Orange Bowl Picks, Predictions and Odds

Orange Bowl Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Michigan vs Georgia Orange Bowl betting preview for Friday, December 31. At the time of posting, the Bulldogs from the SEC are holding steady as a 7.5-point favorite over the Wolverines from the Big Ten, with the total sitting at 46 points.

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Orange Bowl	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	Georgia Bulldogs -7.5 vs Michigan Wolverines
Total:	46 Points
Game Time:	7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT on Friday, December 31
Stadium:	Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida
TV:	ESPN

Orange Bowl Analysis

To state that of all the big games that Michigan head football coach Jim Harbaugh has coached in his time at Ann Arbor this one is the x-factor in what and where the former Wolverines quarterback will do and who he will do it with.

Harbaugh did defeat Big 10 rival Ohio State for the first time as the Wolverines head coach this year and the program is in the college football championship for the first time in the eight-years of the new format. However, a victory today earning the team a sideline in the College Football Playoff Championship would likely allow the coach to write his own ticket.

The Michigan Wolverines (12-1, Big 10) and the Georgia Bulldogs (12-1, SEC) compete in the Capital One Orange Bowl this New Year’s Eve night for a spot in the winners’ bracket against the victor of the Alabama Crimson Tide and Cincinnati Bearcats semifinal contest.

The Bulldogs muscled their way through the programs regular season schedule. The lone hiccup in the regular slate was the SEC title tilt against Alabama. There was the impressive Bulldogs’ season-opening win over Clemson and the perfection of the always difficult slate of SEC matchups. The SEC championship game versus the Alabama Crimson Tide was a big game event all on its own.

Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) failed to conquer the Alabama defense in the conference championship and the Bryce Young offense made a dominating Georgia defense look mortal. The Bulldogs were the consensus No. 1 ranked FBS team for most of the 2021 campaign. The ‘Dogs defeated Clemson by a 10-3 final in Week 1 and followed that big victory up with a woodshed event against the Razorbacks with a 37-0 win over Arkansas.

In the business of SEC football, you are only as good as your last game and the conference championship loss to Alabama dropped Kirby Smart’s troupe to No. 3 in the AP College Football Poll. In arguable one of the more dominating season performances by a college program in the last 25 years the Bulldogs went head-to-head with every team on their schedule and won each be 10-points or more save the one possession victory over Dabo’s Clemson Tigers in the first week of the season.

Westgate of Las Vegas opened the Georgia Bulldogs as 7.5-point orange Bowl favorites with the over-under for total points scored in the game at 43.5. When this betting preview went to press the back and forth 7.5 and 8-point handicap had returned to the opening 7.5-point spread. The total in the holiday bowl event has climbed to 45.5 points.

The tradition-rich Michigan football program is alive and well. When a fan of American Football thinks of historically successful teams Ann Arbor, the Big House and the Michigan Wolverines come to mind. The Big Blue haven’t won a national championship since sharing the crown with Nebraska in 1997. Georgia won their way to a national championship in the 1980 college campaign.

The Wolverines make their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance while the Bulldogs are participating in their second, the school’s first since the 1917-18 season when the January Four was the Bulldogs, Alabama Crimson Tide, Clemson Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners.

The consistency and strength in the trenches were the measurable difference between last year’s Wolverines and that of this year Big 10 Championship squad. The Wolverines averaged 6.5 yards per play this year and despite being a run-heavy offense averaged 37.7 points a game. Michigan calls a running play nearly 60 percent of the time on gameday.

Quarterback Cade McNamara has benefited from the success of the rushing attack and as such has completed nearly 65 percent of his pass attempts. Michigan’s No. 1 signal-caller has thrown for 2,470 yards and 15 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Led by running backs Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum, Michigan had the No. 10-ranked FBS rushing offense in college football this season.

Michigan defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald replaced Don Brown this past off-season and has made all the right calls resulting in an elite Michigan defense. Macdonald worked and studied with a Harbaugh on the NFL level as a part of the Baltimore Ravens staff. The first-year play-caller has the Wolverines defense on the attack. The aggressive scheme is difficult to conquer with the mix of zone and man that Macdonald calls.

There were questions throughout the season in respect to former starting quarterback JT Daniels and his backup Stetson Bennett as to which of the pair were best suited to be the conductor of the Bulldogs’ offense. Daniels was sidelined due to injuries and while Daniels returned to his starting role Bennett won the starting nod with his play and the rest of the story is history.

Bennett has been solid when needed but the Georgia offense features a strong running game. The Bulldogs ran for over 200-yards in five games this season. All things being equal it will be the ‘Dogs rush attack that rule the night in Miami.

The Georgia defensive front is anchored by future first-round NFL draft pick Jordan Davis. The Bulldogs defense surrenders a mere 2.6 yards per carry. The best defense in the college orbit disappointed in the Southeastern Conference championship loss to Alabama. They gave up 41 points, 24 more than they allowed to any other team this season.

Orange Bowl Prediction

The Georgia rushing attack dominates from the outset. Michigan’s strong-armed Bennett doesn’t lack for options on the outside when the Wolverines are forced to go to the air while playing from behind but there is a difference between being capable and having skilled wide outs in a Big 10 event and facing this Georgia defense in a championship setting.

The Bulldogs allowed only two teams this season, Tennessee and Alabama, to have any extended success throwing the ball. The pair of SEC foes were the two that threw for over 300 yards and both are head and shoulders more equipped to attack this Georgia defense than Harbaugh’s boys.

The WagerTalk pick to click in the 2021 Orange Bowl is a play on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points.

Interested in placing a bet on tonight’s Orange Bowl? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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Orange Bowl Preview from GoldSheet

Many Bulldog backers are suggesting, with some justification, perhaps, that the loss to the Tide was not simply Bama being Georgia’s kryptonite (after all, Kirby Smart has never beaten his former mentor Nick Saban in four tries), but more a case of the Bulldogs already knowing they would be in the Final Four before kickoff in Atlanta, and simply lacking the desperation of the Tide, which believed it needed the win to keep title hopes alive. Playing for its playoff life, the Tide was able to reverse an early 10-0 deficit (the fourth straight time Smart has blown a lead vs. Saban, by the way) and eventually pull clear.

Indeed, we suspect the key matchup Harbaugh needs to work is establishing his infantry, which punished Big Ten and suspect non-conference opposition all season (including Ohio State, which was admittedly susceptible to the run) behind north-south slashers Hassan Haskins (1288 YR) and Blake Corum (939 YR; dealt with a high ankle sprain late in season, but okay to go in Miami), and an astounding 32 TDs between them. To that we say good luck against wrecking ball DT Jordan Davis and the punishing Bulldog defensive front that allowed only 2.6 ypc and 3 rush TDs all season, putting extra pressure on QB Cade McNamara, who has had the benefit of a run diversion, as the Wolverines even posted modest success with their infantry vs. two of the tougher rush defenses (Wisconsin & Michigan State) they faced.

Orange Bowl Stat Sheet

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on Friday’s Orange Bowl before diving into this FREE download.

Orange Bowl Video Preview

The Wolverines have climbed a bunch of hurdles this season, beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten Championship. Can Michigan take one more step by advancing to the College Football National Championship game? WagerTalk college football handicappers Dave Cokin, Tony Mejia and Bryan Leonard offer their Orange Bowl betting preview on College Football Daily.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this Orange Bowl showdown between Michigan and Georgia, from your desktop or phone.

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