Tony Finn's Week 5 ACC Football Betting Preview

ACC Football Week 5 Predictions

WagerTalk handicapper Tony Finn offers his betting analysis on this week’s marquee ACC Football games. Can Florida State pick up their first win? Can Clemson bounce back after last week’s disappointing loss to North Carolina State? Can Wake Forest stay atop the ACC Football standings? Check out Tony’s betting breakdown.

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ACC Football Betting Notes

Florida State -5 vs Syracuse: Rest assured, Florida State head coach Mike Norvell and his talented group of footballers will be playing with an attitude Saturday morning. The raw talent of the four and five-star recruits have seen, heard, and read enough that is pushing the theory that this team of footballers is underachieving primadonnas.

Coach Norvell passionately believes in his kids. He was adamant that this group of individuals would impress moving forward. The negative dialogue by radio sports show hosts created a focus for the major portals talking heads to stretch. The Florida media can’t get enough of reporting on the pimples of this 2021 Noles’ program.

The Noles alumi and boosters have not experienced this much national pain and suffering from their football team in nearly 50 years. One has to set a date and place with a time machine and travel back to 1974 to find an FSU team that started the season 0-4.

The media room at Florida State was a buzz after coach Norvell spoke for more than three minutes on the State of the Seminoles this past weekend. The meet the press event wasn’t intended to find Norvell talking from what he understands to be the reality of his players. What started to be a dialogue about his incoming recruits went off the rail and spilled into how Norvell sees the current locker room.

The tone, topics, and texture of Norvell’s speech directed between the eyes of the local and national media were real. That moment this past weekend that found Norvell passionately taking bullets for his kids was sincere.

The ‘Noles coach addressed everything, and anything he believed might be asked of him. He did so in a firm and confident tone in which one could tell he was comfortable addressing.

Why?

I believe it is because what he said is what the State of the locker room truly is inside and outside the team facilities.

“I’m pissed off that we’re 0-4, and we can bring up how many years it’s been,” Norvell said with conviction. “I can’t control that. I can control this team at this moment and right now with the opportunity. So we’re going to work our butts off to get better, and we’re going to do it the right way. And we’re going to have a standard of how we operate, the same standard of everything we do. I’m going to hold myself to it because I’ve got to be the example. Does that mean I’m not going to make a mistake? I’ll probably make a mistake. I might make one today, might make one tomorrow, but I will respond to that. That’s the team I won’t because I’ve seen it work.”

The loss to Wake Forrest will not be a scar at the end of the season. Not if the Deacs perform to the level I believe they will. I look ahead at the Deamon Deacons finds them taking a short trip to UNC to square off against the Tar Heels with a perfect 8-0 record.

FSU’s opponent this Saturday, the Syracuse Orange, found victory against Liberty a week ago without even a whimper or verbal threat of throwing the football. Liberty outgained the Orange in the loss and held ‘Cuse to less than 70 passing yards.

Stand in front of the Seminoles this weekend … if you dare.

Clemson -15 vs Boston College: From a personal standpoint, this offseason, I was wrong about Dabo Sweeney’s 2021 Tigers and what the program was capable of without Trevor Lawrence. More mistakes than I prefer to confess to but enough that my experience tells me to seek closure.

After watching and studying the game tape of the Tigers across the first two weeks of the 2021 campaign readdressing the true value of this year’s Clemson team was a must.

Without scribbling or warping the walls of my world, last week’s adjustments to my Finn Factor College Football Power Ratings were successful. Measuring success isn’t always black and white in this profession. Stepping out and fading Clemson and Dabo with a double-digit road dog winning straight up and covering the closing number.

The liabilities that Clemson currently own were not a part of last season’s equation. The fact is that across the previous two to three football seasons at Clemson, personnel additions or lack thereof were being ignored by Dabo’s coaching staff, by myself, too.

Specifically, what we saw last season from a young and inexperienced D.J. Uiagalelei playing in place of the injured Trevor Lawrence was a mirage.

I’m not claiming that the now-Clemson quarterback isn’t capable of duplicating what he did in the 2020 season. I am simply noting that the mirage I write about was Uiagalelei not having the supporting cast that was in place a year ago.

The Clemson offensive line has been ineffective in both run and passing schemes. Most important and glaring is just how many of us took for granted what running back Travis Etienne meant to the success of the offense in his Tigers tenure.

I believe that the bookmakers have yet to make the necessary adjustments to value the Tigers today accurately. We can all worry about tomorrow … tomorrow.

I am from the school of thought that believes significant value and reward support Boston College on Saturdays. The BC 14-plus points for Saturday’s game are attractive and enticing.

Pitt -3 at Georgia Tech: The Panthers showed themselves right out of the 2021 starting gate. They did so with a 44-point win over the Minutemen of UMass. In truth, the 44 points better than UMass in the season-opener shows how far the program has come under Pat Narduzzi. I am confident that how far the Panthers have come isn’t as far as the Panthers and the coaches will go to get to the goals they have set for this team.

