Week 6 College Football Recap – Week 7 Betting Lookahead

College Football Betting Recap For Week 6

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Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his college football Week 6 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 7 of college football kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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College Football Week 6: Betting Recap

In this edition, the first section will include my thoughts on each of the Power Five conference races. After that, I’ll take a brief first look at the two games that could have a profound impact on who ends at the top of the conference standings.

THE POWER 5 CONFERENCE RACES

We’re about halfway into the season, and it’s time to take a look at how the conference races are shaping up. Here’s my take as to who will end up in the various conference title games.

ACC Championship Lookahead

The Favorite: Florida State
Contenders: Louisville, North Carolina
Longshots: Duke, Clemson, Miami

ANALYSIS: It would be a shock if Florida State is not in the ACC title game. They’ve had two major scares thus far, but even one loss gets them in. Louisville avoids Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina.

A rested Pittsburgh team could be dangerous, but after that, the toughest games are home to Duke and at Miami. They get in with just one loss, and maybe even with two?

North Carolina started just as fast a year ago before imploding in November. This defense seems noticeably better.

I have them clearly rated higher than Louisville, but they have home games vs. Miami and Duke, and a few tricky road games, including one at Clemson. Does the schedule keep them out of the title game?

Duke’s Power number is the same as Louisville’s but the schedule is unforgiving. Clemson already has two ACC losses, but if they run the table they likely get in on tiebreakers as long as Louisville loses twice. Miami would have been higher, but not taking a knee last week vs. Georgia Tech left them little margin for error.

BOTTOM LINE: Florida State gets in, but if you find odds on Louisville to get into the title game, there could be value.

Big 12 Championship Lookahead

The Favorite: Oklahoma
Next in Line: Texas
Longshots: Kansas, Kansas State

ANALYSIS: Oklahoma is much improved defensively thus far, and even one loss should still get them into the title game. Texas is likely to join them unless Kansas St runs the table, beating Texas along the way.

Kansas is still a great story, but they already lost to Texas and the defense isn’t good enough. Kansas State still has a chance, but they must beat Texas at their place to have a shot to get in.

BOTTOM LINE: If you can find a place that offers Texas and Oklahoma to rematch in the title game, that would be worth a look.

SEC Championship Lookahead

Odds-On Favorite: Georgia
East Division Longshot: Tennessee
West Division Contenders: Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M

ANALYSIS: Georgia has to go to Tennessee on 11/13. Unfortunately for Tennessee, they already lost in conference play to Florida, and have a tough SEC road schedule ahead. Even a win at Georgia likely won’t be enough.

It’s still a three-horse race in the SEC West, and four if you include Mississippi. A&M’s schedule looks too tough to run the table. If LSU beats Alabama (road game), then at worst the Tigers will need to win in their finale hosting A&M to get in.

Just because Alabama beat A&M doesn’t mean they are guaranteed the West title. The host of Tennessee is tricky, as are games at improved Kentucky and Auburn, where we know the Tigers have had some success in the series. I can’t put Mississippi in the mix because they still must play at Georgia, plus play this week at a rested Auburn in addition to facing two other SEC challenges.

BOTTOM LINE: Georgia should be back, but the West race remains too close to call.

Big Ten Championship Lookahead

East Division Contenders: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
West Division Contenders: Wisconsin, Iowa
Longshot: Nebraska

ANALYSIS: In the East, Michigan is the deserved favorite. The game at Penn State will be tricky, and the game the very next week, also on the road (Maryland) is a bit of a trap with Ohio State next.

Ohio State probably just needs to split games vs. Penn State and at Wisconsin to make the Michigan game a win and in affair.

We’ve seen them stumble at Purdue in the past, but this Purdue team has more flaws than usual. Penn State seems snakebitten when they play Ohio State, but a win in this game would give them a real edge, since they host Michigan.

In the West, it’s Iowa at Wisconsin this week, and the winner will be the big favorite to reach the title game, although strange things seem to happen late in the season in this division.

Iowa has plenty of flaws, but a real nice schedule. A Wisconsin loss to Iowa would be more damaging, as Ohio State comes up on 10/28.

Nebraska has two Big Ten losses but I list them here because they might still control their own destiny. They are deficient in a couple of key metrics, but I can’t completely rule them out.

BOTTOM LINE: The value is not picking Michigan to reach the title game, so if you are a bit of a gambler, I’d try Ohio State or even Penn State to get there, likely with a decent price. I’ll say more about Iowa at Wisconsin below.

Pac 12 Championship Lookahead

Contenders: Oregon, Washington, USC
Others with a chance: OSU, UCLA
Spoilers: Utah, Washington State

ANALYSIS: I have Oregon and Washington as my top two teams in the PAC 12, ahead of USC. A win here, and a split of games at Utah and home to USC gets Oregon in the title game.

I feel a loss to Oregon would more severely damage Washington’s title hopes, as they have to go to USC and to Oregon State, and the Beavers will be dangerous in that spot.

USC gets to host a wounded Utah squad, but the Trojans have to fix defensive woes. Their final three games are home to Washington, at Oregon and home to UCLA.

OSU and UCLA play each other this week, with the loser likely out of contention. I love UCLA’s closing schedule, so a win in Corvallis could set up a play in game at USC.

I show the Beavers as the more likely winner however. As for OSU, the game at Oregon to close the season would likely knock them out (revenge, and animosity between these two schools for sure) if they were to still be in the chase.

Despite being well-coached, Utah’s schedule and lack of healthy bodies has them playing spoiler only. WSU would need to upset Oregon at their place and then hope they run the table to make the finale at Washington meaningful.

BOTTOM LINE: I think USC needs Washington to lose this week to Oregon. If Oregon wins that game, I think they make the PAC 12 title game.

In that case the second spot is wide open, but USC would get the slight edge. If Washington beats Oregon, they become the team to beat, but that game in Corvallis is tricky. In the PAC 12’s final season, the league has never been better or deeper.

Week 7 Games – Isolating Two That Could Impact Conference Title Hopes

Iowa at Wisconsin: Those that have studied Iowa football for any length of time can do this in their sleep. They play not to lose on offense, and play aggressive on defense, forever winning the turnover battle.

With Wisconsin having a new staff there’s more to decipher, but they remain better at running the ball as opposed to passing to win football games.

After being more of an underdog series, the last two games were won by the favorite. The home team has generally had the edge.

Iowa is healthy again at running back, but I give the Badgers the slight edge overall running the ball. Passing for either team will be an adventure.

At first glance the opening line at Circa (Wisconsin -9) may seem high, but it is aligned with my numbers. With little success passing expected, my lean is Wisconsin, but by less than 9.

Oregon at Washington: Oregon’s offensive stats are quite impressive. I have them at 7.2 yards-per-carry using my formula. Bo Nix is deadly accurate, and they have weapons at RB and WR.

It won’t be easy to run on the Ducks, but there is one caveat. The schedule will heat up from what they’ve faced thus far.

Washington’s schedule is only mildly tougher, with no top 25 teams faced. They are dead on my offensive projections for the season, but the pass defense has been better than expected.

QB Penix has been just as lethal as Nix, and the scheme has been top-notch. In this series, home status hasn’t mattered much.

Circa opened Washington at -2, which is exactly where it should be according to my Power Numbers. My very early feeling is that Oregon has a slight matchup analysis edge. This should be a terrific game to watch.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris.

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