2022 RSM Classic Predictions and Betting Odds | Nov 17-20
RSM Classic Betting Preview
Brian Harman, Tom Hoge, and Jason Day top the odds board heading into the RSM Classic teeing off from Sea Island Golf Club in Saint Simons Island, GA. WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman takes a look at the odds board as a whole while diving into some head-to-head matchups and best bets for this weekend’s event.
| RSM Classic | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | November 17-20, 2022 |
| Where: | Sea Island Golf Club in Saint Simons Island, Georgia |
| Defending Champ: | Talor Gooch |
| Current Favorite(s): | Brian Harman +1600 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel all Four Days |
Houston Open Recap
Finau led wire-to-wire to cash our 3 rd Outright Winner so far this fall season. Finau was on top of our graphic last week as the #1 player over the last six months in Total Strokes Gained. That win makes it 5 of 8 events this fall and an incredible 27 of 42 (64%) PGA Tour events in 2022 that the winner ranked inside the Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the previous six months.
RSM Classic Odds Board
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds)
[#12] Tony Finau +2.59 (+1000) B365 (UPDATE, Finau has withdrawn)
[#65] Taylor Montgomery +1.51 (+2900) FD
[#26] Brian Harman +1.30 (+2500) B365
[#77] Denny McCarthy +1.07 (+3500) FD | DK
[#82] Andrew Putnam +1.00 (+5500) B365
[#36] Tom Hoge +0.99 (+3000) B365
[#75] Matt Kuchar +0.98 (+5000) MGM
[#58] Keith Mitchell +0.97 (+3500) B365
[#57] Scott Stallings +0.93 (+6000) PB
[#30] Seamus Power +0.87 (+2500) DK | MGM
[#63] Jason Day +0.87 (+3000) B365 (+1.46 L3 Months)
Notables
[#94] Matthew Nesmith +0.56 (+5000) MGM (+1.11 L3 Months)
[#96] Joel Dahmen +0.33 (+3500) DK (3 straight Top-16s)
*(odds shopped from Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet & BetMGM)
Sea Island Golf Club
The final stop for the PGA Tour this year is in Georgia at Sea Island Golf Club. This will be the first Tour event this season in which players do not play all 72 holes on one golf course.
Golfers will rotate between the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course on Thursday and Friday before finishing the final 36 on the Seaside Course.
Seaside Course is a par 70 that measures just over 7,000 yards and was ranked as one of the easiest on the PGA Tour last year. Plantation Course is a stock par 72 that played quite a bit different on Thursday and Friday last year due to some wind.
This year though, there doesn’t look to be an advantage of the draw as weather is consistent the first three days with temperatures pushing just 60 degrees and winds 10-15 mph. On Sunday there is a decent chance of rain with winds likely to increase upwards of 20 mph.
The RSM Classic Field
For the second straight week, there is no chance of a repeat champion as another LIV-defect, Talor Gooch, was the winner last year. He joined a list of Mackenzie Hughes, Robert Streb, Kevin Kisner, Tyler Duncan, Austin Cook and Chris Kirk as the most recent winners.
The common denominator between those players is that they are plodders. That’s not to say that distance is a disadvantage this week, but it certainly isn’t needed.
However, in all fairness, the tournament doesn’t draw the biggest names (er, biggest hitters) in the world and often competes on the schedule with the DP World Tour in which big stars like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland compete in. Scores will be much lower than we saw last week in Houston.
Although Finau did win at 16- under (and reached 19-under at one point on Sunday), the final leaderboard showed only three players that reach double-digits under par. Gooch reached 22-under last year and we should expect scores to push that high again this year with plenty of guys chasing.
Nick’s RSM Classic Betting Favorites
Outright Winner: Seamus Power +2500 (DraftKings or BetMGM)
I’ll ride with Seamus Power who sits atop the FedexCup standings. After his win in Bermuda three weeks ago, he followed that up with a T3 in Mexico in what could have very easily been a letdown spot.
He comes in this week rested and ready to improve on his T4 finish last year in which he had a real shot at winning on Sunday.
Power’s putting has been very good this season, ranking #15 which has helped him sit with the 10 th best Birdie Average this season. The winner will need plenty of those this week.
Top-20 Finish: Joel Dahmen +190 (DraftKings)
Dahmen hasn’t had the best success in this event as has hasn’t finished inside the Top-25 in six tries. However, he has been a Top-20 machine so far this season.
He has made the cut in all five starts this fall including two Top-10s among four Top-20s. His Tee to Green game has been very good ranking no worse than #37 in SG Off the Tee, SG Approach, Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation leading to a #11 ranking in SG Tee to
Green.
Featured RSM Classic Matchup: Tom Hoge (-120) over Taylor Montgomery
We finally saw Montgomery finish outside the Top-20 last week in Houston and I’m going to parlay that into a high probability that it happens again. Montgomery has played a lot this season as he has only skipped two events in this his 7 th start.
He seemed to run out of gas last week and fell down the leaderboard quite a bit on the weekend, although granted, scoring conditions did get tough. Hoge had a similar trend going, finishing inside the Top-13 in his first four starts this year before missing the cut in Mexico.
He took last weekend off though as a chance to regroup for this final start. Hoge ranks #3 SG Approach this season, #9 in Greens in Regulation and #24 SG Putting. That’s a good combo in a tournament that will require some low scores. Hoge also has some good mojo from last season where he was in contention before settling for a T4.
See you in two weeks for the unofficial Hero World Challenge!
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Golf Betting Tips
As sports betting continues to grow across the globe, few sports have seen a bump in wagering interest quite like golf. The golf betting market used to be simple: Pick the winner of the tournament. But today, bettors are able to tap into a variety of markets: Head-to–head tournament matchups, round-by-round matchups, and over/under round scores. Kelly Stewart sits down with professional bettor Andy Lang and PGA Tour professional Nick Borrman to go over their favorite golf betting tips.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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