Sugar Bowl Picks and Predictions | Baylor vs Ole Miss
Sugar Bowl Betting Preview
WagerTalk college football handicapper Kevin Dolan offers his Ole Miss vs Baylor Sugar Bowl betting preview for Saturday, January 1. At the time of posting, the Rebels from the SEC are holding steady as a 1-point favorite over the Bears from Big XII, with the total sitting at 56 points.
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| Sugar Bowl | Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Ole Miss Rebels -1 vs Baylor Bears |
| Total: | 56 Points |
| Game Time: | 8:45pm ET / 5:45pm PT on Saturday, January 1 |
| Stadium: | Caesars Superdome in New Orleans |
| TV: | ESPN |
Sugar Bowl Analysis
This Saturday down in the Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, 11-2 Baylor takes on 10-2 Ole Miss in a battle of offense versus defense in the New Year’s Day Allstate Sugar Bowl.
No team in history has been as successful as the Ole Miss Rebels have in NCAA Bowl action, as Mississippi have notched an impressive 65% win percentage in all Bowl games over their program history. That will be put to the test here on Saturday however as Baylor are one of only three teams in the FBS this season to not allow more than 30 points in a single game all year.
On top of that, the Bears rank 15th nationally on rushing defense this season, giving up just 99.7 yards per game over their last three starts, and enter Saturday’s contest ranking 6th nationally on turnover margin as well, forcing at least one turnover in 21 straight games.
They go up against a team in Mississippi this weekend however that will put that defensive record to the test, possessing genuine dual threat offensive capability.
The Rebels passing game ranks 19th nationally this season on total offensive passing yards produced, putting up 280.0 yards per game on average through the air this season. In addition, Rebels QB Matt Corral ranks top 20 nationally in total passing yards, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, completions per game and overall passing efficiency, with Corral being one of only four QB’s this season with at least 20 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdown’s to his name as well.
That explosive air threat from the Rebels is compounded further by a Mississippi run game that ranks 16th nationally, rushing for 4.8 yards per rush attempt on average, and is the only team in the nation with at least four players totalling 500 or more rushing yards on the season so far.
Baylor’s defense has been standout this year no question, but I expect it to be tested thoroughly here on Saturday as the Rebels have a ton of weapons to call upon offensively in this game.
The over has cashed in 8 of Baylor’s last 11 games against non-conference opposition and with Mississippi’s offense humming right now under Lane Kiffin, we expect another game to tip over the total here in the Sugar Bowl on Saturday down in New Orleans.
Interested in placing a bet on Saturday’s Sugar Bowl? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
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Sugar Bowl Preview from GoldSheet
Win or lose, you have to tip your hat to Matt Corral for even playing in this Sugar Bowl. Baylor head coach Dave Aranda is one of the brightest defensive minds in all of college football and is capable of denting Corral’s draft stock with a great performance from a defense that pulled off upsets of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in winning the Big 12 and finishing 11-2 this season.
The Rebels went 10-2, losing only to Alabama and Auburn in road games while joining the Bears in carrying a four-game winning streak into this contest. The Bears won’t have Blake Shapen under center since he’s recovering from a shoulder issue but will have Gerry Bohannon back at the controls now that he’s back from a hamstring injury. Bohannon is more of a game manager but has proven quite capable of beating you with his arm and his feet. He’s facing an Ole Miss defense that was much improved this season and gave up no more that 21 points in any of their last five victories, which included conquests of LSU, Malik Willis-led Liberty, Texas A&M and Mississippi State.
The Bears have been elite defensively all season and take aim at a Lane Kiffin-coached attack that incorporates a fast pace and is loaded with playmakers. Kiffin did divulge that his team has been dealing with some COVID issues so keep abreast of that situation but the fact is Corral will have more playmakers available than he did during the season due to a myriad of injuries so he’s got a chance to actually enhance his draft stock if he can lead the Rebels past Baylor.
Sugar Bowl Stats
College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the Sugar Bowl before diving into this FREE download.
College Football Daily
Join Joe Raineri, Ralph Michaels, Steve Merril and Adam Trigger for College Football Daily as we preview this week’s bowl slate. In this episode, we’ll break down Oregon vs Oklahoma (Alamo Bowl); Georgia vs Michigan (Orange Bowl); Cincinnati vs Alabama (Cotton Bowl); and South Carolina vs North Carolina (Duke’s Mayo Bowl).
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this Sugar Bowl showdown between Ole Miss and Baylor, from your desktop or phone.
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