UNC Football Predictions, Betting Tips & Team Preview 2023: WagerTalk Best Betting Guide

North Carolina Tarheels Football Predictions & Preview 2023:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Heels chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on UNC football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for UNC football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Tarheels this season.

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UNC Football Preview 2023: UNC Picks for Betting

Mack Brown is an above average coach, which might get some pushback considering the fact that they enter 2023 on a four-game losing streak. 

People forget how much talent was lost from 2021.  Are there holes?  Absolutely, especially defensively.  It’s the side of the ball that holds them back from becoming more than just a fringe top 20 team.

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UNC Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH

Let’s begin with the defense.  Is Gene Chizik the answer? 

Only Virginia Tech was held below 21 points last year.  The run defense remained poor (4.7-171) and the pass defense was worse, coming in at 65%. 

I’m optimistic, giving them a run defense projection of 4.35 per carry.  The defense produced just 16 (regular season) sacks, and for a program of this stature, that is an issue.  I’ll char sack prowess early and often.  A change has been made with a new secondary coach. 

Charting the pass defense percentagfe will be my 2^nd watch area.  QB Derrick Maye burst on the scene and now is expected to be a top five NFL pick in the 2024 draft.  He’ll have a new coordinator, but I expect this transition to be relatively seamless.  The 3^rd watch area for me is clearly OL pass protection.  N Car allowed 38 sacks a year ago and has had previous issues in this area.  The run game regressed from 5.5 to 4.45 last year (per carry). 

I projected 4.9, so they didn’t hit my figure.  I’m a bit lower now.  The WR unit will likely be a bit down from 2022.  Kicking was acceptable last year but competition has been added.  UNC played nine one-score games last year, with seven of them decided by three points or less.  No lead is safe in their games.

UNC 2023 Predictions, Tarheels Schedule:

The season opens with a good one in neutral Charlotte vs. South Carolina. 

They last played in the 2021 Mayo Bowl, where the Gamecocks “stunned” the Tar Heels (best bet winner) 38-21 as a double-digit dog. 

Overall, games 1-6 are all highly competitive.  UNC survived, 63-61 at App St last year.  The rematch is at home.  Minnesota is always competitive.  That should be fun.  UNC has found ways to beat Pittsburgh routinely at home, but this time they travel to Pitt, where every game has been close. 

Literally, any of these games could be won or lost.  I like the bye week placement, and they get a solid scheduling edge hosting Syracuse after that.  Want more close games?  Not counting Covid, 2020, the last three vs. Miami have been decided by exactly three points. 

Games 7-10 are home to Virginia, at GT, home to Campbell and home to Duke.  Georgia Tech is dangerous at home in this series.  The Duke series is another that is usually decided late.  UNC closes with tough road games at Clemson (title game loss 39-10 last year) and at NC State (decent history at, but what if they lose at Clemson, ending ACC title game hopes?).

UNC Football Bottom Line:

UNC started 8-1 in 2022 but based on the stat sheet, that was a false record, as they were 6-0 in close games to that point, with less than stellar defensive numbers. 

With more close games expected in 2023, I’ll be watching defensive numbers closely as well as how the OL performs in pass protection. 

This has to be a no excuse season for their DL, and for ramping up defensive pressure.  A 4-1 start is possible before hosting Miami as long as there’s even partial improvement in these key areas.  That gives me a doable 7-2 before they host Duke. 

I’ll call this a tenuous 8-4.  Mack Brown teams tend to keep games close.  Defensive improvement could give this team a shot at returning to the ACC title game but the margin for error is awfully slim.

UNC Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

The “safest” tip I can give is to look dog +3 or more in perceived close games.  I do have a lean with UNC in the opener but after that I will rely on my keys to find value in the underdog.  Watch their defensive numbers closely..  

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