BMW Championship Predictions and Betting Odds | August 18-21
BMW Championship Betting Preview
Six of the last seven BMW Championships have see the winner shoot better than 20-under-par. With the event heading to Delaware this week, will we see the same result? Join WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang as we break down this week’s BMW Championship field with recommended wagers and DFS lineups.
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| 2022 BMW Championship | FedEx Cup Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | August 18-21, 2022 |
| Where: | Wilmington Country Club in Delaware |
| Defending Champ: | Patrick Cantlay, but at a different course |
| Current Favorite(s): | Rory McIlroy +1000 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; NBC on Saturday and Sunday |
FedEx St Jude Recap
Will Zalatoris finally quieted the haters as he won the FedEx St. Jude in a playoff over Sepp Straka to jump to first in the standings heading into the second playoff event this week. He did so in both classic Zalatoris fashion, leading the field in Strokes Gained tee-to-green, while at the same time shoving it in the faces of all those that doubted his putting, nailing a clutch 7-foot bogey on the third playoff hole. Yes, a bogey to win as both players hit their tee shots in the water (well, technically, Zalatoris hit it onto the rock wall, but he ended up using the drop area anyway).
It really was only a matter of time for Willy Z as he has been flirting with victory since he popped on the scene in last year’s Masters. He ranked No. 11 and we listed him as a “notable” on our top-10 Total Strokes Gained chart that we begin every article with, which is now back-to-back winners coming from the “notables” section following Joohyung ‘Tom’ Kim last week. So as always, let’s begin there…
BMW Championship Odds Board
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds)
[#3] Rory McIlroy +2.67 (+1000) Everywhere
[#1] Scottie Scheffler +2.54 (+1600) Bet365/FD
[#11] Matthew Fitzpatrick +2.20 (+1600) Bet365/FD
[#6] Xander Schauffele +2.10 (+2000) Bet365/BetMGM
[#14] Tony Finau +2.09 (+1600) FD
[#7] Justin Thomas +2.03 (+1600) FD/BetMGM
[#9] Will Zalatoris +1.93 (+1600) Bet365/PointsBet
[#24] Shane Lowry +1.89 (+4000) Bet365/DK
[#5] Jon Rahm +1.84 (+1400) DK/FD
[#4] Patrick Cantlay +1.79 (+1400) Everywhere
Notables
[#17] Cameron Young +1.76 (+2800) Bet365/BetMGM
[#19] Joohyung Kim +0.75 (+3500) DK (+1.58, #13 L3 Months)
[#8] Collin Morikawa +1.46 (+2200) Bet365/PointsBet
The BMW Championship Course & Field
As is the case now or for the last seven years, the BMW Championship will be traveling to a course not seen by most as Wilmington Country Club hosts the second playoff event. The course is long, measuring over 7,500 yards and plays to a par-71.
However, it would seem unlikely that the course should play too difficult, even at the length, as most BMW Championships have been setup for low scoring with the winner’s score at least 20-under par in six of the last seven years, with the exception being in 2020 which played like a US Open.
Because of the length though, nearly half of the holes will play with approach shots of around 200 yards (or more), including the par-3s. Off the tee, the course has a mix of narrow, tree-lined fairways along with wide open ones. Greens are large but have some odd shapes and steep undulations which will put a lot of pressure on hitting the right section of the green.
In terms of the field, we are down to the best 70 golfers of the year with no cut, so there are not many long numbers to be had in terms of odds this week, at least by golfers with a realistic shot to win.
Weather looks picture perfect all week with temperatures in the mid-80s, winds at less than 10 mph and rain not expected to fall at any point throughout the week.
Nick’s BMW Championship Betting Favorites
From Nick Borrman: With so many longer approach shots this week, take an extra look at guys that rank highly in approach from 175-200 yards (Tom Hoge is No. 1, Tony Finau is No. 3) and 200-225 yards (Viktor Hovland is No. 2 and Sungjae Im is No. 3). Of course, don’t venture too far outside of the top-10 Strokes Gained chart though, as that is not a proven tactic to find outright winners.
Cameron Young +2800 (Bet365) | Top-10 +250 (DK)
Zalatoris got his and it feels like it’s only a matter of time for Cam Young to earn his first as well. Considering he has five runner-ups this year including two in his last three starts, you would have to think his time is coming.
Young ranks No. 2 on Tour in Strokes Gained off the tee this season behind only Jon Rahm thanks to ranking No. 4 in distance, which will certainly come in handy this week. He also ranks No. 5 in birdie average and No. 18 in proximity to the hole.
Finally, a rookie’s disadvantage is also negated this week as nobody has real course history here.
Tony Finau +1600 (DK) | Top-10 +140 (DK)
While he won his back-to-back events in less-than-stellar fields, Finau certainly didn’t fade into the distance last week finishing T5 as he tee-to-green game continued to shine, ranjing No. 4 in Strokes Gained on approach and No. 9 in Strokes Gained tee-to-green at the FedEx St. Jude.
It’s hard to argue anyone in better form right now and over the last three months. Finau is No. 2 in Total Strokes Gained, averaging a whopping +2.74 per round, behind only McIlroy’s +2.91.
I already hinted on Tony’s long iron game as he ranks No. 3 on Tour this year in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards. He has also been putting beautifully, averaging +0.62 Strokes Gained putting, which is something that hasn’t been his strong suit. So long as he continues to hit the ball as well as he has, all it will take is a mediocre putting week to have him in contention on Sunday.
BMW Championship Best Bet
Tony Finau +110 over Scottie Scheffler: I already mentioned why to bet on Finau this week, but why fade Scheffler? Well, he has just one top-10 finish in his last six starts, hardly what you would expect to see from the World No. 1 player. He is really struggling with the putter as well, losing strokes in five of his last six and seven of his last nine including his worst of the season last week at the FedEx St. Jude, posting -1.85 Strokes Gained putting.
For a guy riding the wave vs a guy that’s just not, it’s rather straight forward.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s BMW Championship? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | BMW Championship Preview
Much like Cam Smith, Nick Borrman has taken the week off. Followers of the PGA vs LIV saga will hopefully get that joke. Join Andy Lang for an abbreviated version of Tee Time from Vegas as he breaks down this week’s field for the BMW Championship in Delaware.
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