2022 Houston Open Predictions and Betting Odds | Nov 10-13
Houston Open Betting Preview
After stops in Bermuda and Mexico, the PGA Tour returns to the States for this weekend’s Cadence Bank Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Club. WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman takes a look at the odds board and dives into some head-to-head matchups and best bets for this weekend’s event.
| Cadence Bank Houston Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | November 10-13, 2022 |
| Where: | Memorial Park Golf Course |
| Defending Champ: | Jason Kokrak (Not in this year’s field) |
| Current Favorite(s): | Scottie Scheffler +550 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel all Four Days |
Mayakoba Recap
Well, it wasn’t a top-10-ranked player in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months that prevailed last week in Mexico, but Russell Henley did rank No. 7 in that category over the previous 12 months so it’s not like he was a longshot.
Still, that trend of Tour winners this calendar year has proven to be a great betting strategy as now 26 of 41 (63%) Tour winners in 2022 have ranked inside the top-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the previous six months including four of seven tournaments this season. Let’s look at who falls into that category this week in Texas…
Houston Open Odds Board
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds)
[#15] Tony Finau +2.24 (+1800) MGM
[#2] Scottie Scheffler +1.91 (+950) FD
[#34] Aaron Wise +1.63 (+2000) FD | MGM
[#65] Taylor Montgomery +1.61 (+2800) B365 | DK | MGM
[#12] Sam Burns +1.48 (+1800) B365 | FD | PB | MGM
[#78] Denny McCarthy +1.20 (+1100) MGM
[#103] Taylor Pendrith +1.06 (+4500) B365
[#72] Emiliano Grillo +1.04 (+5000) DK
[#19] Hideki Matsuyama +1.04 (+4000) MGM
[#79] Andrew Putnam +0.97 (+3000) DK | MGM
Notables
[#63] Maverick McNealy +0.92 (+1800) DK | MGM (4 Straight Top-20s)
[#33] Russell Henley +0.89 (+6600) B365 (Last Week’s Winner)
*(odds shopped from Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet & BetMGM)
Memorial Park Golf Course
Mere days after the Astros claimed the World Series, the golf world embarks on the Houston area for the Houston Open back at Memorial Park Golf Course for the third-straight year. Before we dig into the tournament, it’s worth noting there is no chance at a repeat champion this year as Jason Kokrak has taken his talents to LIV Golf.
Memorial Park is a long par-70 coming in at over 7,400 yards. It is a rare par-70 for the fact that it features three par 5s, but they are not easy as they ranked as the fifth-hardest on the PGA Tour last season. Offsetting that, there are five par 3s this week and a ton of very long par 4s.
In all, seven holes measure over 490 yards as players will face plenty of 200+ yard approach shots this week, so it’s worth taking a look at who excels from that range.
Besides length, rough is thick at Memorial Park and thus scoring is certainly not a birdie-fest like we see in many fall events. The winning scores each of the last two years were 10-under and 13-under. Don’t expect anything much lower than that.
Finally, the weather looks great on Thursday and Friday with temps near 80 degrees and doesn’t seem to give any major advantage to either draw, but rain chances come on the weekend as temperatures plummet to a high of just 54 on Sunday.
The Houston Open Field
The field is certainly top-heavy, led by the world’s No. 2 player Scottie Scheffler, who finished runner-up last season while also firing a 62 this past Sunday in Mexico to climb the leaderboard and finish T3 at Mayakoba. Sam Burns, Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama round out the other top-20 players in the field. But the value this week is if you venture just outside of those guys.
Brendan Steele is the highest-ranked player in this field in terms of greens in regulation from long-iron range that we mentioned above, hitting 58.77-percent from 200+ yards last season which ranked third. Emiliano Grillo ranked fifth in proximity from 200-225 yards out of the fairway.
Nick’s Houston Open Betting Favorites
Outright Winner: Taylor Pendrith +6000 (Bet365)
Pendrith finished last year on a roll with several close calls en route to finishing T13 or better in five of his last six starts. Pendrith ranked No. 12 in Strokes Gained off the tee last season thanks to ranking No. 10 in driving distance which will certainly be an advantage this week. He also finished No. 10 in greens in regulation.
Taylor hasn’t done much in two starts so far this season as his short game has been pretty ugly, but hey, his stat line reads as close as you will find to last year’s winner, Jason Kokrak.
Top-20 Finish: Taylor Montgomery +135 (Bet365)
The numbers are dropping on him each week, and rightly so. The rookie has started his Tour career with five-straight top-20s finishing third, T9, T15, T13 and T10 as he smashes the ball far, ranking No. 25 in driving distance, but can also putt, ranking No. 3 in Strokes Gained putting. His short game has been impressive too as he ranks No. 29 in scrambling.
Obviously being a rookie, Montgomery doesn’t have the course experience, but it certainly hasn’t hurt him so far.
Featured Houston Open Matchup: Emiliano Grillo +100 over Denny McCarthy
Grillo has gotten off to a great start this season making the weekend in all six events he has teed it up including two top-5 finishes. Dating back to last season, that makes it just two missed cuts in his last 17 starts with four top-5 finishes. He has a solid combo of driving distance and accuracy where he ranks No. 15 in this field in Strokes Gained off the tee, which will be an important metric this week.
McCarthy is all about putting. He does not hit it far (No. 165 in driving distance last year), nor does he find enough greens (No. 131 in greens in regulation), but has the flat stick to make up for a ton of mistakes as he finished last year ranked No. 2 in Strokes Gained putting. He did finish 11th here last year, but I can’t imagine his lack of distance or precision combo can produce good results here more often than not.
See you next week at The RSM Classic!
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Golf Betting Tips
As sports betting continues to grow across the globe, few sports have seen a bump in wagering interest quite like golf. The golf betting market used to be simple: Pick the winner of the tournament. But today, bettors are able to tap into a variety of markets: Head-to–head tournament matchups, round-by-round matchups, and over/under round scores. Kelly Stewart sits down with professional bettor Andy Lang and PGA Tour professional Nick Borrman to go over their favorite golf betting tips.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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