2024 BMW Championship Free Picks, Predictions August 22-25

2024 BMW Championship Betting Preview- Golf Free Picks

WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang offers his thoughts on the 2024 BMW Championship teeing off from Castle Pines Golf Club in Douglas County, CO. Andy discusses his DraftKings Darlings, golfers to who can trip you up and the course and more surrounding the 2024 BMW Championship starting August 22nd!

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2024 BMW Championship	2024 BMW Championship Betting Notes
When:	August 22-25
Where:	Castle Pines Golf Club in Douglas County, CO
Defending Champ:	Viktor Hovland
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+330 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

2024 BMW Championship Course: Castle Pines Golf Club

This will be the longest course in PGA history as it’s a Par 72 and 8100 yards, but this course is 1.2 miles above sea level so the ball will be flying a long ways off the tee and with approaches so figuring out the distance of the clubs in this high altitude will be key.

There are 10 holes with water in play, but the big thing for me is how many hills are uphill and downhill. There is over 400 feet of elevation that the players have to walk up and down in each round.

The fairways are wide, but the rough is 4 inches thick so missing the fairway will cause big problems. There are some holes with a lot of bunkers surround the greens, but they don’t look to be too deep or difficult for the cream of the crop.

The greens don’t look too tough to figure out, and the Par 5’s are gettable so I think this could be a birdie fest, and I’m going to predict we see a -8 or lower round.

2024 BMW Championship Field

Top 10 Total Strokes Gained Last Three Months

Xander Schauffele 3.24
Scottie Scheffler 3.22
Collin Morikawa 2.46
Hideki Matsuyama 2.20
Tony Finau 2.15
Patrick Cantlay 1.92
Russell Henley 1.89
Correy Conners 1.82
Rory McIlroy 1.82
Aaron Raid 1.78

2024 BMW Championship: Players That Can Trip You Up

Hideki Matsuyama

Last week he was +5.7 strokes gained approach, and an insane +8.2 strokes gained putting. Going into last weeks tournament he was +0.57 strokes gained approach and -0.11 putting.

Maybe he’s hitting his stride late in the year, but last week was so out of the norm for him that I have to believe some kind of regression is coming.

He’s priced as a Top 5 guy, if he plays out of his mind again, this will be a bad prediction, but if he plays like his usual numbers this year he’ll be outside the Top 10.

Viktor Hovland

Hovland had his best performance of the year, but like Hideki I don’t think he keeps it up. Coming into the tournament his average total strokes gained was +0.91, and he was +0.22 putting.

Last week, he was +3.3 putting and +10.7 total strokes gained. I don’t think last week is sustainable for him, I think he struggles.

Nick Dunlap

Dunlap might be a sneaky pick for some as he finished 5th last week, and 1st a few weeks ago, but he also has 3 missed cuts in his last 5 tourneys.

Last week, he made it into the Top 50 to advance to this week, but he talked about how nervous he was and how relieved he was.

It sounds like just making it to the Top 50 was the peak for him, and I see a letdown spot for him. He also hasn’t put together 2 consecutive good tournaments all year.

He has 5 previous finishes of 11th or best, and he finished 80th or missed cut in all of those. I think he struggles this week.

2024 BMW Championship: DraftKings Darlings

Max Greyserman $6300

Greyserman has been a sneaky good value recently, and in a tourney with no cut we know we’re getting 4 rounds out of him, and since July 1, he’s 15th in the field in total strokes gained. That’s better than Tony Finau, Corey Conners and Tommy Fleetwood.

Austin Eckroat $6300

Eckroat hasn’t been great, but the last 2 weeks he finished 18th and 6th so I’ll roll the dice that he can come up with another great performance. His finish last week was better than McIlroy, Morikawa, Aberg, Fleetwood, Conners, Im, Henley, and many more guys priced ahead of him.

Eric Cole $6500

Last years Draftkings Darling of the year is catching fire to end the season after he struggled through most of it. He’s last 7 finishes are 18th, 7th, 31st, 46th, 7th and 6th, and it’s really been the improved putting as he’s +0.70 strokes gained putting the last 2 months.

Rest Of Lineup: Taylor Pendrith $7300, Xander Schauffele $11,100, Scottie Scheffler $12,300

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