NC State vs North Carolina Picks and Predictions Nov 26

NC State vs North Carolina Betting Preview

Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his NC State vs North Carolina ACC football betting preview for Friday, November 26. At the time of posting, the Wolfpack are a 6-point home favorite over the Tar Heels with the total sitting at 62.5 points.

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NC State vs North Carolina Predictions

• NC State Wolfpack -6 vs North Carolina Tar Heels
• Total: 62.5 Points
• North Carolina has covered the spread in each of the last four meetings in this series.
• North Carolina is 0-5 against the spread away from Chapel Hill this season.
• NC State has covered the spread in ten of their last 12 home games.

I don’t think many people would have looked at this inner-state battle at the beginning of the season and anticipated the game that we are getting ready to see on Friday. The Tar Heels came into this season ranked in the AP top-10, they had a potential Heisman favorite under center in Sam Howell and now coming into week 13, UNC needs a win to even stay at .500 for the season! The defense hasn’t stepped up like the team had hoped, on the season they are allowing 412 yards per game (#87), just over 31 points per game (#98) and almost 6 yards per play (#95)! Against their conference opponents the defense has been even worse, allowing almost 34 PPG (#103) on 430 yards per game (#93), allowing 6.1 yards per play (#93)! The team is lucky to be sitting at (+1) in the TO category, seeing as they have forced just 1.3 TO’s per game, and sacking the quarterback just 21 times (19 against ACC foes).

North Carolina’s offense has played relatively well and has been the reason they have been able to put up a fighting chance in some of the games this season, but Sam Howell didn’t quite live up to the Heisman expectations. Howell is 6th in passing yards/game in the AAC (270 yards) but he falls in 5th in the conference in completion percentage (63.5%), yards (2,704), and TD’s (22), he does rank nationally in yards (#28) and completion percentage (#49) but not where he would want to rank.

The one thing Sam Howell could do without question is run the ball, as a QB, he came in nationally ranked at #4 for rushing yards and tied for #7 in rushing TD’s by a quarterback. He was #7 in the entire ACC in rushing yards per game, which resulted in being the 2nd best QB in rushing yards per game in the conference, trailing just Malik Cunningham from Louisville. While Sam Howell was leading the charge this offense put up 453 YPG (#20) on 6.4 yards per play (#22), posting 35 PPG (#20) against their ACC opponents! Although those numbers haven’t just been against the ACC, Howell and this offense put up 483 YPG on 6.85 yards per play which resulted in 37 PPG (#14 in the country) throughout the 11 game season.

North Carolina State didn’t even start the year in the AP top-25 (even though they weren’t far, coming in at #31) but even the state of North Carolina had their eyes set on the other team in their state that had some real potential. Now, in hindsight, that couldn’t be much farther from the truth. North Carolina State has been a top tier team on both sides of the ball, against conference opponents and throughout the entirety of the season.

o far this season NC State is out-gaining their opponents by an average of 99.2 yards per game (#23 in the FBS), they are winning games by 14.3 points per (#18) and they are out-gaining opponents by 1.32 yards PER PLAY (#18)! This goes to show you that they can do it on both sides of the ball. The Wolfpack is putting up 420 yards per game (allowing just 320 – #18 in the country), posting 33 points per game (allowing just 18.7 – #13 in the country) and they are putting up 6.11 yards per play (allowing just 4.79 yards per play – #13 in the country)!! NC State is (+5) in turnover differential this season and they are (+9) in the sack battle, protecting the ball on offense and forcing the turnovers on the defensive side.

While we can sit around and compare stats until we are blue in the face, I personally have found the most success in looking at the common foes between the two teams. North Carolina and NC State have both faced off against Florida State, Miami (FL) and Wake Forest and the H2H statistical comparison is something that definitely backs up this NC State team. In the 3 games mentioned above, UNC put up an impressive stat line, almost 43 PPG on 453 YPG, forcing 5 TO’s (vs. 3 lost) and sacking the QB 5 times (v. 8 sacks allowed), but on the defensive side they allowed 44 PPG on 473 YPG!!

As I mentioned earlier, NC State has really been able to take control on both sides of the ball. The Wolfpack may not have put up quite the same yardage per game or points per game, but they held these 3 opponents, on average, to 14 less points and over 107 less yards then they managed to put up against the Tar Heels. Both teams were similar in terms of record, but North Carolina is going up against one of the better defenses in this conference.

Against the spread this season it is almost no comparison. The Tar Heels struggled just to win games this year, but an ATS W was even harder to come by. North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their L6 overall, and failing to cover even a single game at home! Surprisingly North Carolina has only been a dog twice thus far, but they are 0-2 ATS in those two games. NC State on the other hand is 4-1-1 ATS in the L6 (outscoring opponents by 12.66 points per game in the stretch) and they are 5-1 ATS @ H so far this season!

All-in-all these two teams are relatively familiar with each other, being in the same conference, and state for that matter. Going back to 1980 UNC leads the series ATS w/ a 23-18 record. Recently, the series has shifted even more to the Tar Heels, especially in the given situation. UNC is 9-4 ATS in the L13 games @ NC State, 10-2 in the L12 as a dog, including a 6-1 run in the L7 & a 5-1 ATS run in the L6 as a dog on the road. I am rolling with the Wolfpack on this one!

🎓🏈 Looking for college football betting analysis? Catch the latest college football edition of #PredictivePlaybook as @JesseSchule @DrChuckRx and @JohnRyanSports1 preview SEVEN games on this week’s betting slate.
👉 https://t.co/yHPXKVz70s

— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) November 24, 2021

NC State vs North Carolina Analysis from The GoldSheet

There’s even some question about Howell’s status for this regular season-ender, as he skipped last week’s scrimmage vs. Wofford with an NHL-like upper-body injury, though is expected to return for what might be his last college game in Raleigh. Mack Brown is hoping that not only Howell will be available after little-used soph Jacolby Criswell ran a scaled-back version of the offense last week vs. the SoCon Terriers, but that NC State’s Dave Doeren has a short memory after Mack ran up a score on the Wolfpack each of the past two seasons.

The 8-3 Wolfpack is in line for a more-desirable bowl bid with another win, and hasn’t lost all season at Carter Stadium (6-0 SU; only spread loss laying nearly three touchdowns in a non-league game vs. La Tech). The carrot of the school’s second-ever 10-win season (the Philip Rivers-led Pack of 2002 the only other) is still within reach, and the best NC State defense in a generation (ranks 17th), spearheaded by tackle-machine LB Drake Thomas, has a score to settle with Howell. In fact, Pack QB Devin Leary, with 31 TD passes, has out-Howell’d Howell this season, and if given the chance, we doubt revenge-fueled NC State pulls back on the throttle. Play NC State.

College Football Daily

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WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for every College Football Week 13 game, including this NC State vs North Carolina showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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