AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds February 2-5

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am teeing off from Pebble Beach, CA. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, head-to-head matchups and other betting aspects surrounding the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am teeing off February 2nd!

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	February 2-5, 2023
Where:	Pebble Beach Golf Links and others
Defending Champ:	Tom Hoge
Current Favorite:	Matt Fitzpatrick (+1100 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel & CBS

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Viktor Hovland +1.68 (+1200)
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1.55 (+1100)
Tom Hoge +1.41 (+2200)
Andrew Putnam +1.39 (+2800)
Maverick McNealy +1.31 (+2000)
Taylor Moore +0.98 (+3000)
Matt Kuchar +0.87 (+3700)
Will Gordon +0.84 (+7500)
Alex Smalley +0.81 (+5000)
Seamus Power +0.79 (+2200)

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Course and Weather

From Nick Borrman:

The California swing comes to a close this week at a destination on every amateur golfers bucket list, Pebble Beach.

Yet, as it fails to do every year, the tournament does not draw a very strong field. It’s not that the players don’t like playing Pebble Beach, but it’s due to a couple things.

First, like two weeks ago, this is another Pro-Am that is played on three different tracks. There is no doubt it’s hard to focus this week the same as a standard TOUR event having to play with two amateurs in the group that are more-than-likely chopping it around the course.

Add in the fact that this tournament now precedes an Elevated Event, the WM Phoenix Open, and you can see why guys would choose to pass over this tournament.

156 players will tee it up this week and like two weeks ago, each player will get one lap around each of the three tracks Thursday thru Saturday before the cut is made after 54-holes.

Unique to this event is that the cut is made at the Top-60 and ties instead of Top-65, although those that do finish between 61-65 are credited with a cut made, earn money and are awarded FedexCup points. They are tagged as MDF (made cut, did not finish).

Pebble is the only course that features ShotLink data and thus, the only course that measures SG. As the winner will have to play two rounds at Pebble, it’s worth taking most of your notes there. Pebble is one of the shortest courses on TOUR but it has the smallest greens as defense.

Being on the Pacific Ocean doesn’t hurt either as wind can wreak havoc at any given time. Currently, Thursday’s Round 1 looks to be most affected by wind if you are looking for a course rotation advantage as both Spyglass and Monterey are less likely to be affected.

In fact, all three courses are on the shorter side this week as you have to remember, amateurs have to make their way around the tracks as well. Additionally, rough is trimmed to 2” or less for the same accommodations.

The winner this week must have a strong wedge game as many approach shots will be under 150 yards while creativity around Pebble’s small greens will be important as well.

Nick’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Predictions

Pebble is not shy at producing long shot winners including Hoge last year at 60-1. So don’t be shy when it comes to sprinkling a few on some of the bigger numbers out there.

Outright Winner

Maverick McNealy +2000 (DraftKings or BetMGM)

Feels like it’s only a matter of when, not if, Maverick captures his first TOUR title. McNealy has just one missed cut this season which came in his first start at the Fortinet, but since has played the weekend in all seven events including five Top-20s with his worst finish a T31.

McNealy ranks 5th this season in Scoring Average and 7th in Scrambling which could come in handy at Pebble with its tiny greens.

Most notably, McNealy recorded his first runner-up finish here in 2021 and finished 5th in 2020. Hoge connected for his first TOUR win here last year (and we bet on him too!), so why can’t it be Maverick this time around?

Top-20 Finish

Seamus Power +165 (DraftKings)

Power is inside the all-important Top-10 Total SG over the previous six months and has finished in the Top-20 in four of his last five starts including a win in Bermuda in the fall.

He last played on TOUR at the Sentry TOC, finishing T25, his lone finish outside the Top-20 but finished T20 two weeks ago on the DP World Tour in Abu Dhabi.

Power ranks #9 in SG Putting this season and #19 in SG Around the Green which are likely to be two very important metrics this week. He also ranks #28 on approaches from 100-125 yards which he should find himself in plenty.

Most importantly, Power has played in this even five times, so he is used to the bizarre format, and had his best finish last year, finishing T9.

Golfer to Fade

One of the most profitable angles you can take on the PGA TOUR is to fade new daddy’s and that is exactly what Dahmen is after his wife gave birth to their first child, Riggs, just two weeks ago.

The last thing Dahmen has experienced since then is a sense of routine and regularity which is exactly what TOUR pros need.

Dahmen is currently priced at +240 to Miss the Cut and is well worth a shot at that price. Also look to fade him in any H2H Matchup your book is offering this week.

See you next week for the WM Phoenix Open!

Interested in placing a bet on this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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