2022 Open Championship Predictions and Betting Odds | July 14-17
Open Championship Betting Preview
Tiger is back. Rory is the favorite. Greg Norman isn’t invited. Storylines aplenty heading into the 2022 Open Championship at The Old Course. WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman takes a look at this year’s field with some betting predictions for this week’s action at St. Andrews.
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| 2022 Open Championship | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | July 14-17, 2022 |
| Where: | The Old Course at St Andrews |
| Defending Champ: | Collin Morikawa (at Royal St George’s) |
| Current Favorite(s): | Rory McIlroy +900 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Peacock and USA Network on Thursday and Friday; USA and NBC on Saturday and Sunday |
Scottish Open Recap
Last week, I refused to do anything but follow the pattern that has now correctly picked 15 of 27 Tournament winners in 2022. That led us to Xander Schauffele winning back-to-back starts.
What’s great about links golf is that weather forecasts rarely mean squat and that was certainly the case at the Renaissance Club. Forecasts were calling for rather calm winds (at least by Scotland standards), but the winds caused havoc throughout the week and made for quite an advantage of the Thursday AM – Friday PM draw, an average of over 1.5 shots better.
This week as we move to St. Andrews, winds are once again not expected to be intense, but could easily reach 25 mph at any point throughout the week. Oh, the love of Scotland!
Open Championship Odds Board
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds)
[#2] Rory McIlroy +2.59 (+1000) Bet365
[#1] Scottie Scheffler +2.58 (+1800) Bet365
[#10] Matthew Fitzpatrick +2.26 (+2000) Bet365
[#7] Justin Thomas +2.19 (+2200) Bet365
[#5] Xander Schauffele +2.16 (+1600) Bet365
[#22] Shane Lowry +2.12 (+2200) Bet365/DK
[#13] Will Zalatoris +2.09 (+3000) Bet365/DK
[#4] Patrick Cantlay +1.99 (+2800) Bet365
[#3] Jon Rahm +1.92 (+1800) Bet365
[#14] Hideki Matsuyama +1.88 (+5000) Bet365/DK
Notables
[#6] Cameron Smith +1.77 (+2800) Bet365/DK
[#8] Collin Morikawa +1.22 (+3000) Bet365/DK (+1.61 L3 Months)
[#12] Jordan Spieth +1.23 (+1800) Bet365 (+1.85 L3 Months)
The Open Championship Course & Field
I probably don’t have to go into too much detail on the course. If there is one major track that you know, it’s this one (besides August, of course). The 129-yard wide first fairway (and 18th, too). The famous double greens with a couple of them measuring over 100 yards wide (seven shared greens total). The 112 bunkers scattered throughout the course with of course many of them being pot-bunkers. Then, of course, the biggest story of them all at this championship, mother nature.
But before we get to the weather, let’s talk a little history. We all know this is the 150th anniversary of the Open Championship, but this is also the 30th time that St. Andrews will be hosting. The last time the Old Course was the site of this major was in 2015 and 45 players are in the field that also teed it up that week. The tournament was won by Zach Johnson in a 4-hole playoff which will once again be the format in the event of a tie.
My favorite part of the history of this week is a perhaps a precursor of what’s to come. In 1986, the Masters held the 50th edition of the tournament and I’m pretty sure I don’t have to mention who won that year. Of course, I will, as perhaps plenty of readers weren’t alive at the time, but Jack Nicklaus pulled off a historic comeback at the ripe age of 46. Then in 2000, the US Open was being played for the 100th time and that winner is even more notorious as Tiger Woods prevailed by an unheard of 15 shots with a final score of -12 and Runner-up Ernie Els coming in at +3.
Now, we have No. 150 at St Andrews and if history is any indication, a future hall-of-famer is likely to prevail. Tiger is once again in the field while Phil Mickelson is the next most-decorated contender. Of course, both seem more like a hope-and-a-prayer type player this week.
Then there is tournament-favorite, Rory McIlroy, a 21-time Tour winner with whom the story seems too perfect not to be him. Time will tell, but one way or another, history will be made this week.
