Tony Finn’s Big Ten Football Week 6 Preview

Big Ten Football Week 6 Predictions

WagerTalk handicapper Tony Finn offers his betting analysis on this week’s marquee Big Ten Football games. Who will emerge from the top-5 battle in Iowa City between the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions? Can Michigan State keep their undefeated season alive? Check out Tony’s Big Ten Football breakdown.

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Big Ten Football Betting Notes

Ohio State -21 vs Maryland (o/u 71) – Buckeye faithful and the program’s network supporters have been mostly silent, ever invisible since the Buckeyes fell to the Pac-12 Oregon Ducks in Week 2.

Ohio State opened as minus-15 road chalk at Rutgers in the Week 15 matchup. Hindsight is said to be 20-20, and considering the back-and-forth sportsbook counteraction in this Big 10 contest, the public and pros taking positions on both sides, the result being a Buckeyes blowout, seemed like a missed opportunity for those on the sidelines in the Buckeyes win.

Most pundits believed that once Ohio State announced that quarterback CJ Stroud would play and start the line would make a sharp move. The handicap held serves to kickoff.

Further review of the perception of a Rutgers team tape revealed just how hard Rutgers played in the game a week ahead of OSU. The Scarlett Knights had just performed admirably in a loss/cover against the Wolverines. Ohio State took a step down in class resulting in a pair of walks-in-the-park over Tulsa and Akron.

Following the Buckeyes beatdown of Rutgers last weekend, an OSU 52-13 final, the oddsmakers have subtly shifted to who Ohio State can still be, and the market price to support OSU is inflated versus a Maryland team off an embarrassing loss to Iowa.

The Buckeyes improve to 4-1 overall and 2-0 in Big Ten play with their Week 5 win over the Terps and again in the January Four conversation.

Redshirt frosh C.J. Stroud returned to his starting role behind center, throwing for 330 yards on 17-of-23 attempts. Stroud’s success through the air resulted in a season-high five touchdown passes. Senior wide receiver Chris Olave snatched five passes from Stroud for 119 yards and two touchdowns.

Maryland, who kicked off the 2021 season a perfect 4-0, we’re humbled by Iowa. The Terrapins’ entire season took a sharp left turn as the result of one bad bounce. That unfortunate bounce began in the second quarter of last week’s loss to the Hawkeyes when Iowa was outscored 31-0 due largely to four second-quarter turnovers.

Ohio State’s offense ranked No. 2 in the nation, scored on its first six possessions against a capable Rutgers defense. The Knights had surrendered only 54 points in its first four games.
The Buckeyes’ defense has grown by leaps and bounds since allowing the Oregon Ducks to register 269 rushing yards in the Week 2 debacle.

Most of those who have a confident pulse on the conference don’t question the Buckeyes offensive upside. They do, however, question the fortitude of Ryan Day’s defense.

The Buckeyes are 4-1 straight and 2-3 against the number sitting on the back of a three-game winning streak. The 4-1 Terps resume is pillow-soft, and their 3-2 ATS mark is practically invisible save the Week 1 victory as a short home dog against West Virginia. The exchange rate on the victory over the Mountaineers isn’t returning that “loving feeling” it did two weeks ago.

The current minus-20.5 handicap that Ohio State carries into this College Saturday contest is metrically correct, affordable, and fair. Backing the Buckeyes and laying the wood in this matchup feels much like a bargain than a burden.

🏈 Maryland is coming off a 37-point loss to Iowa, while Ohio State beat Rutgers by 39. Two teams off two drastically different performances. Anyone interested in the Terps? @kellyinvegas @TopFlightSI and @davecokin offer their thoughts.#GoBucks | #TBIA https://t.co/jDRH3fFGlg

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 6, 2021

Michigan State -5 at Rutgers (o/u 51) – Without having an emotional connection to the university, the city of Lansing, or the Big 10 as a whole, I am numb to the Spartans. Moving away from the common reality of normal, the best diagnosis for my numbness is the lack of physical sensation needed to get excited about anything; in this case, it is Michigan State. The pathological apathy isn’t justified considering Sparty is a perfect 5-0 with double-digit road victories over league foe Northwestern and the talent-rich Miami Hurricanes.

Part of the current vanilla taste of Michigan State can be attributed to the Spartans entering league play unranked. The Spartans’ slow climb out of mediocrity now offers the possibility of a Halloween-eve matchup against in-state rival Michigan, with both programs having perfect 7-0 records.

