Purdue Football Predictions, Strengths & Weaknesses, and Expert Betting Analysis

Purdue Football Predictions & Preview 2023: What Are Their Chances?

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Boilermakers chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on Purdue football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for Purdue football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Boilermakers this season.

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Purdue Football Preview 2023: The Overview

Purdue went 6-3 in conference play for the 2^nd year in a row.  In 2022, that was good enough to reach the title game.  Jeff Brohm improved as a coach over his tenure here, but now he’s off to lead his alma mater, Louisville.  Lots of new questions await the Boilermakers as we head into 2023.

College Football WEEK 1 ULTIMATE Betting Guide Video

Purdue Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH, Betting Insights

Ryan Walters is a defensive coach by trade, and although he does have a defensive coordinator, he’ll be heavily involved on this side of the ball.  Purdue improved to 4.15 per carry allowed last year but I see DL growing pains now and my projection is 4.55. 

I’m also moving the pass defense percentage up to 60%, but there’s a chance I could be a bit high.  I like the hire of Graham Harrell (WV) to lead the offense.  Hudson Card (Texas) replaces Neil O’Connell at QB.  Card’s stat sheet was solid, so there may not be a drop at this position. 

I think the run game will be featured a bit more with this staff.  There’s depth at that position.  The talent is decent at WR but the top WR and top TE are off to the NFL.  The new PK is an unknown and must be charted.

Purdue 2023 Predictions, Purdue Schedule and Obstacles:

Purdue’s 6-3 Big Ten record came with only a 230-219 point differential.  The schedule is a bit tougher now, inside and outside of the conference. 

Games 1-3 are home to Fresno, at VT and home to Syracuse.  With no cupcakes, I should learn plenty about this team right away. 

In fact, Purdue’s first ten games are challenging!  Conference home games in this stretch are Wisconsin (new staff, poor host history), Illinois (close game expected), Ohio State (upset the Buckeyes last time they hosted) and Minnesota (road team has fared well in the series). 

Road games are at Iowa (easy upset win last game there), Nebraska (new staff, some close wins) and Michigan (too tough).  I’m not quite sure what I’ll be charting, but I’ll compare my preseason projections with actual results, looking for major differences, plus study OL and DL play, and the kicking game. 

Even at 4-6, playing at NW and then hosting Indiana gives Purdue a shot at 6-6 and a bowl game.  Purdue holds edges vs. both teams, and on paper, these teams have even more ground to make up coming into 2023.

Purdue Football Bottom Line: Total Expected Wins Over/Under

Similar to Illinois, this schedule screams “highly interesting”.  I like the staff, am fine with the QB switch, and I think the talent level is on par with last year, but the non-conference schedule is more challenging than people may think, and there’s no easing into a Big Ten schedule that looks every bit as rough. 

I show 3-7 or 4-6 heading into the last two (winnable) games.  Charting Purdue games early on should be both interesting and essential.

Purdue Football HANDICAPPING TIP: Expert Tip

As readers of my work know, I suspend team specific situations most of the time when a coaching change has been made.  That takes away data that has been highly relevant here. 

I do think there will be 1-2 fade opportunities in their opening non -conference games.  I’ll let the stat sheet dictate action after that, with one other lean minus (at Michigan) in November on my radar screen..

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