Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds March 7-10

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Arnold Palmer Invitational teeing off from Bay Hill Golf Course in Orlando, FL. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Arnold Palmer Invitational starting March 7th!

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Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Notes
When:	March 7-10
Where:	Bay Hill Golf Course in Orlando, FL
Defending Champ:	Kurt Kitayama
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+650 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

This week marks the 4th Signature Event of the season and the second with a cut as the field of 69 will be trimmed to the Top-50, or those within ten shots, after 36 holes. Both the purse and FedEx Cup points are elevated this week, so it’s no wonder this is one of, if not the, best field this season.

Arnold’s signature course presents a tough challenge to the players every year with the winning scored staying in the single digits in three of the last four editions.

The course can stretch nearly 7,500 yards playing to a stock par-72. Rough is long, upwards of three inches, and this winter has been wetter than normal so players will likely find it even thicker than usual.

Fairways around Bay Hill are narrow making finding them more difficult than most tracks as the course routinely ranks in the Top-10 hardest to find the fairway (54%).

That in turn has a major effect on finding the greens, also ranking in the Top-10 difficulty in greens in regulation at (58%).

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With that many errant shots, short game and putting will be crucial for the winner to be able to save shots throughout the four rounds. Adding icing on the “difficulty” cake is the greens are expected to stimp at 13 or longer this week. Yikes.

Because of its length, players will face more than the average number of approach shots from 175 yards or more, so both driving and long iron play will be the other important statistics to look at this week.

That skillset is even more obvious when you look at past winners here that include McIlroy, Scheffler, DeChambeau and of course, the goat, Tiger Woods.

Finally, experience has proven important at Bay Hill as six of the last seven winners have finished inside the Top-15 in a previous edition of the tournament.

Weather looks great on Thursday and Friday before winds kick up on Saturday with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph. Rain looks to be a threat for the finale on Sunday as temperatures drop into the 70s for the daytime high.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Winner: Justin Thomas +3300 (FanDuel or PointsBet)

From Nick Borrman:

I said it before, at odds this high, JT is a must-play. He missed the cut in his last start at the Genesis Invitational, but that snapped a streak of seven straight Top-12 finishes including five Top-6s.

His iron play and his short game have been phenomenal which the latter is likely to be a big factor this week as the greens here are difficult to hit.

The negative for JT is that this is an event his usually doesn’t tee it up at, but given its Signature status, of course he is in the field. He has played here just twice before though he did have a solid finish at T21 last year, which was in the middle of one of his worst years on Tour.

Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood and Cameron Young are all listed at shorter odds than JT this week and with the three of them having a combined one PGA Tour win under their belt, it simply is a head shaker to get JT, a 15-time Tour winner, at a longer number.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top-20 Finish: Adam Scott +165 (DraftKings or PointsBet)

Ho hum. Adam Scott has quietly produced seven straight Top-20 finishes worldwide including each of this three PGA Tour starts this season. He finished T20 at Pebble, T8 at the WM Phoenix Open and T19 in his last start at the Genesis Invitational.

Scott’s ball-striking has been fantastic as he has gained strokes off the tee in 16 of his last 17 measured starts, as well as gaining an average of +1.12 strokes on approach over his last five starts. Throw in that Scott’s sweeping putter stroke is always on point and that is a nice recipe for success.

Scott has a spotty record at this event having played here 11 times over the last 20 years with only three Top-20 finishes. But with this event being Signature status with a field of only 69, his odds are much better to have to beat just two-thirds of the field.

Puerto Rico Open Outright Winner: Ben Silverman +5500 PointsBet

Remember, for those that didn’t qualify for the API, there is an alternate field event at the Puerto Rico Open where you can take some longshot chances on guys like Ben Silverman who was a winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and is coming off back-to-back Top-20 finishes on the PGA Tour at the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic.

Like we previewed a couple weeks ago with Jake Knapp, you are looking for potential in these types of fields as you aren’t going to find a ton of guys with great current form results.

See you next week for the PLAYERS Championship!

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