NC State Football Predictions: How To Bet on NC Statw in 2023

NC State Football Predictions, Total Wins Expected, Handicapping Tips:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Wolfpack’s chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on NC State football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for NC State football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Pack this season.

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NC State Football Preview 2023: NC State Picks for Betting

Expectations.  NC St was yet another recent team that was projected higher than their usual weight class, and failed to deliver.  8-5 was a disappointment. 

Expectations have been lowered for 2023, but the Wolfpack expect to be firmly in the higher tier bowl chase.

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NC State Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH, Strengths and Weaknesses

The offense disappointed in 2022.  In comes decent coordinator Robert Anae and his former QB, Brennan Armstrong (Virginia). 

The run game stalled in 2022, with an adjusted figure of 3.75-130 per game.  It’s never been dynamic, but needs to be back in the 4.2-4.4 range for run-pass balance to work. 

My current projection is 4.1 (as usual, corrected for sacks and kneel downs using my formula).  Last year 13 of their top 15 tacklers returned.  The run defense finished exactly on my 3.75 projection, while I was a tad more hopeful with their pass defense percentage, which was still solid at 57.7%.  Defensive personnel could be down a bit, but staff continuity on this side helps, and the Wolfpack shouldn’t regress too much (I project 60%). 

One major concern is kicking.  They bring in a promising transfer (51-64), but lose the Lou Groza winner (Dunn), who was nearly perfect in 2022.  The offense didn’t finish drives in 2022, as evidenced by their 18 attempts inside of 40 yards.  That needs to change.

NC State 2023 Predictions, Wolfpack Schedule: How Hard is the Schedule?

The only major schedule difference is adding Notre Dame (9/9). 

First, they travel to UConn, and can’t look past the improving Huskies.  This will be a good test for both sides of the ball.  Ex-Wake QB Hartman is now with the Irish, so it’s a battle of transfer QB’s. 

Games 5-6 are home to Louisville (NC State revenge) and Marshall.  Both teams featured good to great defenses last year, but now have new defensive coordinators. 

This should complete my analysis of NC State’s 2023 offense.  The floor should be 4-2, but much depends on Armstrong stretching the field (not always his forte) in order to open up the run game, plus how the new players are faring defensively.  As the reader can see, I’m always creating check points for each team during the season. 

Duke has two weeks off before hosting NC State.  This seems like a must win in order for the Wolfpack to claim any hope of reaching the ACC title game.  I like the week off prior to hosting Clemson, regardless of the Duke outcome.  Again, Armstrong’s ability to stretch the field is critical, as Clemson’s defense is going to be too good if they can bunch up the line of scrimmage. 

Which team, NC State or Miami, is in a better frame of mind prior to that 11/4 home game?  Games vs. Wake are most often won by the home team.  Wake has two extra days to prepare as well.  The Wolfpack close at Virginia Tech (lucky one-point win at home in 2022) and home to UNC (NC State potential scheduling edge but the series has been absolutely crazy).

NC State Football Bottom Line: Total Wins Future Pick

Iowa St and Indiana were very recent examples of teams that were ranked in rarefied air (for them) and did not deliver. 

Predicting NC St atewould fall short of expectations was “easy” a year ago, and it could have been worse, with a 4-1 record in close games, two of which were by complete luck. 

With less pressure, NC State can be a tough out for any opponent.  8-4 is achievable if Anae makes a difference, and he very well might, but 6-6 is another possible result if the defense slightly regresses, especially without the NCAA’s best PK.

NC State Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

After going an unsustainable 85% in ACC games in 2020 my performance dipped badly to 46% the past two seasons.  With a ten-year record of 60%, I’m looking to rebound. 

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