Pitt vs Wake Forest Picks and Odds | ACC Championship Game

Pitt vs Wake Forest Betting Preview

Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Pitt vs Wake Forest betting preview for the ACC Championship on Saturday, December 4 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. At the time of posting, the Panthers are holding steady as a 3-point favorite over Wake Forest, with the total sitting at 73 points.

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Pitt vs Wake Forest Predictions

• Pitt Panthers -3 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
• Total: 73 Points
• The over is 15-5 in Pitt’s last 20 games.
• Pitt went 5-0 straight-up and against the spread away from Heinz Field this season.

This is only the second time these two teams have matched up, the first was back in 2018 when Pitt came away with a 34-13 win and covered the spread as a 7 points favorite. Now these two teams are facing off in the ACC championship, a championship game that won’t see Clemson OR Florida State for the first time since Virginia Tech squared off against Boston College, all the way back in 2008.

This year will also be the first time since 2010 that neither Clemson or Florida State go on to win the conference. At the beginning of the season people may have thought that Clemson might not even make a bowl with the start that they had, that has since changed, but they won’t be playing in this conference championship. Instead you have two of the most explosive offenses in the country.

If you take a look at my article on the SEC championship, you will start to notice some similarities, even though the teams aren’t quite as “high profile”. When you look at the rankings and the stats without a team, at least offensively, it may be hard to tell if you are watching the ACC or SEC game. Wake Forest is #3 in the FBS in points per game, putting up just under 43 points per game (42.9), stemming from an offense that is posting 484 yards per game on 6.29 yards per play.

Pittsburgh isn’t far behind, they are #4 in PPG, trailing Wake Forest by 0.1 PPG, putting up 42.8 points on average, which again results from an offense that is posting even more yards, the Panthers are #4 in YPG in the FBS w/ 513 yards per game on 6.53 yards per play. Which means defense is going to be the deciding factor, and that it is without a doubt.

Wake Forest is allowing almost 6 points more per game then Pitt, they are also allowing almost 75 more yards per game. While both the offenses can put up massive points and massive yardage, Pitt’s defense has been able to neutralize the opposition noticeably better then Wake Forest.

The perfect example is looking at the 5 common foes, both teams took on Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina and Clemson. In those 5 games, Wake Forest put up 40.8 PPG on 519 yards on average, but they allowed 33.4 points to the opponents on 485 yards! This resulted in a 3-2 SU record, but the Demon Deacons could only cover 2 of those 5 games. Pittsburgh on the other hand posted 38 PPG, slightly under WF, but they allowed just 24 points to the opponents. The Panthers also out-gained their opponents by 109 yards on average, putting up 476.8 yards, against the 367.8 yards that they allowed.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that against the spread, Pitt holds the advantage. While both teams ended the season with a 10-2 record, the Panthers ended with a 9-3 record ATS, including a 6-2 record against the ACC and cashing in on 3 out of the L4 (all 4 games decided by less then 5 points ATS). Wake Forest was up and down ATS, they ended the year 6-5 ATS with a 5-3 record against the ACC (don’t be mistaken by the fact that the North Carolina vs. Wake game was technically a non-conference game).

Wake Forest did end the conference schedule winning 3 out of the L4 ATS but they are just 2-3 off an ATS W. Although, the Demon Deacons are coming into this game on a hot streak, winning 4 out of the L6 ATS and in those 6 games, they averaged over 47 PPG and 526 yards! Pitt definitely has the better defense, but they are going to need to be on top of their game to stop this Wake offense that is rolling recently.

What can Oregon do differently to reverse the drubbing they received from Utah two weeks ago? Join Joe, Dave, Adam and Bryan for College Football Daily as we preview this weekend’s NCAAF conference championship games. https://t.co/wRkrItY6DY

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 30, 2021

Pitt vs Wake Forest Analysis from The GoldSheet

Getting a bit more attention for his exploits this season has been Pitt QB Kenny Pickett, who moved to the periphery of the Heisman discussion while en route to 4066 yards passing, 40 TD passes and just 7 interceptions, without a previous hint he was capable of such numbers (Pickett, who has started games at Heinz Field since 2017, never tossed more than 13 TD passes in any preceding campaign!).

The Deacs’ Sam Hartman, however, posted roughly similar numbers (3711 yards & 34 TD passes, plus adding another 10 rush TDs). So, in a battle between top ten offenses, perhaps it’s on the defensive side where there might be the edge, and that would seem to belong to Pitt and its 23 ppg stop unit. But we also suspect that the Panthers might have caught a bit of a break how their scheduled sequenced this season, catching Tennessee and Clemson before their respective offenses found their rhythm, and involved a couple of tense nail-biters earlier in November vs. North Carolina and Virginia. A dynamic Miami, with emerging frosh QB Tyler Van Dyke, was able to outscore the Panthers at Heinz Field on October 30, and MAC also-ran Western Michigan’s RPO caused all sorts of problems for Pat Narduzzi’s defense in a major upset scored by the Broncos back on September 18.

NCAAF Conference Championship Previews

Can Georgia slam the door on Alabama’s playoff dreams, or can the Crimson Tide ensure that the SEC gets two representatives in the final four? Join Drew Martin, Rob Veno and Ralph Michaels for The Best Damn College Football Show every Wednesday at 3:15pm ET / 12:15pm PT. On this week’s episode, we preview the Conference USA title game between UTSA and Western Kentucky; Alabama vs Georgia in the SEC Championship Game; and Cincinnati vs Houston for the AAC title.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for all of the college football conference championship games, including this Pitt vs Wake Forest showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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