UNLV vs Boise State Predictions – Mountain West Championship Preview and Picks 12/6/24
The UNLV Rebels travel to Boise to take on Boise State for the Mountain West Championship on Friday December 6, 2024!
With a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line, who will prevail on the blue turf in Boise? Get free picks for the Mountain West Championship from The GoldSheet below!
UNLV vs Boise State Trends and Angles
Boise State has won each of the last eight meetings, including a 29-24 road win in Las Vegas in October and a 44-20 road win in last year’s Mountain West Championship Game.
The Broncos have covered the number in each of the last three meetings, but all three of those games were in Sin City.
The road team has covered the number in each of the last six meetings. Teams that won the regular season matchup have gone 29-18 straight-up in conference championship rematches since 2010.
This note would also apply to Conference USA (Western Kentucky won the regular season meeting), the MAC (Miami beat Ohio) and SEC (Georgia beat Texas).
UNLV won all six of its road games this season, going 4-2 against the number including 2-0 as a road ‘dog.
Boise State went 6-0 straight-up at home this season, winning five of those six games by double digits. This is Boise State’s seventh trip to the Mountain West Championship Game in the last eight years.
The Broncos have gone 1-5 against the spread in the previous six, with the lone win coming against the Rebels last year.
UNLV vs Boise State Analysis
This is an interesting matchup between current form vs series history. Current form suggests that Boise State may be in some trouble.
The Broncos have largely been going through the motions in recent weeks, beating Nevada by seven as a 22.5-point favorite and beating Wyoming by four as a 22.5-point favorite.
In last week’s home win over Oregon State, the Broncos jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, but didn’t really do anything after that.
Maddux Madsen scored a touchdown in the final minute of the game to make the final score look a little better than the flow of the game would indicate. But in terms of the series history, Boise State’s recent success in this matchup is hard to ignore.
The Broncos closed as a 2.5-point road favorite at UNLV in last year’s title game and they closed as a four-point road favorite in Las Vegas in late October.
Boise State is now playing at home with a very strong home field advantage against a team that plays in a dome, and the Broncos are “only” laying four points. Is the downgrade justified?
UNLV quarterback Hajj Milik Williams took the Mountain West by storm when he took over as the Rebels’ starter, but he’s slowed down a little bit in recent weeks.
UNLV played in some nasty weather at San Jose State a couple weeks ago, and Williams only went 11-for-20 with 131 passing yards and an interception.
The conditions in Boise are going to present a challenge. Williams went 12-for-21 with 179 passing yards and an interception at home against the Broncos’ defense six weeks ago.
UNLV vs Boise State Prediction
Our power ratings are right on the number in this matchup so we do not see a lot of value, but Boise State’s history in this matchup is hard to ignore.
Based on the closing spread of the last two matchups, you may be getting the Broncos on a post-Thanksgiving discount.
UNLV vs Boise State Prediction: Boise State -4
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