Utah vs UCLA Pac-12 Picks and Predictions

Utah vs UCLA Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Utah vs UCLA Pac-12 Football betting preview for Saturday, October 30 from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah. At the time of posting, the Utes are a -6.5 home favorite over the Bruins with the total sitting at 60.5 points.

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Utah vs UCLA Predictions

Utah Utes -6.5 vs UCLA Bruins
Total: 60.5 Points

UCLA Bruins head coach Chip Kelly failed to earn a victory over his former employer, the Oregon Ducks. It was his third attempt at taking down the tradition-rich Pac-12 program. Despite a third loss of the season, the Bruins are still alive in the Pac-12 title chase. UCLA’s opponent and host on Saturday night, Utah, is chasing the conference title, and by any measure, this matchup is one of the more important league contests of 2021 college football Week 9.

Salt Lake City is the face of the important conference tilt and finale of College Football’s Halloween weekend. Utah has punked the Westwood troupe … since … forever. The Utes are not in a must-win situation, but rest assured that is their aim and the attitude of the Kyle Whittingham squad. Kelly’s Bruins are in for a must-win Pac-12 title affair. Also, UCLA needs help on the less-traveled road to being crowned Pac-12 champs. The Bruins need to win and the Arizona State Sun Devils to lose.

As shameful as surprising coach Kelly’s teams during his tenure at Westwood have yet to be invited to a holiday bowl. UCLA hasn’t bowled since 2017. Utah played back-and-forth with Oregon State last Saturday, with the result being a 42-34 loss to the Beavers in Corvallis.

The Utes were winners in their last event on home grass, Rice-Eccles. After sleep-walking in the first half of their Week, 7 contest against Arizona State things changed dramatically in Salt Lake. The Sun Devils dominated the home team in the first 30 minutes of the mid-October event in SLC. Utah scored on four straight second-half drives. QB Cameron Rising completed 13-of-15 pass attempts post-intermission, bringing his teammates back from a 14-point halftime deficit.

UCLA is 3-0 as a visitor this season with wins in Santa Clara, Tuscon, and, Seattle. While all three are terrific college cities, not one of the three in Salt Lake City, as capable as the Utah Utes when cornered.

UCLA wins when it runs well. It’s 5-0 when getting to 200 yards, and 0-3 when it doesn’t. Utah is 0-3 when allowing 200 rushing yards; 4-0 when it doesn’t, but those four wins were against teams that can’t pound, and get nasty as UCLA can.

Bruins’ quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has yet to be confirmed as the starter on Saturday night. The team has been steadfast in T-Rob being a game-time decision. If Thompson-Robinson is inactive, backup Ethan Garbers will get the nudge.

Thompson-Robinson did not fare well against Utah when he faced the Utes two years ago. He threw for 219 yards in that game but also tossed a pair of interceptions and fumbled twice. It helped Utah run off 49 unanswered points over four quarters.

UCLA has been perfect this season when the offensive line does their job. The Bruins are 5-0 when the offense records 200 or more yards running the football. The Bruins victories in 2021-22 have all resulted in “Dubs” because the offensive line assisted in opening gaps and holes for the running backs. UCLA has earned victories in all five of their home games when the offense scampers and pounds for 200 yards on the ground.

As the Bruins No. #1 tailback goes, so go the Bruins. Zach Charbonnet has five 100-yard rushing games this season. The UCLA bruiser averages 91.5 rushing yards per game. When the Bruins offensive coaching staff are calling the right plays at the right time, running the ball successfully (200 total rushing yards as a team), the Bruins don’t lose.

The Westwood Warriors are perfect when Charbonnet runs for at least 100 yards. When the Bruins offensive line fails to open holes, cracks are etiquette, and Charbonnet fails to reach the century mark, the Bruins lose.

The Utes defense was not good enough last week against the Beavers rushing attack and the unit princes and repeats that performance in Salt Lake on Saturday night.

The Utes defense struggled top to bottom in Corvallis; the Oregon State tailbacks were the primary contributors to the Beavers, earning the home team an underdog upset.

The Ute’s success this season has been much like that of the Bruins. When Utah is a smooth operator, it is because they are keeping offensive balance by finishing drives with the threat of the run. The UCLA defense has been at its best versus offensive schemes that value the run over the pass. The Bruins have yet to surrender over 200 yards on the ground to any weekend for this season.

The Utes lead the Pac-12 in sacks. The defensive front receives blitz scheme assistance from the inside and outside backers in pressuring the opposing quarterback and taking him off his X.-

To give the Bruins their due note that UCLA is very good defensively and overwhelmingly great against the run. The Bruins front seven and their zone gap assignments prohibit the defensive front from being in the right place at the right time, and the group doesn’t do enough in the opponent’s offensive backfield.

Rising continues to surprise and improve with each passing game. Circa sportsbook opened this Pac-12 late tip After Dark event with Utah as five-point home favorites. Little by little, the number has reached a 6.5-point handicap (at the time this college football preview went to press).

Utah’s top three tight ends — Brant Kuithe, Dalton Kincaid, and Cole Fotheringham — have been an integral part of the Ute offense during Pac-12 play. The trio has combined for 33 receptions, 354 yards, and four touchdowns over the last four games. Kincaid leads the Utes in receiving yards (287)

The more balanced defense with the better pass rush and disruption potential is Utah. The questions marks that surround UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the climb of Rising make Utah not only the obvious play in this west coast contest but one of the stronger late Saturday contests that will continue to get square the closer to kickoff we get.

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— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 29, 2021

Utah vs UCLA Analysis from The GoldSheet

UCLA’s running game was relatively quiet last week in loss to Oregon, and foes appear to be making it a priority to make the Bruins work in that regard, as Chip Kelly’s team is 5-0 when running for more than 200 yards and 0-3 when held under that mark. That plan might have a kink in it for Utah, which yielded 260 yards rushing and 6.3 yards per carry last week in loss at Oregon State and had star LB Devin Lloyd thrown out of the game against the Beavers for targeting. He’ll have to sit out the first half of this game. Utah QB Cam Rising continues to make plays for the Utes, completing 64% of his passes for 1,139 yards. Utah has won and covered four-straight meetings against UCLA, scoring 47.5 points per game in those four while holding the Bruins to 270 yards per game of total offense in the last three meetings.

Utah vs UCLA Video Preview

The Bruins suffered a tough home loss last week against Oregon. Can UCLA bounce back against a tough Utah squad? WagerTalk college football handicappers Kelly Stewart, Adam Trigger and Dave Cokin offer their Utah vs UCLA predictions.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the College Football Week 9 moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages, including this Utah vs UCLA showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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