the Badgers to their 7th straight bowl appearance in his 7 seasons in Madison, and Wisconsin had covered 5-1 in the previous 6 such affairs under Chryst. Arizona State has been through a good deal of turmoil on a couple of fronts under Herm Edwards, and the distraction of having some top talent siphoned off by hopes for improving draft status is a legitimate problem. Wisconsin reportedly has bounced back from the disappointment of the Minnesota loss and has regained excitement for this bowl matchup.

Las Vegas Bowl Stats

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the Las Vegas Bowl before diving into this FREE download.

Las Vegas Bowl Video Preview

WagerTalk college football handicappers Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Tony Mejia and Bryan Leonard offer their Las Vegas Bowl betting preview on College Football Daily.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this Las Vegas Bowl showdown between Wisconsin and Arizona State, from your desktop or phone.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.