Michigan State softened their scheme in the final quarter of last week’s nonconference event against the uptempo offense of Western Kentucky. The Spartans allowed 31 points and 560 yards of total offense to the Hilltoppers’ well-coached Air-Raid scheme. State held serve and earned a win and a cover as a minus-11 point favorite The Mel Tucker-led Spartans slow-played the pocket aces they held with a 45-16 lead at the start of the fourth quarter.

Tucker’s staff has been proactive in spawning doubt, with offensive formations typically used to run a mesh scheme at opposing defensive secondaries with routes that stretch the defense. Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker III has benefited from the lack of safeties in the box. Walker III averaged five yards a carry against WKU, gaining 126 yards and finding the endzone three times.

The big-play threat of outside receivers Jalen Nailor and Jayden Reed present Big 10 defenses that man-up as much as they play a two-high scheme are gambling against a quality Spartans offensive line that has allowed just eight sacks in the first five games.

Michigan State scored six touchdowns in the first half of the team’s Saturday win over Western Kentucky to open up a 26-point lead. I don’t issue a large weight to home-field advantage when accessing a matchup not handing Sparty, and the 70,075 fans with drinks in their hands some form of advantage would be underselling East Lansing.

Tucker and his staff don’t have to be reminded that being impatient with this Greg Schiano-led Rutgers group is a mistake that is difficult to overcome. The probability of beating this well-coached Rutgers group is by creating turnovers. Those come by putting the Knights offense in 3rd down and distance situations.

The Spartans secondary isn’t the most talented in the conference but what coach Schiano wants to do is exactly what Tucker and his staff want. Schiano wants to grind out feet, not yards on the ground, and Tucker and his defensive front want you to try.

The Michigan State defense has surrendered 24 first downs per game, but they bend and don’t break defense that ranks 107th against the pass with 265 yards allowed per game is 5-0 on the season with an average margin of victory of 14 points per game.

A large percentage of Team Lansing yards allowed via the pass have come in garbage time. The Spartans are handing out 131 ground and pound yards per game.

The Spartans have allowed 3.1, 3.7, 2.2, 3.9, and 2.8 yards per carry in the first five games; all wins this season.

Wisconsin -11 at Illinois (o/u 42) – The Badgers rank the third most efficient total defensive team in the FBS. Considering the numbers, Wisconsin surrendered to the Michigan Wolverines speaks to how technically sound the unit is. Offenses that are handicapped with small, speedy wideouts scuffle to convert third downs against this Whiskey crew.

With all the accolades and butt slaps I just issued, Paul Chryst’s Wisconsin offense, especially under the guidance of the head coach, will ever threaten to be a part of the January Four or force opposing defensive coordinators to lose sleep on Friday night.

Chryst was the head coach at Pittsburgh from 2012-2014. His 2012 team averaged 26.6 points per game, 2013 the offense scored 26.3 per game and in his final season as the Panthers head coach and his offense averaged 31 points per contest.

The 2012 team finished 6-6 on the season and earned a bowl with a bid to be a part of the Compass event. Ole Miss put an arse-kicking on Chryst and his Panthers by a 38-17 final.

The 2013 squad finished 6-6 and won the Caesars Bowl with a 30-27 victory over Bowling Green.

Chryst’s 2014 Panthers team was … yep … 6-6 and failed to earn a bowl win for the second of PC’s third season in Pittsburgh, dropping the Armed Forces Bowl to Houston by a 35-34 final.

As the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin from 2005 to 2011, his 2005 passing scheme failed to register more than 191 passing yards in five of the team’s 12 games.

In the 12 games that OC Chryst directed the offense, the Badgers didn’t exceed 193 yards passing in four games. Against Mountain West, San Diego State quarterback John Stocco threw for 85 total yards on 23 pass attempts averaging 3.7 yards per pass.

The Chryst-led aerial scheme of the Badgers in 2007 threw for less than 155 yards in five games, and one of those was a 91-yard performance against Indiana.

I will stop there and let your imagination tell you the rest of the story – in terms of who Chryst has been as an offensive coordinator.

The above statements are dripping with sarcasm because, in the age of video football, speed rules all things, and defense no longer wins championships. Defense is the icing of a team. The cake is the offense and who they are.

Week-in and week-out, the Wisconsin papers and sports talk radio shows are littered with Wisconsin football fans that are finally asking the question I have been for the last 10-plus years. Why, how, and who hired Paul Christ to be the head coach and the play-caller in a college orbit that is score and score a lot or … go home.

At Soldier Field two Saturdays ago, the Badgers did the only thing they are staffed to do. That “do” is defending the trenches, stopping the run, and wishing on a falling star if everything else fails.

