New Mexico Football Predictions & Betting Tips (Hint: They Can’t Win at Home)

New Mexico Football Predictions 2023: Betting Tips

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Lobos chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on New Mexico football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for New Mexico football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Lobos this season.

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New Mexico Football Preview 2023: New Mexico Picks for Betting

What’s one step below rock bottom? 

Danny Gonzales is 3-19 lately, with wins last year hosting Maine and UTEP.  The conference has several bottom feeders.  New Mexico fits right in, and there may be no relief in sight.

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New Mexico Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH

This is the last call for an offense that averaged 9 points per game in 2021 and 10 points per game last year (conference play). 

The new coordinator is Bryant Vincent who wasn’t retained at UAB but oversaw a solid offense.  He brings QB Hopkins with him, and that could be a massive upgrade.  The rest of the offense looks mediocre at best, and the OL, which allowed 43 sacks despite featuring a run-first offense is fairly young. 

Defense has been the bread and butter here for a long time.  Rocky Long’s unit did slip a year ago, but allowing 4.35 and 61% hardly count as bottom tier numbers. 

As the offense strives to be better, the 2023 defense is in severe trouble.  The top nine tacklers are gone, 21 of the 25 sacks achieved are from departed players, and Rocky Long himself left for Syracuse.  The front seven was not replenished.  A pair of TCU transfers might start in the secondary, but they were extremely lightly used.  I think we’ll see decade-low numbers on this side of the ball (in a bad way). 

Like a few other conference teams, kicking is solid.  I hate to pile on, but here’s more bad news.  Only one senior is slated to start.  Losses are one thing, but New Mexico is also losing by more than expected, going 3-18-1 vs. the spread in their last 22 lined games.  Finally, there’s little home crowd support.  14K is a typical home attendance figure, and the stadium holds nearly 40K.

New Mexico 2023 Predictions, New Mexico Schedule:

Here’s the games where New Mexico has at least some shot at winning. 

9/9 hosting 4-7 Tennessee Tech.  9/16 hosting rival N Mex St.  9/23 at pathetic UMass.  Maybe (?) 10/14 when rested, taking on San Jose St, who stays on the road after facing Boise.  10/21 hosting Hawaii.  10/28 at Nevada.  The finale, 11/25 hosting Utah St, although that series has been completely one-sided in favor of the Aggies

New Mexico Football Bottom Line:

3-9, only because there are some really dismal teams on this schedule.  The upside is potentially improved QB play, but I’ll monitor points scored carefully. 

The downside is a potential free fall with all defensive numbers, which will also be carefully checked out.  3-9 likely means a new Head Coach in 2024, and given the apathy with the program, that makes plenty of sense.

New Mexico Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

New Mexico was 3-14 as a home favorite between 2015-2019. 

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