Michigan vs Iowa Picks and Predictions

Michigan vs Iowa Betting Preview

Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Michigan vs Iowa betting preview for the Big Ten Championship on Saturday, December 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. At the time of posting, the Wolverines have risen to an 11-point favorite over the Hawkeyes, with the total sitting at 43.5 points.

Stay on top of the latest College Football updates direct from Las Vegas!

Michigan vs Iowa Predictions

Michigan Wolverines -11 vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Total: 43.5 Points
Iowa is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as an underdog.
Michigan went 10-2 against the spread this season.
Four of Michigan’s five road games went over the total.

The conference championships have definitely been shaken up this year, seeing an ACC game w/o Clemson & Florida State, now you have a B10 championship w/o Ohio State, who has won the L4. On top of that, Iowa and Michigan have 1 COMBINED appearance since the B10 started a championship game in 2011. Iowa came up short against Michigan State in 2015, so we are guaranteed to have a team win the conference that hasn’t won since 2011. In the 10 year history of this game, the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS, while the B10 East is 8-2 SU (winning 8 straight after WIS took the 1st 2 seasons).

If you have had the opportunity to look at my write-ups on the SEC, ACC & AAC, you will notice that the teams in those games are relatively comparable to their opponent in terms of offense, but the defense is the key difference. In this B10 championship game, the roles have been reversed. In terms of defense, Iowa holds the SLIGHT advantage, but the difference is minuscule.

Iowa allows 3.5 YPG less then UM, just 0.26 OYPP less, they allowed 17 less rush YPG, and just about a half yard less in YPC. Michigan holds the edge in points allowed, allowing 0.1 point less per game (yes, 1/10th of a point), and they are slightly better against the pass, allowing 13.7 less passing yards per game, while their yards/pass attempt is deadlocked at 6.1 yards. While most other games had comparable offenses, these offenses couldn’t be more polar opposites.

The Wolverines have played a slightly harder schedule (#13 vs. #19 in SOS for Iowa) but the offensive difference is drastic, UM is putting up 1.8 more yards per play, scoring 11.6 points more then Iowa, rushing for almost 104 more YPG then the Hawkeyes (rushing for almost 2 more yards PER CARRY), on top of putting up 48 more passing yards per game and almost 2 more yards per pass attempt, although the biggest difference, total yardage.

Michigan comes in at #19 in the country posting 456 YPG, Iowa hasn’t had a single game where they put up those numbers, the Hawkeyes only cracked 400 yards twice all season (418 vs. Kent State & 428 vs. Maryland). Iowa is averaging just 299 YPG (#123 in the FBS), which puts them on a list with just 8 other FBS teams that are averaging under 300 yards per game.

All the while, UM seems to look better and better each week, which is not the case for this Iowa team. The Hawkeyes never allowed more then 20 points in the F6 games TY, and in the L6, they only held their opponent UNDER 20 points 1 time in 6 games. They have allowed almost 22 PPG to their opponents in the L6 games and lost 10 TO’s in the L6.

This Michigan team has been able to consistently get it done on both sides of the ball and it shows when you talk about their ATS records. UM is 7-1 in the L8 and 10-2 on the year, including 4 straight W’s in which they covered by 12.88 points on average. Both UM and Iowa played Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska. In those 6 games, UM went 6-0 (SU & ATS) outscoring opponents by 19.5 points, and out-gaining the opponent by an average of over 132 yards, covering those 6 games by an average of over 9 points per game.

Iowa could only outscore the opponents by 10 points on average (but only managed to score just under 27 points per, resulting in a 5-1 SU record & 4-2 record ATS. H2H Michigan leads the series 17-11-1 (11-16-2 ATS) but they are 6-3-1 ATS in the L10 and have won 3 out of the L4 against the spread. They are 16-7-1 SU as a F against Iowa (8-14-2 ATS), and they are 6-3 SU as a DD F against the Hawkeyes.

Yet the most impressive thing to watch out for is the fact that Michigan is coming off their biggest win of the year (and potentially the biggest win in Harbaugh’s tenure) and they are 54-3 SU since 2010 as a double-digit favorite against the B10, including winning the L19 straight! I believe this will make it 20!

🏆 Few of this week’s conference championships have as much potential as the #ACC Championship does. Pittsburgh is favored by a field goal over Wake Forest, with the total soaring at 73. @JMSportsCLE breaks down both sides of Saturday’s contest.
➡️ https://t.co/tm0AdH1muw

— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) December 1, 2021

Michigan vs Iowa Analysis from The GoldSheet

Don’t think for a moment that the Wolverines are satisfied or will suffer a letdown. The only thing standing between them and a slot in the National Championship playoff is Iowa. These two have met 4 times in the past 10 regular seasons and just once in the past 5 years (2019, a 10-3 Wolverine win), with the home team winning all 4, but Michigan covering 3 of those.

This time around, the Wolverines appear to hold many more cards on both sides of the ball, with QB Cade McNamara (2301 YP, 14 TDs, 3 ints.), Haskins (1232 YR, 5.0 ypc, 18 TDs), and WR Cornelius Johnson (37 recs.). Plus, RB Blake Corum (865 YR, 6.4 ypc, 10 TDs) recovered enough from injuries that had limited him to 1 carry in the past 3 games to rush 6 times for 87 yds. against the Buckeyes. The UM defense recorded 32 sacks, led by Hutchinson, and held foes to 54% completions (51% and 3.0 ypc over the past 4 games).

Iowa has been a solid underdog recently, covering 5 of last 6 chances since November of 2019, but lacks the quality and depth of Michigan. Spencer Petras returned against Nebraska after sitting out Minny and Illinois in favor of Alex Padilla, and the two shared time against the Cornhuskers, with Padilla starting and Petras was inserted for the second half. Neither has turned in anything close to the performances of McNamara, and it’s RB Tyler Goodson (156 YR vs. Nebraska) and the Hawkeye defense and special teams that got them to this game. It’s difficult to see that being enough facing a Michigan side that’s turned in 8 double-digit victories this season and generated 37 ppg and 451 ypg on the year, while holding 10 of 12 foes to fewer than 396 yds. and 9 to 18 pts. or fewer. Play Michigan.

Michigan vs Iowa Video Preview

Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines have overcome a lot of hurdles this season. Can they close out the season by adding a trophy to the case in Ann Arbor? WagerTalk college football handicappers Ralph Michaels, Dave Cokin and Teddy Covers offer their Michigan vs Iowa preview.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for all of the college football conference championship games, including this Michigan vs Iowa showdown, from your desktop or phone.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.