Peach Bowl Picks, Predictions and Odds

Peach Bowl Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Pitt vs Michigan State Peach Bowl betting preview for Thursday, December 30. At the time of posting, the Spartans from the Big Ten have climbed to a 3.5-point favorite over the Panthers from the ACC, with the total sitting at 55.5 points.

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Peach Bowl	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	Michigan State Spartans -3.5 vs Pitt Panthers
Total:	55.5 Points
Game Time:	7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT on Thursday, December 30
Stadium:	Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta
TV:	ESPN

Peach Bowl Analysis

The Pittsburgh Panthers and Michigan State Spartans butt helmets in the 2021 Peach Bowl. What originally set-up as a marquee event with NFL-ready Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett squaring off against Sparty’s Heisman candidate running back Kenneth Walker has lost some of its luster. A factor in the large handle and multiple line changes in this contest is due to the teams’ star players opting out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft.

Circa Race and Sportsbook of Las Vegas opened the Peach Bowl with Pittsburgh a 4-point favorite with a total of 63.5 points. The financial handle of this Peach Bowl matchup has seen Circa make line changes 29 times since opening the game to the wagering public on December 6th. When this game preview went to press the spread has seen a seven-point swing changing the betting favorite from Pittsburgh to Michigan State. The Spartans are positioned as 3.5 point favorites with the total falling from the opening 63.5 to 55.5.

The programs, the bowl label and the venue are all the same despite the event missing the above pair of barnstormers. The Peach Bowl was the landing spot of 2019-20 College Football National Champions LSU and Heisman winning quarterback Joe Burrows. The SEC Tigers took the Big 12 Oklahoma Sooners to the woodshed on that New Year’s Eve event in a 63-28 rout.

Pittsburgh (11-2, ACC) bench boss Pat Narduzzi has hung his coaching helmet on the locker rooms defensive hat rack. The Panthers have been defense-heavy for most of his tenure as the Panthers’ head coach. The transformation from good to great by Pitt’s field general made the Panthers an ACC title and College Football Playoff contender this season. Pickett threw for 4,319 yards and 42 touchdowns while leading the Panthers to the Atlantic Coast Conference championship.

Michigan State (10-2, Big 10) without bell-cow Kenneth Walker III, recipient of the Doak Walker and Walter Camp Player of the Year awards, becomes much more defensible. With Walker in the Spartans backfield the gameplan for opposing defensive coordinators became much more complex. Spartans’ quarterback Payton Thorne, whose 24 touchdown passes are one shy of the school’s single-season record of NFLer Kirk Cousins, benefited greatly from the threat of Walker and the MSU rushing attack.

Pittsburgh Panthers

The Panthers secured their first ACC championship behind the arm of Pickett and the defensive scheme of coach Narduzzi. Pittsburgh has had just one team in the program’s football history to register a 12-win season. The Panthers finished 12-0 in 1976 and won the national championship.
Pittsburgh’s losses this season came against conference rival Miami Hurricanes and the MAC Western Michigan Broncos. The Panthers earned their first league title with an impressive 45-21 rout of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the ACC Championship Game.
Nick Patti will get the start at quarterback in place on Pickett. Patti will be making only his second career start and was limited to throwing just 14 passes this season for 140 yards. Patti’s only college start came in 2019 when he threw for 271 yards and two TD passes in a 17-14 win over Delaware
“Nick is a guy that this entire room trusts,” Narduzzi said. “He’s a good football player. He can throw the ball. … We’re excited to see what Nick (can do). It’s his time in this game to show everybody who he is.”

Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State’s successful turnaround under second-year coach Mel Tucker from a 2-5 pandemic-2020 campaign to a 10-2 record and a holiday bowl invitation earned Tucker a MSU record setting payday.
Walker finished the regular season with 1,636 rushing yards (136.3 yards per game) positioning him to be the top running back selection in the upcoming NFL draft.
Filling the large shoes of Walker will reported to be the combination of tailbacks Jordon Simmons and Elijah Collins.
Quarterback Payton Thorne will need to find All-Conference wide receiver Jayden Reed in the endzone once or twice today to assist the Spartans in earing the Peach Bowl hardware. Reed registered 53 catches, averaging 17.9 yards per catch, resulting in eight touchdowns.
Tucker was rewarded with a 10-year, $95-million extension after his second season at Michigan State. After a 2-5 mark in the pandemic-wracked 2020 campaign, the Spartans won their first eight games of 2021, capped by a triumph over archrival and eventual Big Ten-champion Michigan.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Prediction

The departures of Pickett and Walker to the NFL left college football pundits claiming this year’s Peach contest being a nothing burger. We at WagerTalk would respectfully disagree. As good as the Panthers were to their fanbase and their backers at the sportsbook counter its is difficult to push submit on the sportsbook app with confidence. Supporting a Narduzzi recruited quarterback with one career start against the tradition-rich football program with a physicality edge in the trenches.

Yes, Patti has but one career start but the skillset of his ensemble, including Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison (93 receptions, 1,479 yards and 17 TD) should not be ignored.

All indications point to the Spartans using this game to evolve some of the younger talent under the direction of coach Tucker and his (cough-cough) 10 million dollar guaranteed contract.

“He always gave us everything he had,” coach Mel Tucker said. “He’s a tremendous player and a difference maker and that’s reflected in the awards he did receive. … If it’s not in their best interests to play, I’m going to support them.”

Losses to Purdue (40-29) and Ohio State (56-7) prevented them from reaching the Big Ten Championship Game but they ended the season with a 30-27 victory over Penn State.

“People are taking note of what we’re doing here at East Lansing,” Tucker said. “The tide is turning and we’re moving in the right direction.”

Tucker might also get some freshmen and sophomores ready for next season.

“There’s going to be opportunities to give more reps to some younger players,” he said. “Some guys who maybe haven’t played as much, they’ll show up in the game.”

Note: the Spartans rank last in the nation in pass defense, allowing 337.7 yards per game.

The WagerTalk pick to click on the Peach grass tonight is a play on Narduzzi and the Panthers plus the points.

Interested in placing a bet on tonight’s Peach Bowl? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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Peach Bowl Preview from GoldSheet

Peach Bowl Stat Sheet

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on Thursday’s Peach Bowl before diving into this FREE download.

Peach Bowl Video Preview

WagerTalk college football handicappers Dave Cokin, Tony Mejia and Bryan Leonard offer their Peach Bowl betting preview on College Football Daily.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this Peach Bowl showdown between Pitt and Michigan State, from your desktop or phone.

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