Note, everything is failing in 2021.

Wisconsin led Notre Dame 13-10 shortly after the scoreboard clock started ticking away the 15 minutes of the fourth quarter. It was at that point that coach Paul and his minions decided to work the clock. After all, they had a lead, albeit a three points lead, with no plan to keep the lead.

The Badgers were the victim of a kickoff return for a touchdown. Unprepared and less-than QB Graham Mertz lost a fumble and threw three interceptions, two of which were returned for a touchdown. Yes, in the fourth quarter alone.

Wisconsin outgained Notre Dame, 318-248, and held running back duo of Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree to 39 yards on 20 carries. The final score in the Whisky and Irish contest?

Wait for it … Notre Dame won by the score of 41-13 over the offensively challenged Badgers.

If you have some time to waste before Saturday kicks off, the slate of campus contests from early to late Saturday represents a second straight weekend of damn good football. Or it should be damn good football.

Last week’s Michigan and Wisconsin contest found back and forth action in the neighborhood of a pick them, but by Friday, the sharp money started finding its way to the Vegas counters pushing Whiskey to a 1-to-2.5 points home favorite. Michigan bulldozed the Wisconsin front seven. At last count, coach Harbaugh and his staff raised the blade of the Dozer and pushed forward 44 times in total. The Wolverines gained only 2.5 yards per rushing attempt for a total of 112 yards, but all of that work made throwing the ball against a physically beaten Whiskey group easy.

Michigan threw the ball 30 times. Easily the most pass attempts to date in the 2021 season.

The Badgers’ last two Saturday matchups have resulted in 20-plus point losses. In both of those lopsided defeats, Wisconsin was in the game to start the fourth quarter.

Wisconsin allowed the Irish to score 31 fourth-quarter points, and last week, Michigan recorded 18 points in the final 15 minutes. The Badgers’ defense was exhausted and incapable of closing out the game, let alone having the offense to outscore their opponents. If Whiskey was given two hours between the end of the third and the start of the fourth stanza, they could not have defeated the Irish or the Wolverines. They don’t have the players to execute what the Chryst staff believes is the best plays in said situation.

Harbaugh took a perfect record, a group of players who have bought into how he wants Michigan football to be played; the games planned as close to perfect as I can remember in his U of M tenure, and he did all of this in the role of a visitor.

To continue to beat a dead horse doesn’t help us find a matchup with a bum leg, arm, or both and take advantage of it. The Badgers are doing all they can with the player personnel they roster the coaching staff’s ancient schemes and the dysfunctional stubbornness that will find them packing their trunk and exiting Madison sooner than later.

What Christ and his coaches are asking Graham Mertz to do is outside and beyond his skill-set.

If you support Wisconsin as a double-digit road dog on Saturday in Champaign, then you have more faith in the Badgers offense than I do. I am uncertain that this Whiskey offensive unit can score 10 points yet alone cover the current number away from Camp Randall.

Iowa -1.5 vs Penn State (o/u 41) – Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City showcases arguably the biggest campus contest on College Saturday of Week 6. The AP No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions played their most complete game of the season in a Week 5, scoring 24 points and holding the Indiana Hoosiers off the scoreboard. The No. 3 in the AP poll, Iowa handed Maryland their worst defeat of the season in a 51-14 blowout at Capital One Field.

Iowa scored on nine consecutive possessions during one stretch and, in the end, had their highest game point total (51) of the season. Once again, the Hawkeyes took advantage of their opponent’s mistakes, turnovers, positioning them in short fields. The Hawkeyes averaged 35.5 yards on their six first-half scoring drives.

Penn State opened as a double-digit favorite in their Week 5 win over Indiana. The Pros hit the Lions hard throughout the day Friday, and a trickling of pre-kickoff wagers moved the game night spread to as much as minus-13. There was a scattering of Indiana paper across and around the strip 30-to-60 minutes before kickoff resulting in several local stores closing at minus-12.5 after peaking at Lucky 13.

The Friday night storyline for the Hawkeyes was a rinse and repeat of previous Saturdays. Iowa forced nearly two turnovers per quarter in the Week 5 Big Ten affair. The Iowa City squad was + 7 in turnover margin, and as a result, the 51 points they scored was a bit misleading. The final point-tally for Iowa came on a mere 5.35 yards per play. Spencer Petras threw for 259 yards on 21-of-30 passing. The Hawkeyes had, but two scoring drives longer than 60 yards.

