UCF at Tulane AAC Championship Picks and Predictions December 3

UCF at Tulane Betting Preview

Saturday’s AAC Championship between Tulane and UCF features two teams that have major question marks heading into the postseason. Who will be lining up at quarterback for the Knights, and who will be on the sidelines for the Green Wave? The college football handicapping team from The GoldSheet shares their thoughts on Saturday’s AAC showdown.

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UCF at Tulane Betting Odds

Saturday, December 3	AAC Championship Betting Notes
Point Spread:	UCF Knights +3 at Tulane Green Wave
Total:	o/u 58 Points
Location:	Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana
Game Time:	4:00pm ET / 1:00pm PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
TV:	ABC

UCF at Tulane Betting Analysis

Tulane has been the model of consistency in the AAC this season, but head coach Willie Fritz may have one foot out the door. Fritz has interviewed with Georgia Tech, and according to reports on Monday night, is negotiating to be the next head coach of the Yellow Jackets.

Tulane Takes Home Field Advantage

The 62-year-old Fritz inherited a 3-9 Tulane team in 2016 and has since led the Green Wave to three bowl games (fourth upcoming this year) and a shot at a conference title. How will Tulane’s squad react to Fritz’s wandering eyes?

Tulane clinched home field advantage for Saturday’s contest by beating Cincinnati 27-24 last week. The Green Wave won just about every statistical category over the Bearcats, holding an advantage in yards, first downs, turnovers and time of possession.

Knights Almost Cough Up Championship Game

On the other side, UCF remains an enigma for most bettors. The Knights blew a 28-point lead last week and were trailing South Florida in the fourth quarter before QB Mikey Keene found Alec Holler for the game winner with 20 seconds remaining.

Most of the Knights’ inconsistency this season stems from the QB roulette they’ve played between Keene and John Rhys Plumlee. The mobile Plumlee started last week’s game against USF 9-for-9 passing with over 100 rushing yards before injuring his hamstring. Plumlee and Keene have been rotating in-and-out of the lineup over the last two months.

Plumlee played the whole game when the Knights knocked off the Green Wave three weeks ago, but his status is unknown for this weekend.

Turnovers and time of possession were the two keys to that Knights’ win on Nov. 12. UCF won the turnover battle 2-0 and ran 18 more plays than the Green Wave while holding a ten-minute advantage in time of possession.

UCF at Tulane Prediction

In that mid-November meeting, Tulane closed as a 1-point home favorite with the total at 54.5 points. They scored 69 in that game. Oddsmakers have bumped this one up to 58, but it still might not be high enough.

UCF’s offense is top-25 in the country, generating 6.2 yards per play. Tulane’s offense isn’t very far behind at 5.8 yards per play.

That first meeting saw 859 yards of offense and 49 first downs. Early forecasts are calling for good weather in New Orleans on Saturday, so weather shouldn’t be a concern.

In our opinion, you probably want to see where the dust settles with Fritz in Atlanta and Plumlee’s hamstring before getting too involved in this one.

The over is certainly attractive after seeing how the first meeting went. Getting +3 with the Knights may also hold some value if Fritz is indeed heading out the door.

Prediction: Over 58 Points Scored

Happy Hour CFB Kickoff Show

Join a panel of WagerTalk college football handicappers for the Happy Hour CFB Kickoff Show as we break down this week’s college football betting slate from a variety of handicapping angles.

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