2022 PGA Championship Betting Preview and Tournament Odds May 19-22
2022 PGA Championship Prediction and Odds
The last time the PGA Championship was held at Southern Hills in Oklahoma, Tiger Woods walked away with the trophy. How has the course changed in the 15 years since? WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang share their thoughts on this week’s major, including the favorites at the top of the leaderboard and some featured head-to-head matchups.
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| 2022 PGA Championship | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | May 19-22, 2022 |
| Where: | Southern Hills in Tulsa, Oklahoma |
| Defending Champ: | Phil Mickelson (Not Playing this Year) |
| Current Favorite(s): | Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy (+1200 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | ESPN on Thursday and Friday; CBS on Saturday and Sunday |
Byron Nelson Recap
Well, K.H. Lee was nowhere near the rop-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, the trend that has proven to find outright winners this season. But he was the defending champion, so he had plenty of attention around him anyway.
Otherwise, four of the five biggest names in the field all had very good weeks as Matsuyama, Thomas and Schauffele all finished top-10, while Scheffler finished T15. DJ was the only big name that had a rather pedestrian week finishing T59. That was exactly the week those guys were hoping for heading into the PGA this week.
PGA Championship Odds Board
For the second-straight major, one of the biggest headlines this week is who is not playing, and of course that is Phil Mickelson, the defending champion. However, we do get Tiger Woods. After he made the cut at the Masters, will he be able to do the same at Southern Hills and perhaps even challenge for another major victory? Let’s start by looking at who’s hot coming in…
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
[#1] Scottie Scheffler +2.49 (+1200) FD/DK
[#4] Cameron Smith +2.42 (+2500) DK
[#8] Justin Thomas +2.34 (+1700) FD
[#2] Jon Rahm +2.22 (+1200) FD
[#27] Shane Lowry +2.20 (+3100) FD
[#5] Patrick Cantlay +2.06 (+2100) FD
[#7] Rory McIlroy +1.95 (+1600) FD/DK
[#11] Hideki Matsuyama +1.93 (+3200) FD
[#17] Matthew Fitzpatrick +1.87 (+4500) DK
[#6] Viktor Hovland +1.75 (+2500) FD/DK
[#10] Xander Schauffele +1.61 (+2800) FD/DK
Notables
[#8] Jordan Spieth +0.54 (+1800) DK
[#3] Collin Morikawa +1.57 (+1900) FD
[#818] Tiger Woods -0.83 (+7500) FD
The PGA Championship Course and Field
Most people remember Southern Hills as the site of the 2007 PGA Championship in which Tiger Woods won at one of the hottest majors on record as high temperatures reached over 100 degrees on Thursday and Friday.
The par-70 played a little over 7,100 yards that year and because of the heat, it played much shorter as Tiger didn’t hit many drivers all week. This year however, distance will be a bigger factor as the course has been lengthened to play over 7,500 yards this year with both par 5s measuring over 600 yards. Birdie opportunities will be rare and avoiding bogey will be the key, which is the expected norm at any major. Tiger Woods’ victory came at -8 that year, so don’t expect a winning score much, if any, lower than that.
This year in May, temperatures will be much more modest, although the tournament will start with a 90-degree day on Thursday, followed by high 80s on Friday with afternoon T-storms likely, possibly causing a little bit of chaos on the late Friday rounds. The front coming through will yield some cooler temps for the weekend with a high only in the upper 60s on Saturday before finishing in the low 70s on Sunday. Winds will be in play quite a bit on Thursday and Friday as well.
As is with most majors, tee-to-green game will be important this week. Players in the first cut of rough may be able to advance to the green but forget about it in the second or third cut. Of course, hitting greens is always important, but targets will be much smaller than just hitting greens as most have severe slopes that will cause the ball to possibly run off the green. Players will have to be patient and be happy with par. It’s a major, expect it to play like one.
Nick’s Betting Favorites
From Nick Borrman: Stick with the chalk this week. The best players in the world tend to make up most of the leaderboard come Sunday at the majors and the PGA has proven to be a very tough test. Of the last ten editions of the PGA Championship, only Jimmy Walker in 2016 and Phil last year ranked outside the top-21 while also being the only two with odds longer than 35-1. Also worth noting is that other than Phil, no champion has finished worse than T-28 in their previous start which was JT in 2017.
Justin Thomas +1700 (FD) | Top-10 +160 (DK)
I feel like JT is sort of flying under the radar this week. All the talk seems to be around Jordan Spieth or Scottie Scheffler, and rightfully so, but Thomas has been playing as well as anyone tee to green, he just hasn’t notched that victory which has to be coming sooner rather than later.
Thomas hasn’t missed a cut this season and has finished inside the Top-20 in nine of ten stroke play events including a whopping seven Top-10s. He finished T8 at the Masters and is coming off a T5 last week at the Byron Nelson. Both Rory and Koepka have won the PGA in the last ten years after finishing 5th in their previous start.
JT is never given a long number by oddsmakers, but I feel this week he has gotten a ‘slightly’ longer price thanks to a few other guys drawing more attention which gives him some value.
Patrick Cantlay +2100 (FD) | Top-10 +210 (DK)
Admittedly, I’m not super excited about this pick, mainly because Cantlay has let me down too often. But very few guys ride a hot streak quite like him. He proved that last year finishing the season T11, 1st, 1st, to win the Fedex Cup. He then started this year with a 4th, 9th, T4, 2nd burst in four straight starts with a legit chance to win all four tournaments. Now he comes in off a runner-up at the RBC Heritage which he lost in a playoff to Spieth, followed by a win at the Zurich Classic partners event alongside of Xander Schauffele.
A big reason I do like Cantlay is that he has no real weakness in his game. He has positive strokes gained numbers in all five statistical categories and ranks #17 Off the Tee, #17 Around the Green, #18 Tee to Green and #27 Putting while also sitting at #10 in Scoring Average.
BEST BET Shane Lowry Top-20 +140 (Bet365)
If you made this bet in Lowry’s last nine stroke play tournament starts worldwide, you would have won eight times with his only finish outside the Top-20 being a T24. He finished T3 in each of his last two individual starts including the Masters and the RBC Heritage which he had the lead on the back nine on Sunday but made a critical double bogey to blow his chances.
One of my favorite parts about Lowry’s game that should keep him around at a major is his short
game. Avoiding bogey is just as important as making birdies and Lowry is a wizard around the greens ranking #2 in Sand Saves, #2 in Scrambling and #13 in SG Putting. Oh, and there is that other approach stat that could prove important. Lowry ranks #1 on Tour in Proximity to the hole this season.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s PGA Championship? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | PGA Championship Betting Preview
Can Jordan Spieth win his first major since 2017? Can Tiger Woods make the cut in his first appearance since The Masters? On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman share their thoughts on this week’s tournament, including the favorites at the top of the leaderboard and some featured head-to-head matchups.
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