BMW Championship Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds August 22-25

BMW Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the BMW Championship teeing off from Castle Pines Golf Club in Douglas County, CO! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the BMW Championship teeing off on August 22th! And, don’t forget, at WagerTalk you can always find the best NFL bets today updated constantly.

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BMW Championship	BMW Championship Betting Notes
When:	August 22-25
Where:	Castle Pines Golf Club in Douglas County, CO
Defending Champ:	Viktor Hovland
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+330 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

BMW Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

BMW Championship Betting Preview

Just like that the field narrows to only 50 players for the second week of the FedExCup Playoffs. In a rare situation on Tour, Castle Pines presents a truly neutral advantage to all 50 players in the field as the last time the club hosted a Tour event was back in 2006 when The International tournament was a regular stop for 21 straight seasons. This time around though, the course is setting a PGA Tour record.

Topping out at an eye-popping 8,130 yards is just insane to think about, but before we scream about golf ball rollbacks, let’s remember the course is at 6,200 feet of elevation where the air is thinner and the ball travels further, by roughly 10%, or a club-and-a-half.

That has the “playing” yardage of the course at around 7,350 yards at sea level. There is also 400 feet of elevation change around the course so caddies and players will certainly have their hands full trying to figure out their “true” yardages this week.

As an example, the first hole is a par-5 measuring 659 yards, which is the equivalent of 599 yards at sea level. Then there is a 100-foot drop in elevation from tee to green. At 659 yards, it will be reachable in two by most players in this field.

Without past tournament data to look at, it’s hard to predict the exact skillsets needed to win this week, so the standard ball-striking or tee-to-green numbers are probably the best place to start.

The Jack Nicklaus-designed course plays to a stock par-72 and features doglegs, protected greens and plenty of hazards as players try to quickly learn their way around the track.

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I’m putting a premium on driving and approach play while unknown putting surfaces should help level the playing field in that department.

The course will play shorter than its scorecard yardage, but some of that is due to elevation drops where hitting the fairway and getting the run-out is important. Missing the fairway could be the difference of a 9-iron into a green turning into a in a 5 or 6-iron.

From there, stick with the hottest players coming in. Of the ‘Big’ events this season, that is the majors, signature events, THE PLAYERS, Olympics and Playoffs, 12 of 15 winners have ranked inside the Top 10 in Total SG over the previous three and six months, including Matsuyama last week.

Additionally, 14 of the last 18 winners on Tour had finished inside the Top-25 at least 50% of the time over the previous three months prior to their win.

Taking a look at the weather, there is a chance of thunderstorms on both Thursday and Friday afternoon that may throw a wrinkle, or delay, into the mix this week, otherwise the forecast looks good with temperatures around 90 degrees and winds in the 10-15 mph range.

Finally, although it wasn’t need last week, with as close as Scheffler and Schauffele still came to winning, I would highly recommend playing the ‘Without Scheffler & Schauffele’ markets when it comes to Outright betting.

BMW Championship Outright Winner: Tony Finau +2200 ‘Without Scheffler & Schauffele’ market (FD)

From Nick Borrman:

Finau has been quietly playing steady golf as he ranks 5th in this field in Total SG over the last three months dating back to the PGA Championship in May. As a result, he has finished inside the Top-20 in seven of his last eight starts.

His approach play has been ridiculously good as he has gained an average of +1.31 SG Approach over the last three months, one of only three players averaging more than 1.0, and not coincidentally, the other two being those not in this betting market. He is certainly in good company.

In fact, on the season, Finau ranks 7th in Total SG and 2nd in SG Approach, but he has been held back by his flatstick where he ranks 121st in SG Putting.

However, he has turned that into a strength over the last two months as he has gained strokes on the greens in six straight events, averaging +0.55 per round which would place him in the Top-10 in SG Putting in this field.

Tony’s hot putter, combined with unknown greens which generally helps poor putters, could once again mask his biggest weakness and give him a chance to win this tournament on Sunday.

BMW Championship Top-10 Finish: Aaron Rai Top-10 +250 | Top-20 -125 ‘Including Ties’ market (MGM)

If you are looking for guys to keep it in play off the tee, Rai should come to mind as he ranks 1st in Driving Accuracy this season hitting just under 72% of fairways. He lacks distance, but with the elevation, that shouldn’t be a negative for him this week.

Rai also ranks 6th in SG Approach this season, 3rd in Greens in Regulation and a respectable 36th in SG Around the Green which combine to see him rank 7th in Total SG. Like Finau, his biggest weakness can be putting where he comes in at 61st this year.

However, he has gained strokes on the greens in five of his last seven starts which is a big reason he has cashed Top-20 tickets in seven of his last eight starts including his win a couple weeks ago at the Wyndham Championship.

Rai ranks in that important bucket of Top-10 Total SG over the last three months and provides a solid ‘under the radar’ price in any market you choose to play him this week.

See you next week for the finale, the Tour Championship!

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