Louisville Football Predictions, Betting Tips & Team Preview 2023: WagerTalk Best Betting Guide

Louisville Football Predictions & Preview 2023:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Cardinals chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on Louisville football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for Louisville football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Cardinals this season.

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Louisville Football Preview 2023: Louisville Picks for Betting

I do not like placing season win OVER plays, but Louisville seemed like a value play to go over their posted six-win total (some shops had it 6.5). 

Two excruciating close losses had them at 2-3, but the Cards met my expectations related to defensive improvement and finished 7-5, plus a bowl victory.  Jeff Brohm turned down coaching at his alma mater a few years ago, but this time the timing was right.  Expectations are for another bowl berth, and perhaps continued improvement.

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Louisville Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH

Teams undergoing scheme changes are not nearly as vulnerable as in the past thanks to the transfer portal.  That could make for a more seamless transition, but the Cards, who have lived with a run attack that always averages more than five yards per carry will now likely drop down to more modest levels.  Brohm coached QB Plummer in the past and I expect he’ll be just fine passing the ball.  T

he leading RB DOES return, so it will be interesting to see if the run O exceeds my expectations.  The OL will have three new faces and the returning starters will need to learn a new blocking scheme.  Both the run defense and the pass defense improved last season. 

Had they not flat out given away two early games the team would have been 9-3, as all five conference wins were by 14 points or more.  I expect defensive regression this year, partly due to my evaluation of the new staff, and partly due to losing three players to the NFL.  Replicating 43 regular season sacks (and seven more in the bowl win) will not be easy.  Kicking is solid, and that might help in close game situations.  The regular season turnover ratio was +9.  I expect regression here as well.

Louisville 2023 Predictions, Louisville Schedule:

The good news is that even though I feel the team won’t be as good as in 2022, the schedule is easier, with both FSU and Clemson out of the picture. 

The three earlier ACC games are Georgia Tech (opener, in Atlanta), home to BC (one-point loss in ’22, close wins at home), and at NC State (very even history). 

4-1 is possible with a 2-1 record in these games, plus a win at Indiana (likely favored), but I’m predicting 3-2, as I see too many changes for the Cards to hit the ground running.  The next three games are home to ND, at Pitt (Pitt revenge and a week off) and home to improved Duke.  Is 1-2 the ceiling in these games?  If so, they could be just 4-4 at this point, but with an excellent shot at getting to 6-4 if they hold serve at home vs. VT and Virginia.  Louisville closes at Miami and home to rival Kentucky.  The history is 50-50 when they play the Wildcats.

Louisville Football Bottom Line:

The easier ACC schedule helps, but can Louisville get out to a solid start to make earning a bowl berth a bit easier?  Brohm has proven to be a better coach than I originally thought, but his coordinators are a step down from what was here in 2022, and on paper, the defense does not look as stout.  Close game kicking is an advantage, but turnovers are expected to regress. 

There’s a chance for a 4-0 start, which always increases buy in for a new staff.  To exceed 7-5, much has to go right.

Louisville Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

Based on the soft early schedule, Louisville is a prime team to fade if they are not a rush pick after the requisite four-game waiting period.  Remember, new coaches who are not rush picks are 116-177 ATS lately, and about 59% historically with a very large sample size.  Other than that, I’ll watch the defensive numbers closely.  

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