Mississippi State vs Alabama SEC Week 7 Picks and Odds

Mississippi State vs Alabama Betting Preview

WagerTalk Media and GoldSheet Director of Content James Bunting offers his Mississippi State vs Alabama SEC Football betting preview. At the time of posting, the Crimson Tide are a 17-point road favorite in Starkville with the total sitting at 58 points.

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Mississippi State vs Alabama Predictions

• Alabama Crimson Tide -17 at Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday, October 16.
• Total: 58 Points
• The Crimson Tide hasn’t lost to the Bulldogs since 2007, which was Nick Saban’s first season at Alabama.
• Alabama has covered five of the last six meetings in this series, pitching shutouts in two of last three years.
• Since arriving in Starkville last season, Mike Leach is 1-5 against the spread in SEC home games.

Alabama doesn’t have a lot of experience coming off losses, having suffered only 12 over the past decade. The last time the Crimson Tide dropped consecutive games came in 2013, when they fell against Auburn in the “Kick Six” game before losing in the Sugar Bowl to Oklahoma. Prior to last week’s upset against Texas A&M, the Tide had won 100 consecutive contests against unranked competition.

Bryce Young passed for 369 yards and receiver Jameson Williams finished with ten catches and a pair of second-half touchdown grabs. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. ran for 147 yards, so it’s hard to say the Tide offense was the problem even though they managed just one yard on three plays on their final drive. Alabama’s defense coughed up a late 38-31 lead and also let A&M go 54 yards in eight plays to set up the game-winning field goal. Key defensive back Malachi Moore missed the entire game after getting called for targeting very early in the first quarter.

Alabama has already faced some of the best quarterbacks in the country (Miami’s D’Eriq King, Florida’s Emory Jones/Anthony Richardson, and Ole Miss’ Matt Corral) so last week’s slip-up against Texas A&M and Zach Calzada feels like such an anomaly. Over the last three meetings between these two teams, Mississippi State has scored a total of seven points.

Circa Sports opened this total at 52.5 on Sunday afternoon, and I like their number more than the 58’s that are currently out there. The last three games between these two teams have featured 41, 45 and 24 points. Now, we expect them to approach 60 this year?

Both coaches have a pretty good feel for how they want to attack the other one. I expect there to be some conservative defense on both sides, looking to prevent the big-strike play. Yards will be gained on both sides, but will they translate into points? I’m skeptical. The Bulldogs only average 5.5 yards per play, which is directly at the median among all college football teams. For context, Alabama has already played Florida (No. 3 in yards per play) and Ole Miss (No. 4).

✏️ From injury news to historical trends, we put our NCAAF Week 7 betting notes together in one hub. If you haven’t started breaking down this week’s college football card yet, this is a great place to get started.https://t.co/wUBUsdcY4d

— The GoldSheet (@thegoldsheet) October 12, 2021

Mississippi State vs Alabama Analysis from The GoldSheet

There aren’t too many examples of gauging Alabama after a regular-season loss in recent years, though the Crimson Tide did cover twice in that role in 2019, covering at Mississippi State after a loss to LSU, then winning and covering the bowl game vs. Michigan after dropping the last-minute verdict vs. Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

College Football Daily

Tennessee hosts Ole Miss on Saturday night with the total set at 83 points! Is it high enough? Join Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Steve Merril and Rob Veno for College Football Daily as we preview the marquee College Football Week 7 matchups, including Virginia Tech vs Pitt; Tennessee vs Ole Miss; Indiana vs Michigan State; and Missouri vs Texas A&M.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages from this week’s marquee NCAAF matchups, including Mississippi State vs Alabama, from your desktop or phone.

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