2022 US Open Predictions and Betting Odds June 16-19
US Open Betting Preview
The 2022 US Open tees off on Thursday, and there is no shortage of storylines surrounding this year’s event from The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. No Tiger? No problem. WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang share their thoughts on this week’s event, with featured head-to-head matchups and some longshots that might crack the leaderboard.
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| 2022 US Open | US Open Golf Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | June 16-19, 2022 |
| Where: | The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts |
| Defending Champ: | Jon Rahm (at Torrey Pines in California) |
| Current Favorite(s): | Rory McIlroy (+1000 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Combination of USA Network, NBC and Peacock all four days |
PGA Tour Rewind
Perfect timing for the PGA Tour to have a leaderboard with big names in what ended as a shootout on Sunday as Rory McIlroy posted weekend scores of 65-62 to defend his Canadian Open title. Even better was McIlroy’s dig at LIV Golf’s front-man, Greg Norman, by referencing the fact that he surpassed the Shark with his 21st Tour win.
Rory was, of course, in the top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months heading into last week, which now makes it 14 of 23 Tour winners in 2022 coming from within that tier.
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months:
[#1] Scottie Scheffler +2.59 (+1400) DK
[#3] Rory McIlroy +2.55 (+1100) FD
[#5] Justin Thomas +2.46 (+1200) FD
[#24] Shane Lowry +2.19 (+3500) DK
[#2] Jon Rahm +2.18 (+1400) Bet365
[#6] Cameron Smith +2.13 (+2200) FD
[#18] Matthew Fitzpatrick +2.02 (+3000) DK
[#14] Will Zalatoris +1.99 (+3000) DK
[#4] Patrick Cantlay +1.95 (+2500) Bet365
[#17] Joaquin Niemann +1.83 (+4000) DK
Notables:
[#7] Collin Morikawa +1.14 (+3000) DK
[#8] Viktor Hovland +1.49 (+3500) DK
[#10] Jordan Spieth +1.19 (+2800) DK
[#12] Xander Schauffele +1.78 (+2200) Bet365
[#15] Dustin Johnson +1.05 (+4400) FD
The US Open Course & Field
Who doesn’t look forward to US Open week? Watching the best players in the world struggle to make pars as most of us do every time we tee it up, albeit on courses that are 6,200 yards and setup for a Tour player to shoot 58. But hey, this week does tend to make us feel better about our own game.
The Country Club is a stock par-70, meaning just two par 5s, that plays over 7,200 yards in total length. This will be the fourth time the US Open has been played here with the last coming in 1988, won by Curtis Strange.
Many people remember the first US Open here highlighted by the movie The Greatest Game Ever Played in which amateur caddie Frances Ouimet won. Additionally, perhaps the most famous Ryder Cup in history was played here in 1999 when Justin Leonard sunk a 40-footer to finish off one of the greatest comebacks in history.
The Country Club’s most recent championship was the US Amateur in 2013, which was won by Matthew Fitzpatrick, who for that reason plus his current form, is likely to get a lot of attention this week. The list of players competing in that championship include Corey Conners who lost in the semifinals, Scottie Scheffler in the quarterfinals, Xander Schauffele in the round of 16, Bryson DeChambeau in the round of 32, as well as Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris and Max Homa who didn’t qualify for match play, among of slew of other current Tour players.
The recipe at the US Open is no secret: Keep the ball in the fairway and hit the green. Nobody wants to play out of ridiculous rough.
However, there has been a trend over recent years that is hard to ignore: Distance matters. It’s easy to quickly say to yourself, don’t worry about distance, guys that hit it far tend to be inaccurate and will find too much trouble over the week. But as the courses continue to get harder every year, everyone misses fairways, and it is much easier to hack wedges or short irons and hope to hit the green than it is a 5-iron.
Strength is needed here, just look at the list of most recent winners and try to convince yourself who doesn’t fit the mold as a bomber. Dustin Johnson in 2016, followed by back-to-back Brooks Koepka wins, then Gary Woodland, Bryson DeChambeau and most recently Jon Rahm.
That doesn’t mean throw accuracy out the window by any means. I’m certainly not rushing to the window to bet Cameron Champ, the Tour’s longest hitter because the rest of his game just isn’t good enough. This week will test every aspect of a players game and the winner will have to be sharp with his irons and short game while likely having to rely on his putter to bail him out of some tough situations.
Nick’s Betting Favorites
From Nick Borrman: While most people will rush to find guys that hit the ball straight this week, I’m going to look at driving distance as the ‘silver bullet’ to winning this week. Not by itself, of course, but I don’t think the winner is going to be someone that ranks lower than Top 30 or 40 in distance.
