Vanderbilt Football Predictions, Betting Tips & Team Preview 2023: WagerTalk Best Betting Guide

Vanderbilt Football Predictions & Preview 2023:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down Vanderbilt’s chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on Vanderbilt in 2023.

Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for Vanderbilt football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on Vanderbilt this season.

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Vanderbilt Football Bottom Line:

My best guess? QB play will be consistent, but not game changing, the run game will not be effective vs. the better SEC defenses, the sack pressure will rise, but not enough to make a true difference.

Hopefully, kicking will improve. 5-7 unfortunately looks like the ceiling for me, but any game-by-game consistency could mean better days are still ahead.

Vanderbilt Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

Vanderbilt has had trouble at home vs. the spread, and that has continued with the new staff. If my keys are met or exceeded, I’d still prefer backing them as an overlooked road dog.

If the keys are not being met then I won’t be afraid to again fade them at home. Given the early schedule, fading Vanderbilt when not a rush pick is another good idea (14-8 ATS).

As I always say, don’t (over)react to results on the field, but instead trust the Summer work, and analyze why certain thresholds are either being met or not being met.

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Vanderbilt Football Preview 2023: Vanderbilt Picks for Betting

Not very many people thought Vanderbilt would win five games last year. The season ended with a 56-0 thud at home vs. Tennessee but Vanderbilt enters this season with a bowl game goal in mind. Let’s examine their prospects a bit further.

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Vanderbilt Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH

Vanderbilt had lost 26 in a row in SEC play before surprising Kentucky and Florida late in the year. Part of the reason why they became more competitive came on offense, where the point offense got better.

They went from 3.65 per carry all the way up to 4.7, and QB turnovers were reduced. My concern is that the offense is young.

Their top two RB’s are gone, one by transfer to Kentucky. It’s another sad statement on the state of the college game, but regardless, Vanderbilt’s run-pass balance hinges on a pure frosh RB.

The OL looks decent, but my run projections are back to modest levels (3.95). Conversely, the defense has much more experience. I can say with certainty that the #1 area I will monitor is defense sacks.

Vanderbilt “improved” to 17 last year (23 combined in the previous two seasons), but that number remains too low. They had ten in SEC play.

As a result, the defensive numbers remained poor at 5.45 allowed per carry and 64.4%. My ’23 numbers show only slight improvement, so that’s an area they need to prove me wrong. Some final points: first, Vanderbilt likes QB Swann, but he was 1-5 as a starter last year.

Second, six players left via the portal, with only a four-game starter at DE from Stanford coming in. The portal is not working both ways at this school. Finally, after a dismal kicking performance last year, all eyes will be on true freshman Brock Taylor, who is very highly touted!

Vanderbilt Football 2023 Predictions, Vanderbilt Schedule:

Auburn replaces Alabama on the SEC schedule. Beat UNLV (new coach) at their place and a 3-1 start is possible. I’ll pre-check Vanderbilt’s run game and kicking game (both critical) beforehand.

Seasonal success likely hinges on games 5-6 vs Kentucky and Missouri, and both at home. Vanderbilt upset the Wildcats a year ago and has a 50-50 recent ledger at home.

They lost only by three points at Missouri. Anything less than a split has to be seen as a disappointment for this program. Unless they surprise Ole Miss on the road, Vanderbilt could be facing a three-game losing streak before hosting Auburn.

It may take wins over UNLV and Auburn (no recent games) to reach 5-5. Vanderbilt is in year three with the new staff and has clearly shown progress, but I need to see QB consistency, the threat of a run game, a better pass rush, and kicking improvement before I fully buy in.

Vanderbilt closes with road games at South Carolina (0-7 lately) and Tennessee (terrible history, Vols will have just faced Georgia).

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