Pitt vs Miami ACC Football Predictions Oct 30

Pitt vs Miami Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Pitt vs Miami ACC Football betting preview for Saturday, October 30 from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. At the time of posting, the Panthers are a -9.5 home favorite over the Hurricanes with the total sitting at 61.5 points.

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Pitt vs Miami Predictions

Pitt Panthers -9.5 vs Miami Hurricanes
Total: 61.5 Points
Teams that come off a win over Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers are 9-15 against the spread as a favorite in the following game.
Miami has covered the spread in each of the Hurricanes’ last three road games.

The Hurricanes have been beaten up, tossed around, suffered a ridiculous number of injuries each week of the 2021 college campaign, and they continue to spit and kick for head coach Manny Diaz. It is easy to root against Miami, at least for footballers of my generation. There was a time not so long ago that Miami ruled college football with a Jimmy Johnson fist. Diaz and his traveling squad are in Pittsburgh on Saturday for a scheduled contest versus the Pittsburgh Panthers.

Before Jimmy Johnson was letting his Miami players do whatever the hell they wanted to in the mid-1980s, the head coach was Howard Schnellenberger, who ruled South Beach for the same period, length of time, that Johnson did, 5-years, from 1979-1983. Johnson and his staff were recruiting masters, and between 1984 and 1988, The ‘Canes won a national championship. Johnson and Miami of Florida were national champions in 1987. Miami won the college crown again in 1989 under the coaching cap of Dennis Erickson in 1989, his first year as the Hurricane’s head coach. The team that Erickson won the title with has been argued to be Jimmy Johnson’s kids.

The U of M program has won five AP national championships (1983, 1987, 1989, 1991, 2001). The Pitt Panthers claimed nine national championship titles, with the last coming in 1976. The title that Pitt claimed before the ’76 team coached by Johnny Majors and Jackie Sherrill was in 1937 in the Jock Sutherland era.

If you ask the math department at ESPN where this 2021 Pitt team ranks in their power rankings, they will tell you that the Kenny Pickett-led Panthers are the sixth-best team in the country. The ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) issues Pitt a ranking of eighth in offensive efficiency, fifth in defensive efficiency, and 105th in special teams efficiency, for a rank of fifth overall.

Pitt is offense-heavy in the ESPN power index. Pitt receives the best marks with their passing offense. The Panthers have an 8.6 yards per dropback average in passing situations, which carries the sixth-best number in the FBS. Quarterback Kenny Pickett ranks third in the nation in QBR and is a part of the Heisman Trophy conversation.

The Panthers own a plus-16.6 point differential per game, which is the No. 1 differential in all the FBS. The differential is not an adjusted number. The most important handicapping factor in the college football folder is the strength of record. Pitt resides in the 17th slot on the strength of schedule/record with a 2021 season mark of 6-1 overall.

Pitt’s biggest test of the season comes this Saturday against a 3-4 Miami squad. The test will be how the defense holds up against a Hurricanes “O” under the direction of a rookie signal-caller, Tyler Van Dyke. The freshman quarterback got his wings last week in the win over a ranked and quality North Carolina State Wolf Pack squad.

Miami earned the straight up and against the number win Saturday as home dogs. Van Dyke was 25-for-33 with 325 yards through the air and four touchdowns in a 32-31 win over No. #18 Wolf Pack. As good as Van Dyke and the offense were a week ago, the unit’s dependability grade is a “C” at best. The dependability grade applies to the Cane defense, as well.

Youth is a dominating factor on the Miami depth chart. There are many second-year freshmen, a total of 12, on the first teams of the Hurricane’s depth chart.

The best chance that this Miami group has of going into the Ketchup bottle and defeating the Panthers is taking Pickett off his spot with pressure in his face. The Miami front seven could bring pressure from the inside and the edges with their front seven.

As much as college football wants Miami to regain some of their 20-century swaggers, the team’s chances… of going into Pittsburgh, taking Heinz Field and the stadiums swirling winds by storm and ultimately walking out of the visitors’ locker room on late Saturday afternoon, a winner… are long.

The Pittsburgh defensive line is solid as a rock. The pressure that they bring on game day will bother the young Miami freshman. As dynamic as the Panthers offense is this Pitt “O” can dink and dunk and keep opposing offenses off the field by winning time of possession. The Miami offense ranks last in the conference in time of possession with a 26:17 per game period.

The Circa Sportsbook here in Las Vegas opened the Panthers as 10-point home chalk on Sunday morning. In the first hour of taking positions on the game, Pittsburgh had climbed to 12-point favorites to win on Saturday at Heinz Field. Sunday night and throughout Monday there was a constant trickle of buyback on Miami of Florida. At the time this game preview went to press, the Panthers were 9.5-point favorites for Saturday’s high-noon ACC showdown in Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh checks in with a 6-1 ATS mark and are covering the closing spread by a ridiculous +12 point per game posture. This is the last team on the Pitt schedule that can hurt their FPI strength of record rating. The Panthers will be favorites in the five games remaining on their slate after taking down the Hurricanes, straight up, and against the number.

On Thursday’s edition of WagerTalk Today, Dave Cokin and Ralph Michaels join Steve and Teddy for a comprehensive look at this weekend’s NFL and college football betting slates. https://t.co/TJ0BgqKKTE

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 28, 2021

Pitt vs Miami Analysis from The GoldSheet

The Panthers are now two lengths clear in the ACC Coastal as Halloween approaches, but neither Pickett nor Pitt are a regional secret anymore and the new darlings of the sports book crowd are getting a premium attached by the oddsmakers. We suggest they’ve gone a bit overboard this week against a Miami side that seems to be circling the wagons for under-fire Manny Diaz, who are unfortunate to not be on a three-game win streak at the moment behind scrappy frosh QB Tyler Van Dyke. With the marketplace now jumping on board the Panther bandwagon and forgetting about Miami, they’re also overlooking recent trends that also include three-straight ‘Canes wins in this series.

Pitt vs Miami Video Preview

Both the Panthers and the Hurricanes have been known to fall flat after a big win in recent seasons. Both teams are coming off impressive wins last week. Who can we trust on Saturday? WagerTalk college football handicappers Drew Martin, Bryan Leonard and Kevin Dolan offer their Pitt vs Miami predictions.

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