Navy Football Predictions, Betting Tips & Team Preview 2023: WagerTalk Best Betting Guide

Navy Football Predictions & Preview 2023:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Midshipmen’s chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on Navy football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for Navy football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Midshipmen this season.

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Navy football Preview 2023: Navy Picks for Betting

NIL and the transfer portal. 

Not all the service academies have been left behind, but Navy is just 11-23 the past three seasons, and that wasn’t good enough for their longtime coach to keep his job.  Brian Newberry’s defense was outstanding in many ways last year, and he’s the new guy in charge.  Seamless transition, or another losing season?

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Navy Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH

Navy, like Army, is considering opening up their offense to include more pass attempts.  Unlike Army, the run game here has taken a three-year dip.  The good news is that like Army, the returning starter count is higher than ever. 

The big question of course is finding a QB who is accurate.  The OL is light by today’s standards and figures to allow more sacks.  Every once in a while, the run D comes up big. 

That was the case in ’22, with a (corrected for sacks) 3.6 per carry average allowed, and just 95 yards allowed per game.  With nine returning starters, this might be sustainable.  The pass defense percentage is routinely in the mid-60’s, partly due to not practicing vs. quality QB’s.  The figure will probably stay in this range, but the Midshipmen produced a record high 34 sacks last year, which certainly helped the cause.  The top guy (11.5) is gone, so this area will clearly need to be tracked.  Kicking has run hot and cold here.  A new PK must be vetted out.

Navy 2023 Predictions, Navy Schedule:

The schedule does come out easier in 2023. 

It also features an unheard of four bye weeks, which I have NEVER seen! 

Games 4-6 after bye #2 are home to USF (no recent meetings), home to North Texas, at a rested Charlotte, and home to Air Force.  I’ll be pre-checking how they adapt to a revamped offense (new coordinator worries me), defensive sacks, and the kicking game.  The next four games are at Temple (three straight wins), at Tulane, home to Memphis ((four straight losses) and at SMU (three straight losses, some closer games).  Army as usual closes out the season

Navy Football Bottom Line:

6-6 or even 7-5?  With more returning starters than almost ever, coupled with an unprecedented four bye weeks, anything less than 6-6 in this league in flux would be underachieving.  I’m rightfully scared about the ’23 offense, but the defense should be fine.  Hopefully, close game kicking won’t let them down.

Navy Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

Coaching stability has lent itself well to solid statistical indicators, but are we entering unproven ground now? 

Navy enters 2023 49-21 ATS as a rush pick (9-2 lately, even in down years).  Being a rush pick vs. any new coaching staff has been incredibly stable, although I have NOT used such data when new coaches face off against each other.  Navy is 4-11 straight-up at home the last three seasons.  If the new coaching change results in growing pains, that might be an area to continue to exploit..

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