Tennessee vs Ohio State Predictions and Preview | Top College Football Playoff Picks

Expert college football analyst Ron Marmalefsky looks at the College Football Playoff matchup of Tennessee vs Ohio State before kickoff!

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College Football Playoff Overview

Tennessee lost two games, at Arkansas and at Georgia. They survived in overtime vs. Florida, a week before their (lookahead) game vs. Alabama, which they won. 

Ohio State got style points for barely losing a great game at Oregon, but that home loss to Michigan as a 19.5 point favorite was not a good look, especially with all the revenge motives. 

They did win at Penn State and at home to upstart Indiana, but this game could easily have been played at Tennessee. I like this matchup as well.

Tennessee Football Preview

Tennessee has averaged about 24 points per game in SEC play the past two seasons.  6’6” QB Nico Iamaleava came with much hype, but wasn’t especially star-worthy. 

He put up solid numbers, but the offense stayed mostly the same from a year ago.  The talent surrounding him is underrated. 

RB Sampson ran for nearly 1,500 yards, at 5.8 per carry, with 22 rush TD’s.  Four WR’s and a TE add value. 

Bru McCoy’s career has been injury-ridden, but at full strength he has NFL potential. Squirrel White has had injury issues as well, but when healthy, he is a high-volume target. 

Both look healthy for this game, and McCoy in particular has come up big in marquee games. 

Obviously, Ohio State and its 11-point defense is a massive test, but run-pass balance is available.  Defensively, Tennessee remains underrated. 

Two teams, Georgia (31) and Vanderbilt (23 in the finale) scored over 18 points.  Tennessee allowed a corrected for sacks 3.2 yards per carry, slowing down most run teams to below seasonal averages. 

Again, host Ohio State will be a test, but I don’t expect a big showing.  They will however, have to prevent both the splash run play as well as the splash pass play (see Ohio State notes). 

In ’23, Tennessee allowed 67% passing. The number was 57% this season. Alabama (Milroe) was 25-45.  Georgia (Beck) was 25-40. The goal will be 60% here as they face a QB with electric accuracy. The 3^rd down success rate was solid on both sides of the ball.  

Tennessee’s sack ratio regressed to 29-26. Despite OL injuries with Ohio State, it’s possible the Vols won’t get to QB Howard much.  Kicking was 19-25.  The touchback rate was 85%. There are two solid punt returners.

Ohio State Football Preview

Chip Kelly came over to revitalize and modernize the offense, but his system takes time to learn. The numbers were good, but not lights out good. 

My 5.1 yards per carry preseason projection was deadly accurate.  The skilled position players are elite.  Their two RB’s are threats to hit a big play. 

They go three-WR deep, and all will play on Sunday. The OL allowed just 13 sacks. What I didn’t like is Kelly’s play calling vs. Michigan. 

For THAT game, you needed to pass the ball, not run into the teeth of Michigan’s DL. On the defensive side, Jim Knowles is one of the best NCAA coordinators. No team scored more than 17 points on Ohio State. 

Oregon ran 31-155, but that figure was below their seasonal numbers. The shocker was Ohio State’s pass defense.  It was 58% in ’22, and 52.2% in ’23. 

With many returning starters, the same range was expected this season. Instead, they allowed 60%. I think they will limit splash plays, but based on seasonal performance, not limit pass completions. 

One more note on the offense. QB Howard hit 72.3%, with six games above 80%.  His worst outing was vs. Michigan (19-33, 175, two interceptions). 

He’s often maligned, but dangerous if he gets into rhythm with his quality WR’s. In four comparable games, he was 84-117, for 892 yards and a 9-4 ratio. 

Tennessee’s task is to limit splash plays. Despite a bad outing vs. Michigan, kicking was 9-12. The sack ratio was 35-13. The touchback rate was 69%. The 3^rd down defense is solid.

Tennessee vs Ohio State: Keys To The Game

Tennessee’s QB must rise to this big stage. He did so a year ago (bowl game) vs. defensively solid Iowa.  RB Sampson must be force fed, opening up the short and long pass game. 

Containment is the name of the game defensively. Is there any shot of putting pressure on QB Howard?  Ohio State needs to be really balanced offensively. 

They blew the Michigan game plan, but this opponent requires a different mindset. Their pass rush success is important, as Tennessee has as much run-pass balance as does Ohio state. There’s a high ceiling for Ohio State, but it hasn’t been reached as much as expected.

Tennessee vs Ohio State Predictions: Tennessee +7.5 / Will Howard UNDER 10.5 Rushing Yards / Chris Brazzell UNDER 25.5 Receiving Yards

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