Minnesota vs Maryland Big 10 Football Picks

Minnesota vs Maryland Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Minnesota vs Maryland Big Ten betting preview for Saturday, October 23 from Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. At the time of posting, the Gophers are a -4.5 home favorite over the Terrapins with the total sitting at 54.5 points.

Tony Finn is WagerTalk’s all-time profit leader in combined NFL + College Football. To play side-by-side with Tony this weekend, use promo code FINN15 for $15 off of his 5% college football package and FINN39 for a 3-Day All Access pass for price of one day. Stay on top of the latest College Football updates direct from Las Vegas!

Minnesota vs Maryland NCAAF Predictions

Maryland Terrapins (4-2, 1-2 Big 10) at Minnesota Gophers (4-2, 2-1 Big 10)
Total: 54.5 Points
Maryland has failed to cover the spread in each of the Terps’ last five conference games.
Minnesota is 8-4-1 against the spread in the Gophers’ last 13 Big Ten home games.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) and the Maryland Terrapins (4-2, 1-2 Big Ten) have a mid-afternoon date this Saturday at Huntington Bank Stadium. The Big 10 contest could be labeled top secret and still receive a blasé reaction from most outside Minneapolis and College Park.

Minnesota exited September with a 2-2 record. P.J. Fleck’s squad lost the season opener 45-31 to then-4th-ranked Ohio State. The Week 4 loss at Huntington against Bowling Green, a low-scoring 14-10 defeat is still somewhat of a mystery.

The Gophers pair of losing efforts are similar to the program’s wins this season. The head-scratching defeat at the hands of Bowling Green was followed by the performing opposites of the Gophers consecutive victories over Purdue and Nebraska the last two Saturdays.

The Maryland product doesn’t work unless quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has found his happy place on game day. That garden spot is working in the offensive backfield working this his progressions and completing 70 percent of his passes. After a four-game sweep in September Maryland has lost back-to-back games, beginning with a Friday Night Big 10 showcase to then-No #5 Iowa and this past Saturday at the Horseshoe to then-No. #7 Ohio State.

The Terrapins opened the season with what was a good win at the time, West Virginia Mountaineers, a rout of Howard; a league victory over the Fighting Illini, and the last of the September success over a capable Kent State squad. When Maryland is operating in a productive mode on Saturday, Tagovailoa is seeing the field. The Terps quarterback completed 72 percent or better of his pass attempts in the team’s season-opening four-game winning streak. The Hawaii native completed 22-of-27 passes in the 62-0 win over Howard, an 81.5 completion rate.

The two losses to begin October, to Iowa and Ohio State, are not failures in the big picture. They are, however, concerning because of how the Terrapins lost. Maryland was outscored 117-31.

Tagovailoa completed just 55 percent of his pass attempts in the Hawkeye loss, and the 71 percent completion rate he earned in the Ohio State loss is due to the Buckeyes 42-10 halftime lead and that Ryan Day and his staff played the second and third rotation in the defensive secondary the final 30 minutes. Tagovailoa was 12-of-14 with his second-half throws. The two that he didn’t complete were in fact completions, to the Ohio State cover-corners.

The Gophers offense is pedestrian on most Saturdays. The unit has moments that are random and unpredictable. The lack of big game, Big 10 experience of the Tanner Morgan supporting cast, has been and still is an issue.

The Gophers failed to record 300 yards of total offense in the loss to Bowling Green. The hard-fought win over the Boilermakers in West Lafayette found the offense falling short of 300 yards. It didn’t exceed 300 yards despite including the 75-yard winning drive with just over a minute to go in the game. In truth, the win over Purdue was a losing performance that resulted in a win.

The Gophers QB Tanner Morgan doesn’t have the weapons to create a dynamic offense when needed. However, that isn’t the architecture of this Minnesota team. The Gophers are fast enough on the defensive front to create chaos in the opponent’s backfield and the defense is good enough to keep them in games despite their offensive challenges.

Minnesota averages 4.3 yards per carry on the season while Maryland allows only 3.4 per attempt.

The Terps have converted 35 percent of their third-downs, but the Gophers’ good but not great defense has allowed the opposition to convert third downs at a rate of just 31.2 percent.

Minnesota has covered the bookmakers’ number four of six lined games in 2021 The Gophers offer little value as a favorite. Minnesota is 0-2 as a lined favorite but 3-1 when positioned as an underdog.

Maryland’s lone ATS cover against Power-5 competition came in Week 1 versus West Virginia. That cover came as a 2.5-point home dog.

When the passing game is clicking and the offense works, the Terps have the speed on the outside to keep defenses honest. The Maryland defensive bookends have the speed to make Morgan uncomfortable. The Gophers have the more capable and balanced defense, especially when they are competing on their home grass.

Our lean in this Big 10 event would find the Gophers running the football effectively enough to control the game, own time of possession, and keep the Terps offense and Tagovailoa watching from the sidelines more than operating the offense in Saturday’s conference showdown.

An unranked Iowa State team is a 7-point favorite over a top-10 Oklahoma State teams. Join Joe, Dave, Teddy and Ralph for College Football Daily as we break down this intriguing Big XII clash. https://t.co/qbZz9oMeSS

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 21, 2021

Minnesota vs Maryland Analysis from The GoldSheet

We are not going to discount Maryland too much for back-to-back losses to top-10 Iowa and Ohio State. Terp QB Taulia Tagovailoa won’t be facing the Hawkeye defense this week, and if you discount that nightmarish outing, he’s got a 12-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season and has completed 75-percent of his passes. For Minnesota, the attack has been off to a slow start, sitting at No. 105 in total offense and No. 121 in passing yards, but QB Tanner Morgan is coming off his best game of the season after dismantling Nebraska. The Terps might have already won their seasonal ration of road games (at Illinois), and might find the 28th-ranked Gopher defense (6th against the run) a bit sticky as well.

Minnesota vs Maryland Video Preview

After Iowa’s surprising loss to Purdue, PJ Fleck’s Gophers are now very much in control of their own destiny in the wild Big Ten West race. WagerTalk college football handicappers Kelly Stewart, Dave Cokin and Adam Trigger offer their Minnesota vs Maryland predictions.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the College Football Week 8 moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages, including this Minnesota vs Maryland showdown, from your desktop or phone.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.