Will Zalatoris +3000 (DK) | Top-10 +330 (DK)
It’s only a matter of time and what way to finally breakthrough for your first PGA Tour win than with a major! Willy Z finished T6 at the Masters, a year after breaking onto the scene with a runner-up in the 2021 Masters then lost in the playoff to Justin Thomas last month at the PGA Championship. Overall, he has finished inside the top-6 in five of his last seven starts.
Everyone knows his struggles on the putting green, but with very small greens this week and his deadly accurate irons, No. 1 in Strokes Gained Approach on the season including No. 6 in Greens in Regulation, he will likely have more chances than most. He also fits the bill as guys that can hammer it off the tee ranking No. 15 in driving distance.
Xander Schauffele +2200 (Bet365) | Top-10 +240 (Bet365)
I haven’t given Schauffele a lot of attention over the last year and for good reason, he has been void of any big wins. He did, however, win with Billy Horschel in the Zurich Classic partner event in April. Since then, he has been quietly solid finishing T5 at the Byron Nelson, T13 at the PGA Championship and T18 most recently at the Memorial.
Looking at his season numbers, there isn’t one that stands off the charts, but he has been very solid. He is No. 9 in Total Strokes Gained; No. 7 in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green; No. 12 in approach; No. 2 in sand saves; and No. 9 in putting average which all leads to No. 7 in scoring average.
But the thing I like about him the most is his results in previous US Open’s. Last five years: T5, T6, T3, 5th, and T7. His game shines the tougher the course becomes.
BEST BET Cameron Young Top-40 -140 (DK)
Brendon Todd delivered for us last week at +110 for a top-40 and this week I’m going with the red-hot rookie Cameron Young. Young’s last round played was an eye-popping 84 on Sunday to finish T60. But before that he had three-straight finishes inside the top-3 including the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo, two very difficult tournaments where the winning score was in the single digits (under par).
He hits it far, No. 7 on Tour this season while also ranking No. 22 in proximity to the hole. His scrambling is okay, ranking No. 40 which will certainly come into play this week while he sits No. 25 in putting average. All of that leads to the No. 10 scoring average on Tour.
He’s ‘Young’ (pun intended) and should be able forget that last round he played at the Memorial and if he does, he likely is in contention come Sunday.
US Open DFS Recommendations
From Andy Lang – Players to Avoid: Brooks Koepka – Mr. US Open has been bad this year. He missed the cut at The Masters, finished 55th at The PGA Championship, he was at a legendary bachelor party and hasn’t shown any signs of winning a major. He sits at 123rd from tee-to-green; 130th in approach; and 159th around the green. Forget his success at previous US Opens this isn’t the same guy.
Cameron Smith – He has 3 finishes in 2022 inside the top-12. He was 48th last week on a course with some similarities to this week. He’s the fifth-highest favorite. If he continues finishing outside the top-12 that’s a disappointment for him. In 2022 before the Masters is was +1.18 putting…Since the Masters he is -.17 putting. He’s over valued.
Dustin Johnson – He finished 8th last week in an exhibition match, before that he finished MC, 59, MC on the PGA Tour. I don’t think he cares about winning, he looked completely checked out last week, I don’t expect much of anything from him this week, I’m looking to fade him and to possible miss the cut.
Players to Target: Davis Riley ($7300) – He finished top-13 in five-straight tournaments.
Harold Varner ($7300) – Eight made cuts in a row. He made the cut at both majors finishing 23rd and 48th and finished 13th last week.
Mito Pereira ($780) – He’s been incredible this year. He has seven-straight finishes inside the top-27, and since the meltdown at the PGA Championship, he’s finished 7th and 13th.
Best Bet: Tommy Fleetwood Top-40
I’m going to play Fleetwood top 40 as he’s been a fantastic bet-on this season. First off, he’s played both majors really well finishing 14th at The Masters and 5th at The PGA Championship. He’s also played in ten tournaments in 2022 on the PGA Tour and finished top 40 in eight of them.
He hasn’t had good success at the last three US Opens, but I don’t think those courses set up well for his game, and this is by far his best year on the PGA Tour. His stats are really good the last three months as he’s 21st in Total Strokes Gained in this field. He’s +.57 putting across that time and +1.16 tee-to-green. He should thrive again and finish inside the top 40.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s US Open? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | US Open Betting Preview
On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman share their thoughts on the 2022 US Open from a betting perspective, including the favorites at the top of the odds board and some featured head-to-head matchups.
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