Week 9 College Football Recap – Week 10 Betting Lookahead

College Football Betting Recap For Week 9

Before You Read the College Football Recap… Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks – including CFB Picks

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his college football Week 9 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 10 of college football kicking off on Tuesday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

You get free college football picks from WagerTalk all season long!

College Football Week 9: Betting Recap

In this edition I briefly look back at last week’s action with a few notes to share, and then I take a first look at three games on the schedule for November 3rd.

Arizona State has quietly played better defense than given credit for, and finally people are beginning to take notice. They ran wild in their “upset” of Washington State last week, and after previously topping out at 24 points, put up 38 on the scoreboard.

Turnovers have killed this team, but also gave us some inflated lines that masked how “live” they were via the spread. They’ve covered five games in a row despite only winning the turnover battle once, and for the season they are -9 in turnover margin.

They won’t make it to a bowl in 2023, but you might want to circle the game on 11/18 on your calendar. They host Oregon that week, and after holding Washington to 15 points in a road game, this could be interesting.

Clemson, fresh off a tough overtime loss to Miami, traveled to North Carolina State with virtually nothing left to play for. That loss was more than expected, and it now puts the Tigers at 4-4, and 2-4 in the ACC.

Up next is Notre Dame (see below). One thing is for sure: The Tigers need to take a long look at using the transfer portal after this season ends. Dabo Swinney has been steadfastly against adding portal talent in the past but recruiting has changed, and the Tigers will have to adapt.

Quietly, Northwestern is 4-0, and 3-1 in games decided by six points or fewer. This was ugly in July when the school fired Pat Fitzgerald over allegations of abuse within the program. Interim coach David Braun has outperformed all expectations.

It’s not inconceivable that the Wildcats could win six games and become bowl eligible. The stat sheet would have them at 1-7, but you can’t always measure the heart of a program. Their win last week hosting Maryland was legit.

Pittsburgh is 2-6, and just got destroyed by Notre Dame by the score of 58-7. Coach Narduzzi said the following after the game: “We lost a lot of good players last year. We thought we’d replace them and we obviously didn’t do a good job with that.”

While Narduzzi went into damage control after that, the original message did not sit right with former players, and likely irritated many of his current players. This could get ugly, so stay tuned.

Syracuse is 4-4, having lost their last four games. They have been outscored 150-34, and return home after a highly disappointing three-game road stretch. Last week they lost 38-10 at Virginia Tech, so morale will not be high.

My advice: Read the local papers and listen to the locker room chatter as it relates to this program. The November schedule features four teams that grade out very similar to this one. Coaching jobs are on the line.

UCLA beat Colorado last week 28-16, failing to cover the spread. A closer look reveals just how dominate they were in that game. They had more than double the yardage (487-242), committed four turnovers (Colorado went turnover free), and missed a 24-yard field goal (UCLA was favored by 14.5, so that alone would have been enough to cover).

Colorado scored with just over two minutes left to make the final score look respectable. If the Bruins can fix its kicking game (six for eleven) and play smarter football then they have a chance to run the table and finish 10-2. At worst, I think 9-3 is solidly within reach.

First Look at Three Games for Week 10 (Nov 3rd)

Notre Dame vs Clemson

Once thought to be a game with playoff implications, Saturday’s battle is of far less importance, but can still be a measuring stick for how close Notre Dame is to returning to national prominence on the field of play.

We know what both teams can do defensively. Can Notre Dame’s offense make a statement offensively vs. a still solid Clemson defense:

Early Keys: It may surprise some people, but the Irish have actually scored 41 or more points in six of their eight games.

Still, the stat sheet is only slightly in their favor. I show the odds as being right where it should be. The biggest key to this game is how a “distracted” Clemson plays in the first quarter.

Get behind vs. the Irish and the Tigers may not have the type of offense or scheme to make this a game. If they can stay at least equal with the Irish into the 2nd quarter then we might see a fight to the finish.

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State

They call this bedlam, and for the last time, the two will square off in a Big 12 conference game. Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas last week drastically altered the Big 12 race. Five teams sit at 4-1, and Oklahoma State is one of them after most people felt the Cowboys would not even become bowl eligible.

Early Keys: Oklahoma’s defense has been exposed the last few weeks. They will be tested by a surging Oklahoma State offense that has a RB (Gordon) who ran 25-271 last week and has run for a total of 978 yards in his last five games.

The Cowboys have also had issues defensively, especially vs. the run. Again, my Power Numbers have the odds as correct, but look for the home crowd to be quite vocal in this one as they hope to send the Sooners off to the SEC without a Big 12 title.

Oklahoma State QB Bowman is efficient, but it should be noted that the Cowboys have attempted 24 field goals, so drives have not always ended in touchdowns. Oklahoma’s performance in the red zone while on defense is my early big key to this game.

LSU at Alabama

Both teams had last week off, which has been fairly typical in this series. For LSU, maybe this week off could help fix a defense that has been at times downright awful.

For Alabama, maybe this time off could help them fix offensive line woes. I can’t ever remember an Alabama QB getting sacked so often.

Early Keys: LSU has had a more than decent history playing at Alabama, so that shouldn’t be an issue. What “might” be an issue is LSU’s 32-31 win vs. the Tide a year ago. Nick Saban doesn’t forget these things, and the extra week of preparation certainly doesn’t hurt.

Can Alabama run on LSU’s weaker than usual defense? Running would take the focus away from pass protection woes, but after running 5.9 per carry a year ago (corrected for sacks using my formula), the Tide stands at an unusually low 4.1 per carry right now.

That, and devising a game plan to stop one of the more athletic college QB’s in LSU’s Jayden Daniels are my early keys to this game.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and to find my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris on Tuesday and Jeff Dawson on Friday, where I discuss NCAA content as well as NFL content.

Get GoldSheet for Football Betting Tips All Year and Best Bets Today

The Football GoldSheet newsletter is now available for purchase at WagerTalk! From Week 0, in college football all the way through the Super Bowl, get expert analysis, box score recaps, power ratings and much more from the country’s oldest and most popular sports betting newsletter.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen College Football

WagerTalk’s live college football odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the run spreads, totals and betting percentages for all college football games.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!