The current perception of this Hawkeyes team, publically, is that they are the top program in the Big 10 this season. Assuming such and suggesting that Iowa City player personnel reside atop Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State in the conference standings is stepping up and stating that the offense isn’t receiving its due credit. If I were to be confronted by a fan or a qualified and knowledgable pundit, I wouldn’t back off my position that the Hawkeyes have not only benefited from a soggy schedule but that without winning the turnover margin in each game, there is the stance I could argue that would have Iowa with a loss rather than the current 5-0 mark they own. I’m not just hesitant in supporting the Hawkeyes against a legitimate contender with a validated profile, but that they might not be the third-best team in the BIG yet alone the No. 3 program in the country, according to the AP wire.

I share my work and workspace with a variety of personalities and knowledgeable footballers. While they might not agree with my statement on where the Hawkeyes stack up against their conference brethren, I have yet to be challenged with a single argument.

That Iowa is defensively elite. But the smoke and mirrors that peak out of the season stat sheet speak differently than those who claim stats and numbers don’t lie. The Hawkeyes point differential and offensive numbers present crystal clear evidence that Iowa wouldn’t be the favorite to come out of the extra game period on top in an overtime scenario.

Buyer beware when considering a play on the Hawkeyes skill-set, raw talent, and capabilities to outscore a large contingent of the conference.

Suppose Iowa plays to a level that allows them to earn a “Dub” and exit Week 6 stage right then the probability of the Hawkeyes turning their post-Penn State victory and 6-0 mark to 12-0 following the Friday morning, day after Thanksgiving, to a perfect 12-0 conclusion to the 2021 regular season. Iowa doesn’t have Michigan, Michigan State, or Ohio State on their regular-season slate. Following Saturday’s event in Iowa City against the Lions, the Hawkeyes play Purdue, at Wisconsin, at Northwestern, vs. Minnesota, followed by Illinois and close the campaign on the road in Lincoln against the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

The scenario above, regardless of opponent, would be hard-earned and is my perception of “the others” in the conference. Any argument I could present would be laughed out of a court of law as Cinderella Story or even Fairy Tale and certainly declared speculative.

Flashback to 2015, while working their way through a regular-season schedule that saw the Hawkeyes 7-0 following a win at 20th ranked Northwestern and a Week 5 win-win at Camp Randall that wore a 10-6 win over 19th ranked Wisconsin. Iowa tucked their 7-0 mark under one of the reinforcement supports in their shoulder pads and won four consecutive, against Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue before landing in Lincoln on the final Saturday of November, where a win would propel Iowa to the Big 10 Championship game in Indianapolis proudly wearing a perfect 12-0 record on their sleave.

Iowa surrendered a touchdown to the 5th ranked Michigan State Spartans with 27 remaining to lose their spot in the January Four.

It came within 30 seconds of the College Football Playoff before Michigan State stole the Big Ten title game. With neither the Buckeyes nor undefeated Michigan or Michigan State on the schedule and Wisconsin proving a false alarm in the West, this matchup against James Franklin’s Nittany Lions looks to be the 5-0 Hawkeyes’ greatest challenge before the Big Ten title game.

I could issue a Surgeon General’s warning about drinking the kool-aid from a souvenir Iowa Hawkeye plastic cup or subtly grabbing a random apple out of the fridge in the employee break room. The kool-aid is likely artificially sweetened, and the apple … poisoned.

When this betting guide went to press, Iowa was handcuffed with a minus-2 handicap, a spread that is likely to shrink to a pick by kickoff due to several sharp groups and heavy-hitting pros taking a position on Penn State.

🏈The last two meetings between the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes in Iowa City have seen 29 and 40 points. What can we expect in Saturday’s top-5 showdown? @DrewMartinBets @robvenosports and @FinnatWagerTalk weigh in with their thoughts.#WeAre | #Hawkeyeshttps://t.co/sOlbfO8ieE

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 6, 2021

Michigan -3 at Nebraska (o/u 50.5) – What took you so long, coach? The Wolverines (5-0, 2-0) head coach and former quarterback Jim Harbaugh is being asked that very question. It may not be worded exactly as such, but the gist that reporters and fans alike are looking for is just that … what the hell took so long for you to coach up a team and trust them to perform to your specs.

Harbaugh’s victory over the Badgers in Madison this past Saturday was the first, the first win by Michigan football, since 2001. The Michigan front line played to their responsibilities and defeated Whiskey by a 38-17 final.

Harbaugh’s weekly news conferences, all of them, but particularly his Monday sessions, now have more reporters, more cameras. While many perceive that winning relieves pressure, it is the opposite in Harbaugh’s case. The Wolverines have impressed and the million-dollar questions thrown at him in daily pressers; e.g., What took you so long? What is different? What have you [Harbaugh] done differently? These queries won’t stop anytime soon. And to throw you an oxymoron, the market value of the Wolverines has slowly morphed into a wormhole that is moving at warp speed.

