Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview and Tournament Odds May 26-29
Charles Schwab Challenge Prediction and Odds
Following his improbable playoff victory at last week’s PGA Championship, Justin Thomas is the 8-to-1 favorite to go back-to-back at this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge in Texas. WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang share their thoughts on this week’s field, which contains plenty of big names on the odds board.
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| 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | May 26-29, 2022 |
| Where: | Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas |
| Defending Champ: | Jason Kokrak |
| Current Favorite(s): | Justin Thomas (+800 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; CBS on Saturday and Sunday |
Charles Schwab Challenge Odds Board
Justin Thomas entered last week’s PGA Championship No. 4 in Total Strokes Gained. So far in 2022, 12 of the 20 weekly winners have come from the top-10 in Total Strokes Gained entering the event.
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings):
[#1] Scottie Scheffler +2.59 (+1000) FD/DK
[#5] Justin Thomas +2.46 (+1200) FD
[#14] Will Zalatoris +1.99 (+2200) FD
[#7] Viktor Hovland +1.71 (+2000) DK
[#29] Max Homa +1.61 (+2500) FD/DK
[#39] Harold Varner III +1.47 (+6500) FD
[#10] Sam Burns +1.44 (+3500) DK
[#22] Sungjae Im +1.44 (+3500) DK
[#16] Billy Horschel +1.40 (+4800) FD
[#4] Collin Morikawa +1.37 (+1800) FD
Notables:
[#49] Mito Pereira +1.19 (+5000) FD/DK
[#31] Jason Kokrak +0.69 (+4800) FD
[#9] Jordan Spieth +0.63 (+1300) FD
The Charles Schwab Challenge Course & Field
This course draws a lot of comparison to Southern Hills last week as it was designed by the same man, Perry Maxwell. Last week, Jordan Spieth compared both courses, saying, “It (Southern Hills) reminds me a lot of Colonial, just a little bit on steroids, a little more undulation and driver in your hands more.”
That’s a fair comparison as Colonial is another par-70 but about 300 yards shorter at just over 7,200. The course demands precision, not power, with very fast greens of a similar size to last week.
Last year, Colonial ranked inside the three hardest courses in both fairways hit and greens in regulation. The last four winners averaged mid-teens under par but this year could prove more difficult with windy conditions projected for the weekend.
Speaking of weather, Thursday and Friday look very similar although winds could start to pick up as early as Friday afternoon so you may want to wait until late Wednesday to get the best forecast. For those that make the weekend, it will be hot with temps in the low 90s with wind gusts of 30mph expected.
Overall, the field of 120 is pretty strong with 11 of the top-25 in the world teeing it up this week including six of the top-10. However, history here tells us that experience is a must at this track as over the last 19 editions, the average number of starts for the winner is six while the average age has been 36. Last year’s winner, Jason Kokrak, fell right into that category in his seventh start at Colonial a week after his 36th birthday! The last first-time winner was a young Sergio Garcia in 2001.
Nick’s Betting Favorites
From Nick Borrman: Kokrak was one of just a few bombers that have won here as before him was Berger, Na, Rose, Kisner, Spieth and Kirk…Hardly the power hitters on Tour.
So, with that in mind, look for accuracy over power this week. It’s also probably a good idea to avoid those that were in the grind last week as staying up for another week is a very tough thing to do with conditions as hard as they were at the PGA Championship.
Sungjae Im +3500 (DK) | Top-10 +300 (DK)
If you are avoiding those that were in the thick of things last week, perhaps Im is the best player in that category as he missed the tournament entirely due to testing positive for COVID-19. All indications are that it was a minor bout so I don’t have any worry of stamina issues and he should be fresher than most big names this week.
Betting markets are often very reactive from the previous week’s results so I like his number which I feel is a little longer than it would have otherwise been had he been in contention (or in the tournament at all) last week.
The knock on Sungjae is that this is just his fourth start and he is only 24 years old but he did have a T10 here in 2020. He is very accurate, ranking No. 40 in Driving Accuracy and No. 6 in Greens in Regulation leading to a ranking of No. 14 in Total Strokes Gained this season. He has missed just two cuts in 16 starts this season with ten Top-25 finishes.
Jordan Spieth +1400 (Bet365) | Top-10 +180 (Bet365)
Not thrilled about getting this number on Spieth but there are very few players on Tour that show up at the same track year in and year out. Spieth is the epitome of ‘horse for the course’ players at places like Augusta, Pebble Beach, TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic) or any tournament in Texas like the Valero, Byron Nelson and this week at Colonial.
Spieth has made the cut in all nine tournaments he has played here including a win and three runner-ups. His worst finish was a T32 in 2019 when he was playing at his worst level, but otherwise, has finished no worse than 14th in his other eight starts.
Spieth does tend to struggle with his driver accuracy, but he has been much better of late averaging +0.67 SG Off the Tee over the last three months. He is accurate with his irons though ranking No. 24 in Greens in Regulation.
Spieth had a lot of attention last week after winning and finishing runner-up in his two starts prior to the PGA Championship, but he never really got anything going at Southern Hills finishing T34. This looks like a perfect bounce back tournament.
BEST BET Brian Harman Top-40 -140 (DK)
Harman loves Colonial and he’s having a solid season to boot. After missing the cut in his very first start in 2012, Harman is since a perfect 8-for-8 with his worst finish being a T31 including six top-25s and three top-10s. Proving he likes these types of tracks, he was T34 last week at a very similar Southern Hills.
Harman is very accurate off the tee ranking No. 11 in Driving Accuracy this season while also ranking No. 25 in Proximity to the Hole. He ranks just outside the top-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months coming in at No. 15 so I’ll leave him off my outright card, but he is positive in all five measured categories and his confidence here should only boost that.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview
Those that played well in last week’s PGA Championship should feel comfortable at Colonial Country Club this week because both courses were designed by the same guy. On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman share their thoughts on this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge, including the favorites at the top of the leaderboard and some featured head-to-head matchups.
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