Tony Finn’s 2021 Heisman Profile: Matt Corral

2021 Heisman Betting Update

WagerTalk handicapper Tony Finn offers his thoughts on the 2021 Heisman Trophy race. Alabama QB Bryce Young and Ole Miss QB Matt Corral have been atop the odds board for most of the season, but Finn has a strong preference for one over the other.

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Historical Heisman Trends

There is a common denominator to the Heisman; in truth, there are two. The combination of these factors is part of the answer to the big picture question. My Free Pick advice isn’t just about who I have pushed in on at the sportsbook counter this week, but also the critical piece of the equation to who can and will be the 2021 Heisman Trophy award winner.

And all three of the non-quarterbacks were players from the Ottoman Empire Conference, and the trio all played for the same university athletic program and served the same, King. The school was Alabama and the King was Nick Saban.

2009 Mark Ingram Jr. / Alabama / RB
2015 Derrick Henry / Alabama / RB
2020 DeVonta Smith / Alabama / WR

When placing money on a college football future in the Heisman Trophy Award category, the two common denominators in the winner are: 1) The Heisman Trophy Award winner is a quarterback or; 2) The Heisman Trophy Award winner, who is a non-quarterback, plays for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Alabama Crimson Tide candidates for the 2021 Heisman Trophy Award include:

RB Brian Robinson Jr. / Senior
WR Jameson Williams / Junior
QB Bryce Young / Sophomore

Finn Factor Midseason 2021 Heisman Trophy Award Winner

Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral led the Rebels to a 54-17 win over Austin Peay in Week 5 of the season that has been suggested as the game performance that could prevent him from earning the needed votes to win the 2021 Heisman.

Corral completed 21-of-33 passes for 281 yards. His longest completion in the win over Austin Peay was only 19 yards, and it was his first and only game this season he didn’t throw a touchdown pass.

The Ole Miss signal-caller bounced back with a two-touchdown and winning performance against Arkansas. The Rebels earned the victory with a 52-51 final. Corral threw for 287 yards and two touchdowns. The Ole Miss quarterback had 15 runs for 94 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns.

Corral has completed 101 of his 146 pass attempts this season for 1497 yards and 12 touchdowns. The Rebels have 12 regular-season games remaining. Corral and the Rebels remaining contest come against @Tennessee, LSU, @Auburn, Liberty, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, and @Mississippi State. Of the remaining games, of which only three are on the road, the tilts @Auburn and vs Texas A&M are the most challenging from the perspective that the Tigers and the Aggies are the two best defenses that Corral will face.

If Corral can keep pace with his average slash line through the end of the season his season slash line looks like this;

Matt Corral Season Statistics

Passing

242-of-350 for 3,593 yards that includes 29 touchdowns against 0 interceptions.

Rushing

139 rushing attempts for 612 yards and 19 TDs

Corral’s all-purpose season-ending yards from scrimmage would total 4,205 yards and 48 TDs if one extends his current per-game average through the remaining seven contests of the season.

The current odds for Corral to win the Heisman, +200 at Westgate of Las Vegas, won’t allow one to retire, but. …. the reasonable belief that Corral can finish what he started, with the strength of schedule that remains, would not only secure the Ole Miss quarterback the Heisman Award; the results of the voting would find him a near-unanimous selection winner.

🤔WagerTalk Media Did You Know? There are 870 media votes for the Heisman, 145 from each of the 6 regions. From 2008-2014 @CalSportsLV was one of those votes and was correct 6 of the 7 years, except in 2009 when he voted Toby Gerhart #1 and Mark Ingram #2! pic.twitter.com/3D4qplaqda

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 14, 2021

NCAAF Week 7 Betting Angles from The GoldSheet

• New Mexico is 2-15 against the spread in the Lobos’ last 17 home games.
• Colorado State is 8-0 straight-up, 7-1 against the spread in the Rams’ last eight games against New Mexico.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of the last five meetings between UTEP and Louisiana Tech.
• Mississippi State is 1-5 against the spread in SEC home games under head coach Mike Leach.
• Liberty is 13-1 against the spread in the Flames’ last 14 games.
• UNLV is 0-5 straight-up and against the spread at Allegiant Stadium over the last two seasons.
• Kentucky is 17-10 against the spread as an underdog since 2016.
• Southern Miss is 5-14 against the spread in the Eagles’ last 19 games.
• Miami is 6-13 against the spread in the Hurricanes’ last 19 games.
• Pitt in 9-3 against the spread in the Panthers’ last 12 road games, and Pitt has covered six of the last seven meetings with Virginia Tech.
• Since losing to Purdue in Week 1 last season, Iowa is 11-2 against the spread.
• Arizona is 5-13 against the spread in the Wildcats’ current 18-game losing streak.
• Wyoming has covered the spread in ten-straight home games against FBS opponents.
• Arkansas is 13-4 against the spread under head coach Sam Pittman.
• LSU has won and covered the spread in three of the last four meetings with Florida, including an outright win as a 23-point underdog last season.
• Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in each of the Tigers’ last nine games.
• Virginia is 5-0 straight-up and against the spread vs Duke under Bronco Mendenhall.
• Duke is 2-8-1 against the spread in the Blue Devils’ last 11 road games.
• Virginia is 9-2 against the spread in the Cavs’ last 11 home games.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of the last four meetings between Texas and Oklahoma State.
• UCF is 7-18 against the spread in the Knights’ last 25 games, including 1-4 so far this season.
• Cal is 8-1 against the spread in the Bears’ last nine games as a road underdog.
• North Texas is 10-23 against the spread in the Mean Green’s last 33 games.
• Syracuse has covered the spread in three of the last four meetings with Clemson, including an outright win.
• Georgia Southern has won the last seven meetings with South Alabama, covering the spread in six of those seven games.

College Football Daily

Tennessee hosts Ole Miss on Saturday night with the total set at 83 points! Is it high enough? Join Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Steve Merril and Rob Veno for College Football Daily as we preview the marquee College Football Week 7 matchups, including Virginia Tech vs Pitt; Tennessee vs Ole Miss; Indiana vs Michigan State; and Missouri vs Texas A&M.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the College Football Week 7 moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more from your desktop or phone.

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