Wyoming vs Kent State Picks and Predictions

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Las Vegas Cris, with the assistance of Ron W, offers his Wyoming vs Kent State Famous Idaho Potato Bowl betting preview for Tuesday, December 21. At the time of posting, the Cowboys from the Mountain West have climbed to a 3.5-point favorite over the Golden Flashes from the MAC, with the total sitting at 59.5 points.

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	Wyoming Cowboys -3.5 vs Kent State Golden Flashes
Total:	59.5 Points
Game Time:	3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT on Tuesday, December 21
Stadium:	Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho
TV:	ESPN

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Analysis

Kent State can be fun to watch. Just 7-6, they were still able to play for the MAC title despite putting up some alarming defensive numbers. Wyoming disappointed, going 6-6. They scored 3 points vs. New Mexico as a 20 point favorite, lost by 24 to Hawaii as a 10.5 favorite, and won 24-22 vs. lowly U Conn as a whopping 31 point favorite. Do they really belong in a bowl game?

Kent State Golden Flashes

Speaking of “earning” a bowl bid, Kent State had an overall point ratio of 32.5-35. As expected, they were outscored 108-33 vs. Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland. But it’s not a good sign when you played four MAC teams that became bowl eligible, and in five games (played NIU twice), you went 2-3, with a 184-253 point ratio!

For the season, the rush ratio was 5.3-4.7, the pass D approached 63% and the sack ratio was poor at 20-36. They were helped by a +13 turnover ratio and a solid kicking game (20-25). Veteran QB Crum can put up points, but “only” threw 16 TD passes vs. this competition. I like his ability to tuck and run with the ball and I think that will be on display in this bowl game. Their top two RB’s combined for nearly 1,900 yards, and a hefty yards-per-carry average.

As you will see below, Wyoming is vulnerable to the run. My projections have Crum passing 16-26, and Kent St looking to move the ball on the ground. They do have three capable WR’s when they choose to throw the ball. Wyoming is also run-centric. Kent St will have its hands full defending Wyoming’s rush attack, but maybe they get a partial break vs. the pass.

Wyoming Cowboys

Wyoming played two games this year vs. MAC teams. They won at NIU 50-43 and hosted Ball St and beat them 45-12. Going 2-6 in Mountain West play was completely unexpected. They went 1-4 vs. Mountain West bowl teams, with a 17-24 point ratio.

The Cowboys did not score much in 2021, but their best efforts came when facing teams with suspect run defenses. All stout run defenses held them back. Wyoming ran 4.85 per carry (corrected for sacks using my formula), and that bodes well vs. Kent St’s rush defense. RB Valladay has been a workhorse in his career, but despite his 5.2 yards-per-carry figure, he’s not my favorite RB on this team. RB Swen has cut into his workload, and runs for nearly 6.0 yards-per-carry.

The big question will be the weather. From what I’ve seen, midday temperatures will be in the high 30’s, with a 20% chance of snow. This may sound strange, but Wyoming might prefer good footing for this game to optimize their rush attack.

The Cowboys have used two QB’s over at least the past two seasons. For now, it looks like Levi Williams will get the nod. He’s been more accurate this year, greatly improving his pass %, but is still more dynamic rushing the football. With Kent St having just 20 defensive sacks, and Wyoming allowing just that same number, I feel Williams will not only have a fairly clean pocket, but will also be able to see run lanes open up.

In the pass game, I have him projected to go 15-24, for 205 yards and a TD, but also with one interception. Long gainers are possible in the pass game with Kent likely needed to stack the box. WR Neyor is their leading WR and he averages over 20 yards per reception. This has NOT been one of Wyoming’s best defenses, maybe partly because their stout defensive coordinator left to go to WSU, and is now their new Head Coach. Wyoming’s previous four seasons saw them allowing a composite average of just 3.6 yards-per-carry. This year they allowed 4.6 per carry (all figures corrected for sacks). That clearly gives Kent St an opportunity for run-pass balance.

On the flip side, the pass D% was 57.7%, and it usually is in the low 60’s. They did not face great QB’s often however. Fresno’s QB was 15-28. Boise’s QB was 23-32. These are the two best comparisons’ when charting Kent St QB Crum. Wyoming’s overall sack ratio was 20-20. Their kicker was 9-13, and 0-4 beyond 30 yards. That’s not good. The turnover ratio was -3.

Keys to the Potato Bowl

Kent State MUST control clock, keeping Wyoming’s rush attack off the field. Neither team has mounted much of a sack presence, but Kent St has to be careful as they allowed 36 on the year to mostly inferior competition. Wyoming has been turnover prone. Can Kent St take advantage in this game?

For Wyoming, this comes down 1st to their QB. His run skill set is the dynamic that could make Wyoming tough to defend. If he can hit 1-2 big pass plays, as he has done on occasion, Wyoming can replicate their stout scoring offense vs. MAC competition. Wyoming’s kicking game has been a liability from outside 30 yards. As a run-1st team, they are at a disadvantage if facing 4th and long from anywhere outside Kent St’s 15 yard line.

Finishing drives and winning on the early downs will be critical. The point D has been decent, but Kent St offers at least some run-pass balance, so Wyoming may need to overachieve vs. Kent St’s rush attack.

Potato Bowl Prediction

I like that Wyoming plays much better vs. teams with suspect run defenses, but the overall rush data supports Kent St. Kent St’s non-conference schedule was stronger than Wyoming’s, and balances out the MAC’s lower overall rating as compared with the Mountain West. The eye test says Wyoming can put up 38 points vs. Kent St, but it’s hard to go against the rush data, which has been a perfect 7-0 in Wyoming games for 2021, and is on a 48-20 overall run in their games.

Instead, I’ll have a strong lean with the OVER 58.5, as long as the weather cooperates. With minimal pass rush coming from both sides, and little resistance expected from either rush defense, it will only take a couple of splash pass plays to put the over in play.

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Video Breakdown

WagerTalk college football handicappers Ralph Michaels, Dave Cokin and Teddy Covers offer their Famous Idaho Potato Bowl betting preview.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Stats

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl before diving into this FREE download.

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