Tulane vs Army Predictions - AAC Championship Preview and Picks 12/6/24

The Tulane Green Wave travel to West Point to take on Army for the AAC Championship on Friday December 6, 2024!

With Army hosting their first ever conference championship, can they get the job done against a favored Tulane team? Get free picks for the AAC Championship from The GoldSheet below!

Tulane vs Army Trends and Angles

Tulane went 9-3 against the spread this season with seven of the Green Wave’s 12 games going over the total. Tulane went 5-1 against the spread away from home, including 5-0 ATS as a road favorite.

Recent history suggests that Tulane’s loss to Memphis last week as a 12.5-point favorite might carry into this week.

Teams that lost their regular season finale as a double-digit favorite have gone 5-10 straight-up and against the spread in conference championship games.

Army went 7-4 against the spread this season with six of the Knights’ 11 games going over the total. Army bettors finished the season in a spiral with the Knights covering the spread in only one of their last five games.

Army won all six of its home games this season, with five of those wins coming by 17+ points. This will be Army’s first game as a home ‘dog this year. The Knights are 5-8 against the spread as a home ‘dog under head coach Jeff Monken.

Over the last 20 years, there have been ten conference championship games played with a gametime temperature below 32 degrees. The under is 7-3 in those contests.

Tulane vs Army Analysis

This is Tulane’s third-straight AAC Title Game appearance, but the Green Wave’s first away from home. Tulane went 1-1 straight-up and against the spread in the pair at home.

The home team had won each of the previous six AAC Championship Games prior to Tulane’s home loss to Memphis last season.

Dating back to his time at Troy, Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has faced either Army or Navy in each of the last three seasons. Sumrall’s defenses have allowed a total of nine points in those three games.

If this game was being played anywhere in the southern half of the United States, we would probably be looking to lay the points with Tulane.

But it’s not, and early forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-to-uppers 20s on Friday in West Point. Tulane’s six road games this season were played in Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama, Texas, North Carolina and Maryland.

Obviously this is not an apples-to-apples comparison, but Tulane played outdoors last December in the Mid-Atlantic for a bowl game against Virginia Tech. Tulane lost by three touchdowns and was out-gained by 201 yards. Different year. Different coach. Different team.

Tulane vs Army Prediction

The point still remains that this is not a program that plays in 27-degree weather very often. Sumrall obviously has a pretty good feel for slowing down the option attack based on what his teams have done over the last three seasons.

We’re not sure Tulane’s offense will thaw out enough to get this final score over the total.

Tulane vs Army Prediction: Under 45.5

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