An example of this is the bookmakers’ line in Week 2 in a matchup against Washington at the Big House. Michigan closed as a minus-6.5 home favorite. Upon Harbaugh’s players earning a victory over the Pac-12 Huskies, the next Power-5 contest that Michigan faced was another Big House affair, vs. Rutgers, in which Michigan closed as a minus-20 point home fave.

Michigan has been good enough this season, better than any of Harbaugh’s previous teams during his tenure, that being successful means more press, more pressure, more of everything, including market value. With this Michigan group performing at an elite level in nearly every important phase of the game, the questions I outlined in a previous paragraph continue to be thrown at coach Jim’s podium.

“The biggest thing is just how hard they’re playing,” Harbaugh said at Monday’s press conference. “And they’re having fun doing it. Good things happen when you play hard. Energy. Energy finds the ball, whether you’re on defense or you’re on offense. The ball finds you.”

A large part of my formula when handicapping teams, in particular those that play the same schedule and utilize similar schemes, is finding the difference between the two programs is trip-capping. The visual of a team, the feel of how a team communicates before, between, and after plays.

Winning is contagious and what comes with that virus is hustle, desire, and not losing that “loving feeling.” The film will reveal more players taking serious the role of blocking at the first level and beyond. That doesn’t mean just offensive linemen but wide receivers, tight ends, and more.

The Wolverines, before the contest against Whiskey at Camp Randall, Michigan, was running the ball in almost 74% of their snaps. The conservative run-first scheme that Harbaugh has used in the early stages of this season took a twist last Saturday. With the knowledge that it is difficult to pound the ball up the middle of the Badgers’ defense, Harbaugh put more passing plays into the game plan. Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara had attempted only 53 passes before the matchup at Camp Randall this past Saturday. Michigan has been reliant on the ground game. The Wolverines were fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game (290.8), sixth in yards per carrying (6.25), and tied for first in rushing touchdowns (17) after four games.

It shouldn’t leap of faith to believe that Harbaugh can coach. Nor should it be unexpected when he and his staff are creative and become more balanced offensively over the second half of this season. Any self-respecting footballer knows that the Harbaugh staff understands that if they are going to be knee-deep in the November battle to be a part of the College Football Playoff conversation, Michigan could not rely solely on running the ball. Not against Wisconsin. Not against any team that remains on the Wolverines schedule.

If you and I have numbers that reflect that Wisconsin had allowed a total of 69 yards on the ground in three games before doing the tango with Michigan, are we to stupidly assume that Harbaugh doesn’t. Is anyone, including the upcoming schools, that will square off against McNamara and the Michigan offense of the belief that McNamara will hand the ball off 50 times per game?

The Wolverines’ 4-0 record includes non conference victories over Washington, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois. Michigan opened Big Ten play last week with a 20-13 win against Rutgers that raised some red flags.

Harbaugh is, in many ways, old school in the choices of scheme and risk as a play-caller. Rutgers limited the Wolverines to 47 total yards and no points in the second half. The Michigan coaching staff, including Harbaugh, should be sending. Thank you notes to Jersey and the Rutgers coaching staff for the wake-up call. The victory over Wisconsin at Camp Randall a week ago was against the best-run defense in college football. Chryst and his staff loaded the box and dared the Michigan offense and McNamara to throw the football. That is exactly what they did. It is what they did and what preparation in-game planning creates … success. The Wolverines quarterback completed 17-of-28 passes for 197 yards.

The Wolverines opened as 1-point favorites in the Sunday overnight lines. Most of the Vegas shops and the larger Offshores never positioned a minus-1 on Michigan. Pinnacle and other reliable and reputable stores opened Harbaugh’s boys a minus-3. Since then, there has been nearly zero buy-on the hometown Cornhuskers, and the -3 is now -3.5, and -4 at some offshores.

Nebraska stretched their overall record to 3-3 and own a perfect 3-0 mark in Lincoln. Martinez and company registered 657 yards of offense, including 427 yards on the ground and seven rushing touchdowns, while shutting down Northwestern’s running games. Note: Michigan isn’t Northwestern.

Best Damn College Football Show

Seven of the last eight meetings in the Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma have been decided by one score. Who will emerge from The Cotton Bowl victorious on Saturday? Join Steve Merril, Drew Martin and Rob Veno for The Best Damn College Football Show.

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