Open Championship Forecast
At the US Open we want to see brutal conditions, at Augusta, we want to see all the beauty and not a speck of grass out of place, and at the Open Championship, we want to see 40 mph winds and sideways rain. However, the forecast seems, dare I say it… nice?
St Andrews is probably the most vulnerable Open Championship course by today’s standards, so if that’s the case, this could very easily turn into a putting contest with a winning score well into the mid-teens. But such was the case last week at the Scottish Open, where winds were forecasted to be rather tame.
What we saw is that even if it’s only for a couple of hours, forecasts shouldn’t be trusted in Scotland. The question is, just how strong will the wind be and when will it hit? Betting odds are generally the best on Monday/Tuesday, while the weather forecast will be the most accurate on Wednesday or even Thursday morning. Oh, the dilemma!
Nick’s Betting Favorites
There is little chance I venture outside of the top-10 posted above when looking at the outright winner this week. It’s a major, and as we often see at majors, the best in the world rise to the top over four days. Expect the same once again at St. Andrews.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2000 (bet365) | Top-10 +220 (Bet365/FD)
I stayed off Fitzpatrick at the US Open and what a mistake that was. I won’t do it again at the major that he would have seemed most likely to win. The question is, can he go back-to-back in the majors?
Even with expectations now that much higher on Fitzy, he was once again right in the mix last week at the Scottish Open, finishing T6, which was his fifth Top-10 finish in his last six starts. In 14 starts in 2022, Fitzpatrick does have three MCs, but otherwise has finished inside the Top-20 in all nine other events. When he makes the weekend, he is in contention.
There is little weakness in Fitzpatrick’s game. He ranks inside the top-35 in all six Strokes Gained categories which puts him #2 on Tour in Total Strokes Gained, behind only Rory McIlroy. He ranks #2 in Scoring Average, #3 in SG Tee to Green and #3 in Scrambling which is always an important statistic at a major, especially at the Open Championship.
Justin Thomas +2200 | Top-10 +270 (FD)
Last week I liked Cam Smith (who finished T-10) for similar reasons that I like JT this week, and it’s all about value. I can’t remember the last time we saw JT, who just won the PGA Championship mind you, at odds north of 20-1. Yes, I get it, JT hasn’t played well on links courses including last week at the Scottish Open, nor does he have a good history at the Open Championship with his best finish a T-11, but he is too good and too creative not to figure it out sooner or later. Sometimes the best week to grab someone is when everyone else is dodging that person.
JT ranks No. 3 in Total Strokes Gained, No. 5 in Scoring Average and No. 1 in Birdie Average which there should be plenty of this week. He also ranks No. 11 in Proximity to the Hole, combined with No. 3 in Putting Average per GIR, hence why he is No. 1 in Birdie Average. Finally, he ranks No. 11 in Scrambling which I already mentioned will be important this week.
BEST BET Tiger Woods to Make the Cut -135 (PointsBet)
I Have to do it. Tiger has made the cut at both majors he started this year, at the Masters in his first start back and then at the PGA Championship before he ended up withdrawing prior to the final round. He was clearly struggling to get around the course.
I think it was very smart for him to skip the brutal conditions at the US Open and instead focus on a place he knows very well and of course, has won twice before. After finishing his final round at the Masters, Woods was very quick to commit to this tournament while he offered up no such confidence in his likelihood to start the PGA or the US Open.
Obviously, there isn’t any useful data to look at for recent results for Tiger, but this is a gut feeling play. Jack won the 50th edition of the Masters at the age of 46. Tiger is 46 for the 150th edition of the Open Championship. Enough said.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Open Championship at St Andrews? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Golf Betting Tips
Kelly Stewart sits down with professional bettor Andy Lang and PGA professional Nick Borrman to go over their favorite golf betting tips. How should bettors manage their bankroll for the outright winners market? What should you look for in head-to-head matchups? Nick, Andy and Kelly get you started with everything you need to know on how to bet on golf.
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