San Diego State vs Utah State Preview | Mountain West Championship

San Diego State vs Utah State Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his San Diego State vs Utah State betting preview for the Mountain West Championship on Saturday, December 4 at from Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California. At the time of posting, the Aztecs are holding steady as a 6-point home favorite over Utah State, with the total sitting at 49.5 points.

Stay on top of the latest College Football updates direct from Las Vegas!

San Diego State vs Utah State Predictions

San Diego State Aztecs -6 vs Utah State Aggies
Total: 49.5 Points
Utah State is 6-0 straight-up, 5-1 against the spread away from Logan this season.
The Aggies went 4-2 against the spread as an underdog.
The under is 6-2 in San Diego State’s last eight games.

The upstart pass-happy Utah State Aggies are preparing to square off against No. 21 ranked San Diego State Aztecs in Carson, California. The MWC rivals are all-in on Saturday afternoon with the reward of winning this high noon contest being crowned Kings of the Mountain West.

These two MWC members were not scheduled to meet during the regular season. All things equal, neither were projected to finish atop their divisions nor be a part of the Moutain’s title tilt. , first place in their respective divisions and playing for the conference belt.

Jeremy Mauss, who contributes to the Mountain West Wire, wrote, “The 2021 Mountain West football title game is Utah State traveling down to Carson, California, to take on the San Diego State Aztecs. A win means a berth to the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl, and maybe, just maybe, an Aztecs win can get them into a New Year’s Six bowl game if Cincinnati does not win the American.”

I understand the enthusiasm in Mr. Mauss’ reach of what might or could happen if the Aztecs earn the “Dub” in the Mountain Title Game. Mauss does write for the conference website. It is over-the-top ridiculous to believe that essentially the conference will support conference teams on the conference website.

For as ridiculous as it would be for the Mountain West Wire not to support Mountain West members, it is just as absurd to believe that this San Diego State group, one that is as one dimensional as any team in a secondary conference outside of the Power-Five, can feel like they have earned a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl contest.

Let’s call a spade a spade, shall we? The Aztecs’ defense is the primary factor in accessing SDSU’s chances of winning a game at an elite level. The level I refer to is considering the Aztecs for a New Year’s Six bowl bid.

The Aztecs are anywhere from 5-to-6 point favorites in this Saturday matchup. And because of their dominating defense, rather dominating defense against Mountain West programs, they are favored to take home the Mountain title against an inconsistent Utah State squad. This is a championship event that the Aztecs can be less-than-average in and still have a better than not chance of claiming the championship victory.

San Diego’s State’s 11-1 mark isn’t a surprise, not to this author. The conference was down this season. Yes, there were hopefuls like Nevada with an NFL-ready quarterback, but there was also a UNLV Runnin Rebels squad that had a seasoned team win total of 1-game.

SDSU ranks seventh in the FBS in points allowed per game. This means nothing more than the Aztecs were good against Moutain competition.

Logan Bonner, the Utah State quarterback, threw for 3,242 yards and completed 32 touchdown passes. However, the key to the Aggies earning a win isn’t Bonner throwing touchdown passes. The reality key, the actual piece that opens the door to the league’s title trophy, is Bonner not making any mistakes, essentially not throwing an interception.

The Aztecs rank among the Top-10 in the FBS in surface numbers, not adjusted, but games against the Mountain programs. In addition, SDSU is a top-10 defense in points per play (0.232), yards per play (4.4), and third-down conversion rate (31.32%).

Their offense has to overcome the injury to their starting quarterback Lucas Johnson.

Head Coach Brady Hoke addressed the Media on Monday about the who and what is likely to happen. He is singled out how Jordon Brookshire positively handled the quarterback switch and managed their offense to victory.

Erwin Mendoza, who contributes to the Mountain West Wire, wrote, “Coach Hoke knows that part of being a coach is to tell your players that if the opportunity comes, be ready. Jordon Brookshire was benched earlier this season in favor of Lucas Johnson, but bringing in the senior from Santa Rosa into the game against Boise State gave a spark to the offense. Brookshire hit wide receiver Jesse Matthews, for a touchdown that brought the Aztecs back to life and fired the defense. The connection Matthews has with quarterbacks Brookshire and Lucas Johnson boils down to his attitude as a great teammate.”

Mendoza added, “Hoke noted that he is not the fastest or strongest, but he is a football player.” According to Hoke, “Brookshire has maintained the same work ethic and decisiveness going into the game. No quarterback has been named the starter for Saturday’s title tilt,” wrote Mendoza.

Note that starting quarterback Lucas Johnson did not practice Monday and will take it day by day until kickoff.

Playing this Mountain Championship outside in San Diego gives the Aggies an edge they wouldn’t have if the game were played at an outdoor venue more representative of the conference name, “Mountain.” As I wrote when outlining, the reality key to this game for the Aggies is quarterback Bonner not making any mistakes. If Bonner’s offensive front keeps him upright more than running for his life and Bonner doesn’t throw an interception on Saturday, this matchup between SDSU and Utah State is a coin flip.

🏈 After playing six weeks in the cold of the Midwest every Tuesday and Wednesday, #MACtion heads indoors at Detroit’s Ford Field for today’s MAC Championship Game. @FinnatWagerTalk offers his thoughts on Kent State vs Northern Illinois.https://t.co/YGy3CHsP6H

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) December 4, 2021

San Diego State vs Utah State Analysis from The GoldSheet

If nothing else, San Diego State is proving that home-field edges can often be overrated in college football. Playing home games in the Los Angeles South Bay, about 110 or so miles from campus, as work progresses on the new stadium adjacent to the old Qualcomm site, the Aztecs haven’t been drawing crowds much greater than the Covid season of last fall, with only friends and family showing up for an early kickoff last Friday vs. Boise State. But SDSU has somehow made it to the MW title game with only one loss despite an aerial game that has the former Mastermind of Montezuma Mesa, Don Coryell, rolling in his grave at another triple-digit Aztec passing ranking (for the record, it’s 121 out of 130).

We think it highly unlikely that early-season starter Jordon Brookshire, completing less than 50% of his passes when pulled by Brady Hoke at midseason, replicates his shock 11-for-15 passing in the 2nd half in relief of ineffective Lucas Johnson that keyed last week’s Aztecs fightback vs. Boise. SDSU has been able to do enough other things well to stay afloat, but as we still don’t trust the passing game, the Aztecs might be pressing their luck if hoping to rely on defense and special teams to outpoint the Utags. Who, it must be noted, didn’t lose in six tries away from Logan (including at Pac-12 Washington State) under first-year HC Blake Anderson, who won plenty of games and made several bowl appearances the past seven seasons at Arkansas State before immediately reigniting a program that had gone stale in Logan.

Following from Jonesboro was QB Logan Bonner, who has proven a big-play catalyst all season in the Cache Valley and enters with 32 TD passes, the sort of numbers they used to see in San Diego during the days of Don Horn, Dennis Shaw, and Brian Sipe, while a functional infantry paced by Oregon State transfer RB Calvin Tyler, Jr. (723 YR) has provided proper balance. We have suspected all season that at some point, the Aztecs’ inability to pass with any consistency was going to prove costly, and that might come on Saturday in Carson.

San Diego State vs Utah State Video Preview

Utah State went a perfect 6-0 on the road this season. Can the Aggies keep that run going for one more game? WagerTalk college football handicappers Dave Cokin, Adam Trigger and Rob Veno offer their San Diego State vs Utah State preview.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for all of the college football conference championship games, including this San Diego State vs Utah State showdown, from your desktop or phone.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.