Michigan State vs Western Kentucky Predictions and Odds (10/2)

Michigan State vs Western Kentucky Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Steve Merril offers his Michigan State vs Western Kentucky College Football Week 5 betting preview. At the time of posting, the Spartans are an 11-point home favorite over the Hilltoppers with the total sitting at 66 points.

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MSU vs WKU Prediction

Michigan State remains underrated this season as my power ratings make the Spartans a -16.5 favorite in this game. They are 4-0 SU and have won three of those four games by at least 17+ points already. Western Kentucky has put up big offensive numbers against three mediocre defensive opponents, and the Hilltoppers will now be taking a substantial step up versus a strong Michigan State defense that allows just 18.0 points per game and 4.9 yards per play this season. Western Kentucky is a much weaker defensive team that allows 30.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play. Michigan State will have plenty of success moving the ball tonight with a balanced offense that is averaging 35.3 points per game with 216 rushing yards (5.9 ypr) and 238 passing yards (8.8 ypp) with a fantastic 7.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 6.2 ypp overall).

The main reason this point spread is too low is because Western Kentucky has gone 3-0 ATS so far this season. However, the Hilltoppers have not won either game straight-up versus their two FBS opponents this season, with a 38-35 loss at Army, followed by a tough 33-31 loss at home versus Indiana last Saturday. Back-to-back high scoring, close losses often leaves teams fatigued and flat in the following game, and that will likely be the situation tonight on Saturday, especially against a powerful and strong Michigan State lineup.

Western Kentucky struggled when stepping up in class as a big underdog last year, going 0-3 ATS and losing by 14 points at Louisville (+13.5), by 21 points at UAB (+10.5) and losing by 31 points at BYU (+30.5). This was also the case in 2019 when they lost by 17 points versus Louisville on a neutral field (+10). Overall, Western Kentucky is 0-4 SU/ATS as a double-digit underdog with current head coach Tyson Helton at the helm. Play MICHIGAN STATE (-11).

Great episode today… #CFB and #NFL betting previews… watch the replay here: https://t.co/TMXh4cz3Cc

— Steve Merril (@SteveMerril) October 1, 2021

Michigan State vs Western Kentucky Analysis from The GoldSheet

Houston Baptist transfer Bailey Zappe has demonstrated complete control of WKU’s new-look Air Raid offense and will test Sparty’s defense as the best pure passer they’ve seen to date. The Hilltoppers struggle to stop the run and could be overwhelmed on special teams too, so we’re expecting to see points.

College Football Week 5

Steve Merril takes a look at this weekend’s best college football matchups with a plethora of betting market analysis. This week’s featured games include: Arkansas at Georgia; Cincinnati at Notre Dame; Mississippi at Alabama; and Baylor at Oklahoma State.

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