3M Open Predictions and Betting Odds | July 21-24
2022 3M Open Betting Preview
Most of the world’s top golfers have elected to take this week off, which means some under-the-radar players may be able to pick up some valuable FedEx Cup points at the 3M Open in Minnesota. WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang take a look at this year’s field with a focus on some featured head-to-head matchups and DFS recommendations.
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| 2022 3M Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | July 21-24, 2022 |
| Where: | TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota |
| Defending Champ: | Cameron Champ |
| Current Favorite(s): | Tony Finau +1100 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; CBS on Saturday and Sunday |
Open Championship Recap
Cam Smith roared back from a four-shot deficit to win the 150th Open Championship at St Andrews. Rory McIlroy seemed destined to win heading into the final round, and he played great (he hit every green!), but just couldn’t make a putt. That final round puts Rory on the wrong side of history as the first person ever to have a 54-hole lead at a major, hit every green in regulation, and not win the tournament. Oy vey.
Cam Smith ranked No. 11 in Total Strokes Gained heading into last week, so although not in the top-10, he still is proof that Strokes Gained is a great tool to help identify outright winners. So, let’s begin there once again…
3M Open Odds Board
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds)
[#14] Hideki Matsuyama +1.48 (+1800) DK
[#17] Tony Finau +1.30 (+1400) PointsBet
[#24] Sungjae Im +1.25 (+1800) Bet365/FD
[#70] Maverick McNealy +1.01 (+2500) Bet365
[#85] Adam Hadwin +0.98 (+2500) PointsBet
[#63] JT Poston +0.86 (+4000) DK
[#78] Davis Riley +0.83 (+2500) PointsBet
[#143] Jason Day +0.78 (+5500) Bet365/DK
[#47] Tom Hoge +0.74 (+10000) Bet365/DK
[#109] Brendan Steele +0.72 (+3500) Bet365/DK
Notables
[#62] Sahith Theegala +0.66 (+2500) DK
[#230] Nick Hardy +0.32 (+4500) DK (+1.43 L3 Months)
[#130] Cameron Champ -0.26 (+6500) DK
The 3M Open Course & Field
An expected weaker field this week coming after a major as the Tour returns to the States for the final three weeks before the FedEx Cup playoffs begin. Most of the best players in the world will be setting their schedule to be fresh for the playoff run while many others still need to earn as many points as they can to battle their win into the playoffs.
This will be the fourth year that TPC Twin Cities hosts the 3M Open. The course is a par-71 measuring a little over 7,400 yards and will play very differently than we saw last week in Scotland, however, expect a similar winning score.
The fairways are tree-lined but an emphasis on accuracy off the tee, while the greens are large and easy to hit. There are a lot of water hazards throughout the course, in play on a total of 13 holes, many of which come into play off the tee, again stressing the importance of hitting the driver well.
Nick’s Betting Favorites
From Nick Borrman: Matthew Wolff, Michael Thompson and Cameron Champ are the three winners here and were all playing well at the time so expect another hot player to prevail this week in Minnesota.
Davis Riley +2500 (PointsBet) | Top-10 +280 (Bet365)
Season-long numbers aren’t the best when looking at the rookie’s numbers this year, but he has really come on as of late. He missed the cut in four of his first seven starts this season but since the calendar has turned to 2022, he has missed the cut in just three of 17 starts.
He really popped on the scene with a runner-up finish at the Valspar Championship in March, then beginning with the Zurich Classic partner event in April, he went on a run of six straight top-13 finishes including the PGA Championship and the Memorial Tournament. Overall, he has now made the cut in eight-straight starts.
Riley does make a lot of birdies, ranking No. 12 this season which is encouraging as the winner this week will have to make plenty of them.
Adam Hadwin +2500 (PointsBet) | Top-10 +250 (Bet365)
Quick short-term memory on Hadwin is that he raced out to the early lead at the US Open just last month and ultimately finished T7, his fifth top-10 of the season and fourth since the Players in March, a run of 11 tournaments.
He sits No. 5 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months thanks to a very strong short game, ranking No. 7 on Tour in Strokes Gained Around the Green this season, and No. 1 in this field.
Finally, Hadwin has a great history at this event, finishing in the top-10 in both starts, finishing T6 last year and T4 in 2019.
BEST BET | Nick Hardy Top-40 -115 (DraftKings)
Nick Hardy is another one of those names you might not have heard of unless you have been watching golf lately. The rookie missed seven cuts in his first 12 starts this season with his best finish a T26. However, since the Zurich Classic partners event, Hardy has been playing very consistently with six-straight cuts made, all of them finishing inside the top-40, including a T14 at the US Open.
Hardy hits a lot of greens, ranking No. 20 on the season and has finally been converting those chances as the main reason for his recent run. He ranks No. 2 in Strokes Gained Putting over the last three months, behind only Brendon Todd, and he also ranks No. 3 in Total Strokes Gained.
Click Here for Andy Lang’s 3M Open DFS preview.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s 3M Open in Minnesota? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Golf Betting Tips
Kelly Stewart sits down with professional bettor Andy Lang and PGA professional Nick Borrman to go over their favorite golf betting tips. How should bettors manage their bankroll for the outright winners market? What should you look for in head-to-head matchups? Nick, Andy and Kelly get you started with everything you need to know on how to bet on golf.
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