UCF Football Predictions, Best Bets, Wins Total, Expert College Football Handicapper Tips

UCF Football Betting Predictions 2023:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down UCF’s chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on UCF in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for UCF football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on BYU this season.

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UCF Knights Football Preview 2023: UCF Best Bets, Expert Picks

UCF has one of the largest student enrollments in the country.  The Knights parlayed that, along with a string of good to great football to earn a seat at the Power Five table. 

The conference itself was proactive, adding the Florida TV market and recruiting base to their league, putting an end to rumors of their demise.  While acclimation into the conference can be challenging for any school, the long-range prognosis might be very good in this case.

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UCF Football Predictions: Strengths, Weaknesses, Improvements, Declines

9-3 was “nice” but that record included losses to Navy and East Carolina, and in fact all three losses were when favored.  Their one “upset” win was at +1.5 points to Tulane, who extracted revenge in the title game.  UCF finished 9-5 after losing their bowl game to Duke. 

Still treated like a newcomer, both coordinators left for better jobs (North Carolina and Arkansas).  QB Plumtree returns after battling injuries last year.  When healthy, he fits this scheme just fine.  Moving to the Big 12 means tougher competition, but I expect UCF to be a solid running team, as long as their QB stays healthy (5.0).  The OL allowed 30 sacks a year ago and that’s an area to monitor. 

The point defense was over 30 allowed per game after week six.  The run defense was to blame, as it went sky high in these last eight games.  They come into this season with enough returning experience up front to make progress, but need a better pass rush in order to mask a secondary that looks weaker than it was in 2022.  I’ll chart defensive pressure carefully.  Kicking was fixed, big-time last year and the kicker returns.

University of Central Football Schedule: Which Games Will They Win? :

I’m interested in UCF’s game at Boise on 9/9.  These teams have had similar group of five profiles.  It’s probably more of a big deal to focus on UCF’s 1^st Big 12 conference home game (9/30, Baylor) then their 1^st road game, which is 9/23 at K St. 

I expect a sellout for the Baylor game, and as usual, I’ll be charting any letdown possibilities based on score and late game emotion before they head to Kansas on 10/7.  Based on recent pedigree I don’t think we’ll see UCF back down or be awed by traveling to Oklahoma, and certainly not in a host of Oklahoma State.  Instead, wins will depend on team health at key positions, plus defensive improvement. 

Two other November games are at Cincy and home to Houston, two teams making the jump with them to the Big 12.  The Cincy series has been quite competitive, but now the Bearcats have roster turnover and a new staff.  The Houston series has been high scoring.

UCF Football Bottom Line: Total Wins Expected Expert Pick

6-6 or 7-5?  I see a few tossup games on the schedule, so the obvious checks are the new coordinators and fixing the DL.  Malzahn has coached in the SEC and can handle the league change, but my take on him is that he’s a good, and not great coach. 

One day (perhaps) UCF’s program will solidify where they won’t lose transfers to “other” Power Five schools.  Right now, the roster doesn’t seem fully formed enough to give UCF a chance to reach the top of the Big 12.

UCF Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

Unlike some handicappers, I don’t like too much change, which the portal and the NIL money have given us.  Add in league change and it could be a challenge to maintain my level of accuracy with this team (9-1 ATS last 10). 

For now, I’ll lean vs. at Kansas if off an emotional high, and lean with a rested UCF at Oklahoma (Sooners also rested).  

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