Pitt’s seven-point road win over the Vols in Tennessee was impressive despite the transfer portal desertions Tennessee suffered this offseason. After a poor showing by the Pittsburgh defense in a coin-flip-final against Western Michigan, the Panthers found themselves on the wrong side of a 44-41 shootout to the Broncos.

The Panthers and Narduzzi didn’t wait long to show the football world that defense isn’t the only part of football they are capable of. A Narduzzi team, Narduzzi of all coaches, and his players showed no mercy in beating FCS New Hampshire by a 77-7 final.

Pittsburgh’s 52.5 points-per-game average on the season is second only to that of Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss squad. The Rebels sit atop the college football average scoring chart at the top of the 52.7 point mountain top.

To those who have calculated and contemplated whether the Panthers’ points per game will translate in ACC play, I suggest you wait and see what transpires this weekend when Pittsburgh challenges the Georgia Tech defensive secondary. The Yellow Jackets scoring defense is middling when positioned with the rest of the conference. However, the Jackets have surrendered an average of just 170 yards passing per game this season.

Wake Forest -7 vs Louisville: The Cardinals rarely make an entrance without drawing attention. This group of footballers has reason to be proud of their accomplishments. But this Cardinals group lacks the explosive offensive options of years past and is a level above okay by most measures. Louisville isn’t a grouping of players that are not prepared. They are coached up, and when asked to dress and showcase their wares, this group of coaches welcomes the opportunity under the direction of Scott Satterfield and their players.

The program’s lone 2021 loss came in the season-opener when they squared off against one of the top teams in college football, Ole Miss. The Cards have accomplished this season from the teams’ collective grit and being positioned in the right place at the right time against the right opponent.

Louisville has already achieved more than I expected from them this 2021 campaign. As stated in the first part of this Week #5 team and matchup update, the Cards skillset, and pay grade is simply a level, maybe two on a good day, above okay.

Lane Kiffin and his Rebels didn’t just win the scoreboard in the season-opener against the Cards — they dominated the boxscore.

Ole Miss nearly doubled the Cardinals in total yards with the final numbers looking like this; 569 Lane Kiffin yards to Louisville’s 355.

The Rebs passed for 381 yards while Louisville threw for 200.

Ole Miss rushed for 188 yards, and the Cardinals logged 155.

Rebs QB Matt Corral completed 22 of 32 passes, including a 6-yard touchdown to Ontario Drummond. The Ole Miss quarterback also ran 6 yards for a score, while Drummond finished with 177 yards on nine receptions.

Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham ran for two T.D.s and passed for another. Note that Cunningham’s numbers were earned in the second half when Kiffin’s D.C. and staff had softened their defensive stance to avoid a Louisville big play.

Cunningham threw for a total of 17 passing yards in the first half of the Chick-fil-A loss to Kiffin and company.

After performing at a pedestrian level and recording a 12-12 record in Satterfield’s first two seasons, the Cardinals are not expected to be better than in the coaches’ first two tours. The offense managed just 107 yards in the first half against an improved Ole Miss defense.

The Satterfield offense went toe-to-toe with Kiffin’s squad in true Power-5 fashion. The result was as expected. Satterfield’s Cardinals defense threw a dozen different looks at Corral and the Rebs offense, yet not once did Cunningham confuse Kiffin’s cast of characters.

Wake Forest returned the bulk of their 2020 roster and primary contributors from last season’s 22 starters. Coach Clawson and his staff almost always achieve and accomplish more than is expected or projected of them.

The Louisville and Wake Forest matchup isn’t just another Saturday game. The results of this game will have season-long implications on the Atlantic Division.

Those who paid attention to the early line movement saw what happened. The Pros went to the window early Monday and established who they believe is the clear-cut favorite in this game.

Louisville suffered added damage to what I have labeled as an okay club. Reciever Braden Smith was lost for the season to torn knee ligaments.

As noted above, Smith is out, as is linebacker Monty Montgomery (knee), who is expected to miss the rest of the regular season alongside Smith.

As important as Montgomery is to the defense, Smith is more than just a wideout and the team’s go-to receivers over the middle. Smith is a key piece in the special teams’ mix, returning punts and working on the kickoff team.

The average skillset of this Cardinals troupe combined with a pair of key injuries lowers my and most who value special personnel in a matchup like this Saturday ACC contest. The Louisville defense is a game day liability when this group of Cardinal players are facing Power-5 talent — and that is what and who they square off against on Saturday — Satterfield’s stop unit has given up 418.3 yards per game, including 172.8 on the ground, and the metrics of who Louisville is and what this undervalued Wake group will morph the Deacs into not just the Saturday favorite but an overwhelming one.

College Football Daily

The Nittany Lions have revenge on their mind after the Hoosiers sent their season into a tailspin last year. Rob Veno and Tony Finn offer their analysis of Saturday night’s battle in the Big Ten between Penn State and Indiana.

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