Nebraska vs Ohio State Big 10 Football Picks and Predictions

Nebraska vs Ohio State Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Nebraska vs Ohio State Big Ten football betting preview for Saturday, November 6 at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska. At the time of posting, the Buckeyes are a 15-point road favorite at the Cornhuskers with the total sitting at 66 points.

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Nebraska vs Ohio State Predictions

Nebraska Cornhuskers +15 vs Ohio State Buckeyes
Total: 66 Points
The over is 10-4 in Ohio State’s last 14 games.
Ohio State is 8-1-1 against the spread in the Buckeyes’ last ten conference road games.

The No. 5-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes visit the state capital of Nebraska Saturday for a matchup against the Cornhuskers in Lincoln. The Buckeyes defeated Nebraska 52-17 last season at the Horseshoe and own an 8-1 edge in the all-time series. The Huskers faithful will be in full force for the noon ET kickoff at Memorial Stadium, with the home team currently resting as 15-point home underdogs.

Ohio State has won six straight since losing 35-28 to the Oregon Ducks in Week 2 at the Shoe. It is the Buckeyes’ lone loss of the season. The first College Football Playoff rankings positioned OSU in the 5th slot of the first who is who list. The Buckeyes control their destiny regarding “to be or not to be” part of the January Four. If Ohio State wins out, they will overtake Michigan State in the list and most likely be slotted as the No. #2 or #3 seed.

During their six-game winning streak, the Buckeyes have outscored their opponents 305-78 and have averaged 53 points per game in the two road contests. Ohio State 5-3 against the spread this season, while Nebraska checks in at 5-4 ATS. The Buckeyes have played to a 5-3 mark in terms of overs-to-under this season. Nebraska has cashed one more over (5-4) than under in the totals container.

This past Saturday, Ohio State defeated ranked Penn State, earning a 33-24 home win over the Nittany Lions. The Buckeyes were a bit undisciplined, racking up ten penalties against a good Penn State defense. The Buckeye’s Saturday’s 33-24 win over Penn State was more convincing than the nine-point margin of the final score.

What we learned, or should have in the Week 9 matchup between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions, was just how much more dynamic Ohio State is than Penn State. As a result, the final score in last Saturday’s matchup between the two ranked Big Ten programs wasn’t as close as one might have thought reviewing the 33-24 final score.

The Buckeyes outgained the Nittany Lions and held the Penn State rushing attack to just 33 total yards. Ohio State averaged 3.5 more yards per run than Penn State. What the home team Lions did well protected their goal line. The Buckeyes kicked field goals in four of their six trips inside the red zone.

The explosive and highest-scoring offense in all the FBS couldn’t reach the end zone in the first 26 minutes of the game. Penn State was off a ridiculous nine-overtime loss on their home grass to Illinois. The defeat at the hands of the Illini was the Nittany Lions’ second consecutive loss. Penn State lost to then-No. #3 Hawkeyes in Iowa City in a game where quarterback Sean Clifford was injured. Clifford returned a week later to fail to lead his team to victory, dying in a dozen opportunities between the regulation and overtime sessions.

Saturday’s road event against the Cornhuskers sets up to be competitive if you believe what your lying-eyes have read and seen. A review of the Nebraska game logs finds Scott Frost’s team losing by eight, seven to then-No. #3 Oklahoma, three in overtime to then-No. #10 Michigan State, three to then-No. #9 ranked Michigan, seven once again and five points. Those final scores would lead one to believe that Frost, quarterback Adrian Martinez, and the Blackshirts were in every game this season. Unfortunately, that assumption is 10-times more a delusion than reality.

The three victories that Frost’s squad have earned came against Fordham, Buffalo, and most recently league ‘mate Northwestern. If Frost and Martinez have been in a position to win one of the five one-possession losses, they have failed. The previous sentence states what the two Nebraska leaders are accountable for this season. The number increases exponentially across his four seasons at Nebraska.

Martinez threw for 105 yards and garnered 85 yards on the ground against Ohio State last season, a Week 1 victory by the Buckeyes with a final score of 52-17. Nebraska lost 48-7 to the Buckeyes in 2019. Martinez threw for 47 total yards and rushed for 81. Martinez’s four seasons in Lincoln find that he and coach Frost are 15-26.

Martinez, his fourth season as Nebraska’s starting quarterback for a school that is one of the top-5 tradition-rich programs in college football history. 2021 will be the fourth consecutive season with head coach Scott Frost and quarterback Adrian Martinez, closing with a losing record.

It would be easy to dig into all of Martinez’s game logs and twist some numbers that point to unfortunate luck or a dropped ball here and an unlucky bounce there, but I strongly suggest you quit looking. Sometimes what you see is what you get. Unfortunately, what you get with Frost and Martinez is a duo who have never been able to combine their forces and win.

Frost has always leaned too heavily on the skill-set of Martinez. When your quarterback is also your leading rusher, the chances of having success in the win and loss column would be more likely at a military school. When Martinez and Frost are chasing the scoreboard, the offense they now run is light-years away from what Frost game-planed as the head coach of Central Florida.

When Frost arrived in Lincoln four years ago, the plan was to surround Martinez with speed. Instead, Nebraska uses a blend of athleticism and size on the offensive side of the football. Frost and his staff place emphasis on big tight ends and the dual threat of Martinez behind center.

The speed of the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball is a mismatch for the Huskers. If Martinez records his game average of 250 yards through the air and 50 via the ground, the Cornhuskers will need a plus-4 or more turnover margin to be a part of Saturday’s game.

In a college contest where the spread is 17-points or less with a total of 62 points or more, a dynamic yet disciplined offense has a significant advantage. Lincoln, say hello to C.J. Stroud, TreVeyon Henderson, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Chris Olave.

The speed of the Buckeyes skilled players leaves Frost, and his staff with no choice but to gamble with blitz packages and trick plays on the grass of Memorial Stadium Saturday. I’d wager against that game plan being successful against an Ohio State team that believes they now have to add style points to their victories to climb into the CFP January Four.

Alabama grabbed plenty of headlines on Tuesday after debuting at No. 2 in the CFP rankings. Can the Crimson Tide pick up a convincing win over LSU? Join Drew, Ralph and Rob for The Best Damn College Football Show. https://t.co/CNcgQDFQpq

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 3, 2021

Nebraska vs Ohio State Analysis from The GoldSheet

Ohio State has run up the scores against Nebraska over the last six meetings, rolling for 53 points per game while covering the spread in five of those six games. Meanwhile, the Huskers dropped their third-straight game with Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez tossing four interceptions (one a pick-six) being the decisive stat against the Boilermakers, leaving the Huskers 95th in turnover margin. The Cornhusker defense has been a bit susceptible to the pass, allowing 66% completions on the season, and the Buckeye offense is first in yardage and scoring and third in pass efficiency. Now needing wins vs. the Buckeyes, red-hot Wisconsin and Iowa in order to attain bowl-eligibility, Nebraska head coach Scott Frost might need to extend Halloween and borrow a Tom Osbourne mask. That’s just not happening.

Nebraska vs Ohio State Video Preview

Nebraska appears destined for another losing season, but the Huskers have been good as an underdog, covering the spread in five of their last six games when getting points. WagerTalk college football handicappers Drew Martin, Kevin Dolan and Bryan Leonard offer their Nebraska vs Ohio State predictions.

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