Week 8 College Football Recap - Week 9 Betting Lookahead

College Football Betting Recap For Week 8

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Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his college football Week 8 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 9 of college football kicking off on Tuesday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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College Football Week 8: Betting Recap

In this edition I look at the undefeated and one-loss contenders who have their hopes set on making the college football playoffs.

Undefeated Teams Looking to Make a Case (In order of my Power Number)

Michigan: Michigan ascended to the top of my list about three weeks ago and has not missed a beat all season long. They have allowed 47 points in eight games, and the closest margin of victory has been by 24 points

Remaining schedule and chances: Michigan’s final three games are at Penn State, at Maryland and home to Ohio State. Penn State is a strong home team and at the present time, Michigan will be under a touchdown favorite. The Maryland game is dangerous, with Ohio State next. I have them more likely to finish 11-1 than 12-0, with tiebreakers possibly deciding who plays in the Big Ten title game.

NOTE: The Big Ten still uses a divisional structure, so only one of Michigan, Penn State or Ohio State can get there.

Ohio State: They have not looked as impressive as Michigan, but under coordinator Jim Knowles, the defense is every bit as good. Injuries have hampered the offense.

Remaining schedule and chances: Only two tough games remain. Ohio State travels to Wisconsin this week. The Buckeyes have had their way in the series for over a decade, but the Badgers have some talent on hand. Win that, Ohio State figures to be 11-0 before traveling to Michigan. I give them an 80% shot at reaching 11-0.

Beat Michigan and even with an unlikely Big Ten title game loss, they still could get in. I give them about a 30% chance of getting in if they lose to Michigan and finish 11-1.

Georgia: The two-time defending champs were just hitting their offensive stride when star tight end Brock Bowers went down with an injury. The defense is solid, but not lights-out solid like in 2021 and 2022.

Remaining schedule and chances: Likely double-digit favorites the rest of the way, the schedule still features games vs. improved Florida, one-loss teams Missouri and Mississippi, and Tennessee.

The Tennessee game is on the road. I give them a 30% chance at 12-0, but even at 11-1, a win in the SEC title game (no matter who that opponent will be) gives them a probable ticket to the final four.

Florida State: FSU has had two scares thus far, while also benefitting from Duke missing their QB last week in what was a very close game. FSU is a very powerful and balanced offensive team, but the run defense is not of title caliber.

Remaining schedule and chances: The game at Pittsburgh is after this week’s road game at Wake. The Panthers have occasionally been known to spring an upset. FSU is 4-2 lately hosting Miami Florida, but just 1-5 vs. the spread, plus Miami has one of their best teams this season. FSU closes at Florida, where the run defense will be tested.

11-1 is more likely as opposed to 12-0. If they win the ACC title game, they have a greater than 50% shot to get in at 12-1, but other conferences are stronger rated, and I think a 12-1 PAC 12 team would be rated higher.

Washington: The defense isn’t dominant and the run game is decent, but not spectacular, but QB Penix and the offensive pass scheme is near elite. This is “just” my 9th rated NCAA team.

Remaining schedule and chances: With USC’s loss, Washington could get into the all-important PAC 12 title game even at 11-1.

The toughest remaining games are at USC (60% win chance based on my matchup metrics), home to well-coached Utah (usually good, but Washington has had issues the week after facing USC) and at Oregon State (completely dead even game).

I see them at 11-1, and maybe even 10-2. If they are 11-1 and rematch with Oregon, I think the winner of that game has an excellent shot to reach the final four (90%).

Oklahoma: Buoyed by a +10 turnover ratio, Oklahoma managed to win a thriller vs. Texas (+3 turnover ratio) and vs. offensively powerful UCF just last week. How good are they? That’s still up in the air.

Remaining schedule and chances: The Sooners are 10th in line via my Power Numbers, but the remaining schedule is favorable.

There are no “easy” games, but Oklahoma will be favored at or near double digits in all of them. I give them a 35% chance to run the table, where they may rematch with Texas. In fact, they likely make the title game even at 11-1.

I give them a less than 50% chance at making the playoffs, but with Texas having a key injury (see below) that number could be low.

Four Teams With One Loss Still Contending For CFB Playoff

With apologies to one loss teams Oregon State, Utah, Mississippi, Missouri, Louisville and North Carolina, the following four teams have the best opportunity to make a case to be included in the four-team playoffs (in Power Rating order).

Penn State: Penn State is my 4th highest rated team, but they just can’t get any win traction when they play Ohio State. This is a fantastic defense, but the QB was exposed in his first big road game, and James Franklin has had trouble in matchups vs. the very best NCAA teams.

Remaining schedule and chances: One more loss and they are out of the race, as would be the case for all four of these teams. The big game is home to Michigan. That’s a dead even affair (at home) historically, but given Michigan’s defense, a win hinges on Penn State continuing its turnover dominance (+11).

The only path to the playoffs for this team is to run the table, AND qualify for the Big Ten title game and win it. They may be left out of the Big Ten title game at 11-1 depending on how the tiebreakers play out.

Texas: Texas was somewhat unlucky to lose to Oklahoma, but all their goals remain in front of them. Unfortunately, QB Ewers will miss some time, and Texas will miss his deadly accuracy. This defense is pretty good, and needs to stay that way.

Remaining schedule and chances: Prior to the Ewers injury I gave them an 80% chance to reach the title game, and another 60-65% chance to avenge their loss to Oklahoma.

That would have given them a great shot at making the playoffs. Now this is tricky. Kansas State has to come to Texas, but they rate a 35% win shot at the present time.

Next is a tricky game at TCU, but that defense is not playing well. The other tough game is at Iowa State, and the Cyclones have been good at home in this series.

Can they reach 11-1? I give them about a 40-50% shot now, so like Penn State, the odds of reaching the final four are not in their favor. Still, just like Penn State, they have the Power Number to overcome these obstacles and win out.

Alabama: The comeback win vs. Tennessee reinforces that you can never count Alabama out. On paper this is their weakest team in a long time, especially when it comes to running the ball and protecting their QB. The defense is sound, and is of playoff caliber.

Remaining schedule and chances: LSU’s offense will be a massive test. One would think Alabama could have an even bigger advantage vs. LSU’s defense, but the run game has to improve. Both teams will be rested. Even with that win, Alabama may not reach 11-1. Kentucky at home is going to be fired up, and going to Auburn has never been easy.

I think 10-2 and no playoffs is the most likely result. Maybe they get to 11-1, but Georgia still awaits.

Oregon: Oregon has only itself to blame for losing to Washington. I noted before that game that a win vs. the Huskies would all but ensure 11-1 or even 12-0, and if that was the case, then a PAC 12 title game win would get them to the playoffs.

Now there is no margin for error. This team has the nation’s top run-pass balance, and a sneaky good defense. The kicking game is average and some coaching decisions could have been better.

Remaining schedule and chances: Oregon has more talent compared to Utah, but Utah has perhaps the NCAA’s top coach. I give the Ducks a 70% chance there, and a 60% chance at USC.

Beware of the game at ASU. The Sun Devils have turnover issues but the defense is better than people think. Having “bitter” revenge hosting OSU likely gets them that win.

Bottom line: I have Oregon rated higher than Washington and a legit final four team, but it may not be easy navigating the remaining regular season schedule.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and to find my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris on Tuesday and Jeff Dawson on Friday, where I discuss NCAA content as well as NFL content.

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