New Orleans Bowl Picks and Predictions

New Orleans Bowl Betting Preview

Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Louisiana vs Marshall New Orleans Bowl betting preview. At the time of posting, the Ragin Cajuns are holding steady as a 4-point favorite in their home state, with the total sitting at 55.5 points.

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New Orleans Bowl	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -4 vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Total:	55.5 Points
Game Time:	9:15pm ET / 6:15pm PT on Saturday, December 18
Stadium:	Caesars Superdome in New Orleans
TV:	ESPN

New Orleans Bowl Analysis

Coming into this bowl match-up you have two teams that to the eye look very similar. Both have a SOS over 115, and while Louisiana-Lafayette has only lost 1 game SU (in week 1 against Texas), they ended the season just 6-7 against the spread. Marshall on the other hand ended right at the .500 mark ATS, ending the season 6-6, while losing 2 out of their L3.

Louisiana-Lafayette has won 12 straight games SU, and while they have played a relatively easy schedule (although so has Marshall), they managed to stay (+13) in the TO battle this season, including ending at (+9) in the 4 games against teams over .500, and (+6) in their 6 games away from home. In comparison, ULL played slightly below their average for the year in most categories, on the road or at a neutral site, but they have stepped up to the plate against the top opponents.

In comparison to their averages for the year, ULL has out-gained opponents over .500 by almost 59 MORE yards then their were on the year, averaging just 275 yards allowed per game (avg. TY was 345). The Ragin’ Cajuns also outscored their opponents by almost 5 more points then they averaged, on top of holding opponents to 0.84 less YPP (#3 vs. teams > .500 w/ just 4.27 YPP allowed).

Marshall didn’t quite step up to the same level against the teams over .500, but they absolutely thrived away from their home field. Marshall ended the season 5-1 ATS on neutral sites or in away games, ranking in the top 10 in multiple statistical categories. In their 6 games away from home they ranked #7 in YPG (477), #7 in PPG differential (+16.5) while averaging 38.8 PPG (#5), #6 in YPP differential (+1.76 yards), stemming from the #5 ranking in YPP w/ 6.93 yards!

When you combine these teams H2H Marshall seems to take the offensive edge, averaging just over 3 points more per game, putting up 65 more YPG, and coming in at #12 in passing yards per game w/ 311. Their defense hasn’t been bad by any means, they are still better then ULL in YPP allowed, although it is by less then 1/10th of a yard. Marshall also holds the edge in passing yards allowed per game, coming in at #25 allowing under 200 yards per game, and coming in #11 in the nation in yards/pass attempt, allowing just 6.2 yards per attempt.

Yet, Louisiana-Lafayette hasn’t gotten 12 straight SU W’s without having some talent themselves. ULL is #9 in PPG allowed, holding opponents to 18.3 PPG TY (4.5 points less then Marshall has allowed), they are also #35 in the country in YPG allowed (allowing just over 43 less YPG then Marshall).

The one definitive edge that Louisiana-Lafayette holds is in the rushing game, they are #33 in the FBS putting up 192 rushing YPG, and averaging 4.86 YPC on the year. The defense has also picked up a think or two against the rushing, practicing against this unit all year, the D is allowing 146 rushing YPG (almost 45 less yards then

Marshall allows on a game-to-game basis), and holding teams to just 3.87 YPC, while Marshall is allowing 4.27 YPC.
Marshall may have the slight offensive advantage, but in the L4 games, Marshall has allowed almost 29 PPG, while ULL hasn’t given up 28 points in any game since the week 1 loss to Texas.

I am riding with ULL, and even though Louisiana-Lafayette is 3-10 OU on the season, I almost find myself leaning towards the over. Two teams that can definitely put up points, backed by a Marshall team that is 5-1 OU away from home, and has only seen a handful of games this season with a total this low.

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— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) December 17, 2021

New Orleans Bowl Preview from The GoldSheet

Michael Desormeaux will call plays in this bowl game and has the benefit of working with experienced senior Levi Lewis one last time. That experience should serve the Cajuns well since there’s been a lot of turnover within the staff since Napier took a number of coaches with him to Gainesville and there’s a lot of turnover on both sides of the ball in terms of leadership.

Marshall will be playing in its first New Orleans Bowl and debuting in the postseason for the first time under Charles Huff, who led the team to a 7-5 season, the team’s worst performance since 2016. Marshall got blown out 53-21 at home in a winner-take-all game that would’ve landed it in the Conference USA Championship game, squandering an early lead. The Herd really hasn’t fared well in the face of adversity, losing three games by six or fewer points, which is the window oddsmakers expect this game will fall into

This is Lewis’ last hurrah, they should have a homefield advantage with fans driving over from Lafayette and those returning will want to start carving out their place for next season since this is the official start to the Desormeaux era. Marshall is talented, but nothing it has done on the field this season suggests it should be given the benefit of the doubt in a statement game.

New Orleans Bowl Video Breakdown

The Ragin Cajuns sent Billy Napier out a winner in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Can they start the Michael Desormeaux era with a win? WagerTalk college football handicappers Drew Martin, Ralph Michaels and Adam Trigger offer their New Orleans Bowl betting preview.

New Orleans Bowl Stats

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the New Orleans Bowl before diving into this FREE download.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this New Orleans Bowl showdown between Louisiana and Marshall, from your desktop or phone.

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