Penn State vs Boise State Predictions | College Football Playoff Preview For 12/31/24

College Football Playoff Betting Preview

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals kickoff with Penn State vs Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl! How will Penn State fare as double-digit favorites after routing SMU 38-10 in the first round? Read below to Get a College Football Playoff betting preview!

GoldSheet – The country’s longest-running sports betting newsletter – shares its thoughts on the matchup between the Nittany Lions and Broncos.

College Football Playoff Details: Penn State vs Boise State

Date:	December 31, 2024
Time:	7:30 PM ET / 4:30 PM PT
Location:	State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
TV:	ESPN
Spread & Total:	Penn State -11.5 | O/U 53.5

College Football Playoff odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of 10:00am ET on Monday, December 30

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Penn State vs Boise State Betting Trends

Boise State went 7-5-1 against the spread this season, and the Broncos were favored in 12 of their 13 games.

In their lone game as an underdog, the Broncos nearly beat No. 1 Oregon as an 18-point underdog. Boise lost to UCLA 35-22 in last year’s LA Bowl, which was the first under then-interim head coach Spencer Danielson.

Penn State has gone 7-7 against the spread thus far, including 4-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite. The Nittany Lions have alternated between wins-and-losses in bowl games over each of the last seven years, beating Utah in the 2022 Rose Bowl before falling to Ole Miss in last year’s Peach Bowl.

Penn State vs Boise State Analysis

When most college football fans think about Boise State, you almost-automatically think about postseason success in the Fiesta Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl and other high-profile games.

Since 2018, Boise State has had THREE bowl games cancelled. The Broncos have only won one bowl game in the last six seasons, largely through no fault of their own.

Penn State’s James Franklin takes a lot of heat for “not winning the big one,” but you have to give the coaching edge to the Nittany Lions in this one.

Boise State’s Spencer Danielson has done a fantastic job with the program, but you’re talking about someone who is 36-years-old and has only ever been a part of one college football program. When is the best time to travel? How should you structure practice?

This is stuff that Franklin has done in his sleep over the last decade at Vanderbilt and Penn State. Danielson has kinda-sorta been forced to figure out a lot of that stuff on the fly.

After opening the season with five-straight “overs,” the under went 6-2 in Boise State’s last eight games. That is the direction we’re looking at in this one. The Broncos have played two teams with a pulse on defense this season: Oregon and UNLV.

Granted, Boise State did very well against the Ducks, but that game was played on September 7 when half the country still didn’t know who Ashton Jeanty was.

In non-conference play, Boise State played Georgia Southern, Washington State and Oregon State. Those teams are No. 88, 109 and 117 in EPA per play allowed.

Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV were the only three Mountain West teams to finish in the top-85 in EPA allowed per play.

Boise State did not play Fresno State during the season, and the Broncos were largely held in-check in both games against UNLV.

Penn State vs Boise State Prediction

Penn State’s defense is No. 10 in EPA allowed per play. The Broncos are going to be tasked with facing size and speed that they haven’t seen since the second week of the year.

Broncos’ QB Maddux Madsen has only eclipsed 200 passing yards one time in the last five games. In those two games against UNLV, Madsen completed 60-percent of his passes for 367 total passing yards (183.5 per game).

It’s going to take a bigger game than that to get past the Nittany Lions and send this game over the total. We’re not convinced the Broncos have the horses to do it, aside from Jeanty.

Penn State vs Boise State Prediction: Under 53.5

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